【By Observer Net, Wang Yi】Faced with U.S. President Trump's request to send warships to escort in the Strait of Hormuz, Japan, which has always kept in step with the United States, also released a subtle signal of refusal.

As the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, on March 14, Trump specifically mentioned countries such as Japan, South Korea, France, and the UK, urging them to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the safety of oil transportation.

According to Kyodo News, Prime Minister Asahi Hayato responded in a parliamentary speech on the 16th, saying that they are considering what measures can be taken within the legal limits to ensure the safety of Japanese ships and their crews in the Middle East region.

However, when asked about how she would respond if Trump directly requested it during the meeting, Asahi Hayato did not give a direct answer, stating that it was difficult to respond to hypothetical situations. Asahi Hayato is scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington on the 19th.

On the 16th, Defense Minister Koizumi Shinji also stated in parliament that Japan currently has no plan to dispatch ships to the Strait of Hormuz, "the most important thing is our efforts, including diplomatic efforts, to ease the situation."

The head of the Liberal Democratic Party's Policy Research Council, Kobayashi Taro, also told NHK on the 15th that although the law does not completely rule out the possibility of sending Japanese warships for escort, given that the current conflict is still ongoing, this decision would face "a very high threshold" and require "careful consideration."

Bloomberg News on the 16th interpreted that this statement means that even Japan, which rarely deviates from the U.S., has sent a polite and subtle "refusal," resonating with other countries not previously consulted by the Trump administration.

It is widely believed that Trump's request for warship escorts has put Asahi Hayato in a dilemma before her upcoming meeting on the 19th.

Japan had originally hoped to use this summit to reiterate the U.S.-Japan alliance, discuss cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, and shipbuilding, but Trump's request has placed Asahi Hayato between assisting the U.S. in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Japan's strict constitutional restrictions on participation in overseas military actions.

In October 2025, Trump met with Asahi Hayato in Tokyo. White House website

Analysts believe that Trump may use the meeting to ask Japan to take on more responsibilities, including participating in escort missions or providing military support, to demonstrate that the U.S. is not acting alone in the Iran issue.

Jeff Kingston, director of the Asia Studies Program at Temple University Japan, said that Trump clearly wants to show the world that the U.S. is not acting alone, but standing "shoulder to shoulder" with its allies. However, he said, "If Trump doesn't ask Japan to make a military commitment, Asahi Hayato would be very happy."

The South China Morning Post on the 16th pointed out that the escalating Middle East crisis brings back memories of the situation in 2015. At that time, then-Japanese Prime Minister安倍晋三 (Shinzo Abe) pledged to provide logistical support for military operations conducted by the U.S. and others in the Middle East. Now, with Asahi Hayato, known for her hardline stance and political style similar to Abe, facing similar dilemmas, especially after reports emerged that an oil tanker owned by a Japanese company became a target of Iranian attacks.

Kingston analyzed that Asahi Hayato certainly wants to avoid this dilemma, but she might be willing to provide logistical support as before, as long as it does not involve sending Japanese forces into dangerous areas.

At the same time, Asahi Hayato needs to convey a message to Iran that Tokyo still hopes to continue as its energy partner, purchasing oil from Iran.

About 95% of Japan's crude oil supply and 11% of its liquefied natural gas imports depend on the Middle East, and most energy transport must go through the Strait of Hormuz. If the route is blocked, Japan's energy supply could quickly face pressure.

Data shows that Japan's current oil reserves amount to about 254 days of domestic demand, including 146 days of national strategic reserves, 101 days of enterprise statutory inventory, and 7 days of inventory formed through cooperation with oil-producing countries. Liquefied natural gas reserves are less than a month.

Facing rising oil prices, the Japanese government began releasing 80 million barrels of oil reserves starting on the 16th, equivalent to 45 days of Japan's oil supply, marking the largest release since the country established its national oil reserve system in 1978.

"This is a traditional 'tightrope diplomacy,' trying to keep everyone satisfied," Kingston said. Asahi Hayato may need to adopt a 'comprehensive diplomacy' like Abe, flexibly adjusting positions according to changing circumstances.

A scholar, who provides consulting services to Japanese government agencies, said that Asahi Hayato is in a "very difficult position" because she cannot openly "support" or directly "condemn" Trump's actions.

The scholar said that if she unreservedly supports the U.S. strike actions, it would mean denying Japan's long-standing principle of upholding the rule of law in international disputes. But if she publicly opposes and says that Trump's order to attack is wrong, future cooperation with the Trump administration would become very difficult.

He warned that Asahi Hayato must be "very cautious" when responding to the U.S. request. The scholar bluntly stated that if the U.S. asks Japan to send troops, her answer must be clear "no," because it is not in line with Japan's constitution and would not be supported by the Japanese public. Even a relatively realistic request such as providing logistical support is still "somewhat unacceptable" to Japanese society. Polls show that the majority of Japanese voters oppose this conflict.

However, some right-wing forces in Japan are using potential oil shortages and stubborn inflation issues to urge the government to increase actions against Iran. Trump may also ask Japan to produce missiles to supplement the large number of munitions consumed by the U.S. in its actions against Iran.

Additionally, Asahi Hayato may try to please Trump by participating in the U.S. "Gold Dome" missile defense system. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan is negotiating the details of joining the "Gold Dome" missile defense system, and this news may be announced during the upcoming meeting between the two leaders.

The Financial Times on the 15th analyzed that Japan, constrained by its post-war peace constitution, cannot intervene in ongoing conflicts in other countries. Once the war officially ends, the mines laid by Iran may be classified as "remnants," at which point Japan could participate in the operation.

Asahi Hayato said on the 12th that it is difficult to predict when mines will transition from weapons to "remnants," and "given this uncertainty," Japan has not considered deploying military assets to the region to prepare for future mine-clearing operations.

Christopher Johnstone, a former expert on Japan at the Pentagon and CIA, said that although Tokyo may have anticipated Trump's request, it would place Asahi Hayato in a very difficult situation before her first visit to the White House.

"This is a risky decision," Johnstone said, "which could put Japanese ships in danger."

On the other hand, "The 2015 amendment to Japanese law seems to have laid the groundwork for such actions. Considering Japan's reliance on Middle Eastern oil, Asahi Hayato would find it difficult to refuse."

After the Gulf War in 1991, Japan once deployed minesweepers to the Middle East, marking the first overseas military deployment of Japan since World War II. Since then, although Japan has sent ships to protect vessels traveling to the Middle East, it has avoided the Strait of Hormuz to avoid being seen as involved in actual conflicts.

Dennis Wilder, a senior advisor to the Bush administration on Asian affairs, said that the current situation is a "real test" of Asahi Hayato's desire for Japan to join the ranks of global military powers.

He said, "In 2004, then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made a bold decision to send Japanese Self-Defense Forces to Iraq to participate in reconstruction and humanitarian aid at the request of President Bush. But in this case, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces must be prepared for actual combat operations."

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7617745937703895603/

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