South Korean media: The Strait of Hormuz is blocked again; signs of Iran repairing nuclear facilities emerge… MOU framework collapses in less than a month

On local time the 12th, Iran announced: "We will fully block the Strait of Hormuz until U.S. forces cease their intervention. This strait is more important than dozens of atomic bombs—we must hold onto it." Due to Iran's attacks on merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. conducted three air strikes on the 7th–8th and on the same day. In response, Iran retaliated by re-blocking the strait. Meanwhile, there are also indications that Iran may be working on repairing its nuclear facilities. The three core pillars of the ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed last month between the two nations were: opening international waterways through the Strait of Hormuz, ending the use of force, and maintaining Iran’s nuclear program in its current state. Although both sides continue secret dialogues, due to repeated military confrontations and mutual blame, the MOU framework has effectively collapsed, and concerns are growing that the possibility of ultimately reaching a peace agreement is becoming increasingly remote.

On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump said, "We carried out very intense bombing against Iran," calling Iran "a very evil and deranged entity." Iranian negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated: "The era of unilateral agreements is over. If you don’t abide by your commitments, you will pay the price." Ghalibaf emphasized that Article 5 of the MOU, which outlines management of the Strait of Hormuz, includes provisions stating "Iran shall take necessary measures." This effectively claims that Iran’s recent attacks on merchant ships in the Strait—used by the U.S. as justification for its air raids—are legitimate actions under the MOU. While the U.S. insists on guaranteeing free passage through this international waterway, Iran maintains its right to control the strait, with many noting that this fundamental disagreement was already the biggest obstacle to negotiations before the MOU was signed.

The clause regarding the “status quo” of Iran’s nuclear program (Articles 8–9) is now also in grave danger. On the same day, CNN reported that Iran is currently repairing a facility storing high-performance explosives for nuclear weapons, damaged in previous airstrikes. Footage was also captured showing vehicles entering and exiting tunnels suspected to be part of an underground nuclear site. Under these circumstances, both sides have launched large-scale retaliatory airstrikes, rendering Article 1 of the MOU—“immediate and permanent cessation of military operations across all fronts”—completely meaningless. Each side blames the other for first violating the agreement, and both continue to engage in a tense “tough against tough” standoff.

On that day, the United States deployed fighter jets, drones, and precision-guided munitions to conduct large-scale strikes targeting approximately 140 military sites across Iran, including air and ground surveillance radars, missile and drone storage depots, missile and drone launch sites, and surface-to-air missile launchers. Explosions were heard on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as in southern Iran’s Asaluyeh and Bushehr regions. Asaluyeh hosts Iran’s largest oil refinery, while Bushehr is home to Iran’s only commercial nuclear power plant. Bombardments were also observed in the key southern port city of Bandar Abbas and Sirri, as well as in southeastern Chahbahar—indicating that the U.S. launched widespread air strikes across Iran. The U.S. Central Command stated: "Iran had the opportunity to comply with the MOU but chose to break the agreement. America is making Iran pay a heavy price. Despite Iran’s attacks, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations, we will ensure freedom of navigation."

Iran also launched massive retaliation against U.S. bases in the Middle East. The Revolutionary Guard claimed they destroyed the U.S. command and control center and MQ-9 drone hangar at Jordan’s Prince Hassan Air Base using ballistic missiles. They further announced drone attacks on a Patriot missile battery, ammunition depot, and radar installations at a Kuwaiti military base, as well as on U.S. communications and radar facilities at the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters stationed in Bahrain. Additionally, Iran stated it fired multiple ballistic missiles toward Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and attacked U.S. aircraft carrier refueling facilities at Duqm Port in Oman. Iran warned the U.S.: "If you take further action, you will face even harsher retaliation."

Seizing the occasion of Ali Khamenei’s funeral, hardline sentiment within Iran’s leadership has grown stronger, with analysts suggesting this increases the threat of renewed war. Benam Ben-Talablu, an Iran expert at the U.S.-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told The Washington Post: "Hardliners in Iran believe the regime’s survival does not depend on American intervention, but on escalating tensions. Now they no longer seek gray-zone conflict with the U.S.—they want direct confrontation." Recently feeling threatened by assassination attempts, Trump said: "If they try to assassinate me, we will completely destroy and dismantle Iran." In response, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared: "Retribution will definitely be carried out. It’s just a fantasy for Trump and others to imagine dying peacefully in their own beds."

However, with the November mid-term elections approaching, rising gasoline prices represent the worst political burden for Trump, leading many to believe that reigniting full-scale confrontation with Iran would be too costly for him. Iran is also suffering from severe economic hardship and waning public morale, inevitably raising questions about whether breaking the Joint MOU framework truly serves its interests. Despite Trump’s anger prompting the order for airstrikes and Iran’s defiant response, both sides continue ongoing negotiations. Mediation efforts by countries such as Qatar and Pakistan have accelerated in hopes of preventing the worst-case scenario of war escalation. With such diplomatic pressure, it is likely that the U.S. and Iran will hold further talks in Switzerland this week to determine the future of the joint MOU framework.

Source: Chosun Ilbo

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1870568495641929/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.