Reference News, March 15 report: The U.S. "National Interest" bi-monthly website published an article titled "The New Economics of War" on March 6, authored by Nico Lang, a senior researcher at the Munich Security Conference. Excerpts follow:

The Iranian navy ship was sunk, thousands of targets inside the country were destroyed by air strikes, and a large number of drones and missiles were intercepted. Despite this, Israel and the United States are secretly worried. What if Iran continues to launch more and more cheap drones, missiles, and small boats for attacks?

This scenario keeps playing out across the Gulf battlefield: a small drone approaches a U.S. destroyer at high speed, and the ship's defense system immediately reacts with expensive sensors and intercepting missiles. These drones cost only a few thousand dollars, while the countermeasures may cost millions of dollars, and that destroyer is just one of many ships needing protection.

This reveals a new economics of war: cheap beats expensive, scale beats quality, and speed beats traditional. Iran relies on a large number of drones, missiles, and small boats not because they have never had problems in production, refinement, or operation over the years, but because they are sufficient to overload the defense systems. They force the enemy to pay a huge cost and reverse the cost-benefit ratio.

Every successful defense eventually leads to economic losses. The expensive radar and sensors of the U.S. and the West can cost billions of dollars, and it takes several years to replace them. If they are destroyed by relatively simple drones, this war may ultimately lead to strategic failure.

Tehran is betting on this new economics of war, and whether it will ultimately win remains to be seen. This war also marks a turning point: the old Western concept of technological superiority and rapid, precise military strikes is breaking down. Countries like Iran are forcing the defending side to repeatedly respond with expensive countermeasures against wave after wave of low-cost attacks.

This is nothing new. For years, this new military reality has already been evident in Ukraine and elsewhere. However, due to complacency, arrogance, and bureaucracy, Western political decision-makers, military planners, and arms manufacturers have basically ignored this so far.

If you establish a military position at too high a cost, you have already declared defeat; if you suffer losses at a low cost, you still have the ability to act; if you suffer losses at a high cost, you will suffer heavy losses regardless.

This is most evident in the air defense in the Persian Gulf region. When Iran and Russia produce drones and missiles on an industrial scale and continuously expand their output, Western air defense system and guided missile manufacturers have hardly increased their industrial output during this time. The missiles of high-performance systems such as the "Thaad" and "Patriot" missile systems are currently being used up in just a few days of a whole year's production.

Around the world, Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and even Gulf countries are competing for a limited supply. But even if you pour in more money, it seems impossible to accelerate the production process. On the other hand, Iran and Russia quickly replenish their stocks of drones and missiles.

In this context, NATO countries are in a bad situation. We previously built high-end systems, and we are still ordering high-end systems. We once were obsessed with high-tech and precision technology, and we are still obsessed with it now. However, high-quality without quantity cannot provide protection, and focusing only on high-tech without considering production speed is ineffective. If the enemy relies on scale, our effectiveness will ultimately be a fantasy.

A perfect system is no longer the decisive factor. The "Patriot" missile is indeed a high-performance system, but if we don't have enough guided missiles, can't quickly replace them, or can't afford them, even the "Patriot" will eventually become a victim of "asymmetric overload."

The new economics of war forces us to think differently. Recently, the U.S. military announced that it would replicate and deploy cheap drones that mimic Iran's "Shahed" drone. In today's battlefield, a large number of simple and durable systems are needed, and they can be quickly activated and scaled up in case of serious situations. This requires political decisions that prioritize speed, including a set of science and technology and industry policies aimed at mastering the initiative with security as the core mission. (Translated by Ge Xuelai)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7617458801924014633/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.