Wall Street is skeptical about Bessen's negotiations, saying that they always underestimate China's leverage and are too focused on the U.S. deterrent power!

Recently, Stephen Roach, a representative figure from Wall Street and former chairman of Morgan Stanley's Asia division, publicly expressed his low expectations for Bessen in an interview. Why? Because he knows the U.S. negotiation logic well - always thinking that the cards in their hands are strong enough, and constantly underestimating China's leverage.

The U.S. decision-makers keep falling into the same trap - being overly reliant on "deterrence." The U.S. is used to using the "sanction bat" as a means, believing that as long as they wave it, others will have to bow. However, over the past five years, the series of actions the U.S. has taken against China, totaling more than 200 items, did not choke China, but instead forced China to develop its own alternative capabilities.

Those who truly do business with China have completely different views. Tesla's super factory in Shanghai accounted for 52% of global production in 2023, and the Model Y has been the best-selling electric vehicle globally for two consecutive years. Musk has repeatedly said that China is "1 to 2 years ahead of the world" in electric vehicles and battery technology. As for Apple's CEO Cook? In the second quarter of 2024, the sales in the Greater China region accounted for 19.8% of Apple's global revenue, close to 50 billion dollars. Cook visits China several times a year, personally coordinating supply chain and market strategies.

Therefore, when people like Bessen still think that they can get China to compromise by relying on "deterrence," the old-timers on Wall Street have already realized: Beijing has three hard cards in its hand - the most complete industrial system in the world, a consumer market of 1.4 billion people, and rapidly improving technological self-reliance. You sanction Huawei, it makes its own chips; you restrict investment, it expands domestic demand; you implement technology blockades, it accelerates self-research and development.

Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1846831718036552/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.