On April 28, Asif, Pakistan's Minister of National Defence, told Reuters in an exclusive interview that the current situation at the India-Pakistan border was the most tense since 2019. "A war between the two countries may break out within the next two to four days!" The same day, The Times of India disclosed that the Indian Army had dispatched three mechanized infantry brigades to Jammu and Kashmir. Satellite image analysis showed that artillery units deployed along the Line of Control by both sides had increased by 40% compared to last month.

The direct trigger for this crisis was the terrorist attack on April 22 in Pulwama, Indian-controlled Kashmir. It is worth noting that India's Ministry of Water Resources announced the suspension of downstream water supply of the Indus River, which directly violated Article II, Clause 4 of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty regarding the prohibition of "harmful engineering projects."

Since the partition in 1947, India and Pakistan have engaged in three full-scale wars (in 1947, 1965, and 1971) and numerous military conflicts over the dispute over Kashmir's sovereignty. This water resources dispute has pushed the contradictions between the two countries into a new dimension—according to World Bank data, the downstream irrigation of the Indus River irrigates 45% of Pakistan's arable land (approximately 17 million hectares), supporting the livelihoods of 60% of the country's agricultural population.

India's adoption of the "water weaponization" strategy has multiple considerations: exerting pressure using its upstream advantage (India controls 19% of the Indus River's runoff); agriculture accounts for 24% of Pakistan's GDP, and the cut-off of water supply could cause a 2.3% loss of GDP; breaking the historical precedent of maintaining water supply during the 1965 and 1971 wars.

At this critical moment, on April 29, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi proposed three points in his call with the Pakistani side:

Supporting Pakistan's firm implementation of counter-terrorism actions. Supporting Pakistan in safeguarding its own sovereignty and security interests. China supports conducting fair investigations as soon as possible and hopes that both sides will remain restrained, move toward each other, and ease tensions.

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State said on April 30 at a press conference that they had initiated an "emergency engagement procedure" and sent Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman to visit both New Delhi and Islamabad simultaneously. The Russian Foreign Ministry then called for an expanded "Moscow model" meeting, suggesting the inclusion of regional stakeholders such as Afghanistan and Iran.

So, what is the likelihood of a large-scale war breaking out between India and Pakistan now? A latest model from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London shows: probability of limited conventional conflict within 30 days: 42%; probability of the situation escalating into a full-scale war: 7.8%; probability of nuclear weapons being misjudged and used: 1.2% (an increase of 0.4% compared to 2019).

The key risk points are:

First, the decision-making pressure brought by India's general election cycle (April 19 - June 1);

Second, the activity trajectory of the Kashmir-based extremist organization "Jaish-e-Mohammed." If another attack occurs, it could further escalate tensions;

Third, the substantial impact of the cutoff of the Indus River water supply on Pakistan's spring farming (the critical window period ends before May 10).

The Modi government faces a three-dimensional decision-making dilemma:

Domestically in India: balancing nationalist demands with economic realities; regionally: China's $4.6 billion investment in Gwadar Port and massive investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor may strengthen strategic support for Pakistan; additionally, if a war breaks out with Pakistan, it could cause severe damage to India's economy and possibly lead to tactical and strategic setbacks.

It is evident that South Asia's security architecture is undergoing its most severe test since the 1998 nuclear tests. The essence of the current situation is the叠加of crises in water resource security, counter-terrorism games, and nuclear deterrence balance. The wisdom of decision-makers lies not only in avoiding war but also in establishing a new type of security paradigm beyond zero-sum games. Constructive intervention from the international community may help South Asia break free from the historical cycle of "security dilemmas," and China will undoubtedly play a positive role in defusing tensions in this crisis.

Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499012909490651700/

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