Reference Message Network reported on April 7 that the European Council on Foreign Relations website published an article titled "Le Pen's Mistake: How This French Politician Being Convicted Will Boost the Far Right in Europe" on April 1. The author of the article is Celia Belin, a senior policy researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The article is compiled as follows: Marine Le Pen was sentenced for misappropriation of EU funds, and this verdict is causing shockwaves in French and European politics. Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison, two of which are suspended, and is banned from holding public office for five years. Therefore, although Le Pen has announced her intention to appeal, the leader of the far-right National Rally may not be able to run in the 2027 presidential election. Only by accelerating the appeal within the next 18 months (an unlikely scenario) can she possibly clear her name and be eligible to run. This verdict will resonate in French politics and influence public opinion battles regarding Western democracy. It will make the widely circulated claim pushed by the U.S. government more reasonable, namely that elites have taken over the Western political system, fundamentally going against the wishes of ordinary people. Populist forces on both sides of the Atlantic will benefit greatly. Far-right politicians are vying to publicly support Le Pen and condemn what they consider "actions violating democratic principles." As Donald Trump Jr., the son of the U.S. president, posted on X, they believe that "JD Vance is right," referring to the remarks made by the U.S. vice president at the Munich Security Conference regarding Europe allowing populism to "shut up" its opposition. In France, the verdict strengthens the party's narrative about "judicial bias and persecution by the political mainstream." The party will likely continue this narrative after the 2024 parliamentary elections when tactical voting by other parties prevented the National Rally from gaining the position of prime minister. For the National Rally, Le Pen's conviction only reinforces the view that "the system is against them," a narrative that can consolidate their voter base leading up to 2027 (or earlier). This also provides an excellent opportunity to embrace the global movement led by Trump. However, the verdict poses significant challenges for the National Rally. This contradicts Le Pen's strategy over the past 13 years, where she has worked to distance the National Rally from her father's National Front's extremist roots, transforming it into a normal right-wing party capable of governing. The "tie strategy" refers to legitimizing the National Rally's ability to govern by adopting the attire and behavior of mainstream parties. However, the expected strong reaction to the verdict could severely damage this strategy. Moreover, the National Rally seems to have misjudged the trial's outcome. Le Pen is not yet prepared for her political legacy and power transition. Losing popular support for Le Pen could jeopardize the party's survival. Jordan Bardella, the chairman of the National Rally, is likely to succeed Le Pen as the party's presidential candidate. Although Bardella's popularity is rising—60% of National Rally voters prefer him over Le Pen—the vacuum left by Le Pen could trigger factional infighting within the party, weakening its strength. Beyond France, the court's ruling directly impacts the heated discussions among far-right forces in the transatlantic region regarding democracy and political legitimacy. The verdict in the U.S. has already been described as further evidence of the decline of democracy on the European continent. On both sides of the Atlantic, this could further divide the narratives of far-right and mainstream political forces regarding the essence of democratic governance. The verdict will have important implications across the broader European landscape. In the short term, it may lead to a surge in support for anti-establishment movements across Europe, undermining trust in democratic institutions. Like Trump's legal troubles in the U.S., Le Pen's conviction may become a "bugle call" for the entire Western far-right and populist forces, giving them more reason to claim that the current system is actively working to "shut them up"—even though illegal activities were indeed involved in both cases. A country's verdict can support another country's figures because these parties depict "elites" as cross-border enemies. Ultimately, this verdict is unlikely to mark the end of Le Pen's political career. She is one of the most popular political figures in France and may return with even greater strength in the future—perhaps even reviving her political career after 2027 or potentially being pardoned by Bardella if he wins the presidential election. Middle-of-the-road political forces in France and elsewhere will face the difficult task of dealing with Le Pen's conviction. While defending judicial fairness and the rule of law, they must also be aware that this could fuel the fires of Trumpism. (Compiled/Translated by Yang Xinpeng) Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7490565666190950951/ Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author alone. Please express your attitude by using the "upvote/downvote" buttons below.