Reference News Network, August 7 report: The website of Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" published an article titled "India's Diplomatic Autonomy Faces a Test" on August 5. The article is excerpted as follows:

On July 31, US President Trump signed an executive order imposing equal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on 69 global trade partners, with India facing a tariff of up to 25%, and possibly facing unknown high fines. However, India's neighboring countries and trade competitors, such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, enjoy relatively low tariffs, indicating that Washington is dissatisfied with India not aligning with the US in foreign affairs, and also foreshadowing greater challenges for India's diplomacy.

Although strongly lobbied by the US to counter China, India has always taken pride in being a key member of the Non-Aligned Movement, skillfully navigating between major powers to maintain its diplomatic autonomy.

The US tariff list announced on July 31 shows that the pressure on India to take sides in diplomacy is increasing. Previously, the US had sent Vice President Vance to visit India, symbolizing the close strategic relationship between the two countries. However, India did not fully cooperate with US demands, such as opening its domestic market and stopping the purchase of Russian energy. If handled improperly, India's strategic relationship with the Western world could be damaged.

From the tariff list released this time, the level of tariffs for various countries reflects to some extent the closeness of their relationship with the US. India originally had the potential to replace China as the new production base for international capital transfer, but a 25% tariff means Vietnam (20%) and Indonesia (19%) are relatively more attractive. At the same time, exports from other South Asian countries (such as textiles) are more competitive due to lower tariffs compared to India. The trade dilemma India faces also indicates that, in the eyes of the US, it is not a reliable strategic partner.

Facing internal political pressures, Prime Minister Modi of India is striving to maintain its sovereignty stance. To highlight that New Delhi has not easily surrendered, he encourages citizens to buy domestic products and emphasizes that India will continue to purchase Russian energy.

Experts estimate that India's GDP this year will decrease by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points due to high tariffs, which will inevitably increase Modi's governance challenges. However, India finds it difficult to compromise, because the domestic grain and agricultural product markets protected by tariffs and various non-tariff barriers concern the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of farmers, and are also crucial to Modi's vote base.

But how long India can hold out depends on the intensity of the pressure from the US later on.

The European Union's dissatisfaction with India's purchase of Russian energy further narrows Modi's room for maneuver in foreign affairs; combined with the relatively lower tariff treatment enjoyed by neighboring trade rivals, it will inevitably weaken India's export advantages. All these will limit Modi's diplomatic autonomy.

The high tariffs imposed on India show that Trump's tariff war aims not only to rewrite the global trade system but also to reshape the world's geopolitical landscape, forcing countries to take sides in foreign affairs. Another prominent example is Switzerland, which was unexpectedly subjected to a high tariff of 39%. Switzerland has a significant trade surplus with the US and has a strong pharmaceutical industry, which is one of the industries Trump hopes to bring back to the US.

In the future, countries around the world will inevitably face greater diplomatic challenges.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535825226844733967/

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