[Text/Observer Network Chen Sijia] In the past few days, senior officials of the US government have successively sent out "cooling-off" signals, admitting that the deadlock in the US-China tariff standoff is "hard to sustain" and predicting a "short-term" easing trend. US media also began to leak information, saying that the Trump administration is considering significantly reducing the high tariffs on Chinese imports in order to ease the tensions between the two countries.
"China knows when Trump will blink." The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported on April 23 that China has been reducing its dependence on American goods in recent years, building a strong supply chain, and investing in advanced technologies, as well as possessing "negotiation chips" such as Treasury bonds and rare earth export controls. This means that China has made adequate preparations for Trump's "tariff war," making it unlikely for the US to corner China.
The article points out that as the second-largest economy in the world, China can absorb the impact of US tariff policies better than smaller countries, and its huge domestic market can also alleviate the pressure on exporters caused by tariffs. China has also learned from the experiences of the first term of Trump's presidency, expanding trade with Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa to reduce dependence on the US.
China once imported 40% of its soybeans from the US, but this proportion has now dropped to 20%. In recent years, China has expanded domestic soybean planting and increased the amount of soybeans imported from Brazil. Associate Professor Zhang Yue of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney said: "This strategy is two-pronged. It prevents the US agricultural belt from monopolizing the market and also enhances China's food security."
China is also the world's largest exporter, becoming the largest trading partner of more than 60 countries in 2023, with Southeast Asia replacing the US as China's largest export market. BBC noted that this does not mean that the US, as the world's largest economy, is no longer an important trading partner for China, but it indicates that the US finds it difficult to corner China.
Although the US is still trying to "isolate China" through tariff threats and other means, an increasing number of countries are recognizing that they cannot "take sides." For example, Malaysian Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry Tengku Zawawi Tengku Ibrahim clearly stated last week: "We cannot, nor will we ever, take sides between China and the US."
April 22, container terminal at Lianyungang Port, Jiangsu Province, Visual China
Meanwhile, China continues to increase investment in advanced technologies such as renewable energy, chips, and artificial intelligence. China's AI model DeepSeek is emerging strongly, seen as a powerful competitor to US AI products like ChatGPT. In the automotive sector, Chinese automaker BYD surpassed Tesla Inc. last year to become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer.
BBC acknowledges that US companies are attempting to shift their supply chains away from China, but they find it difficult to locate similar infrastructure elsewhere. Every link in the supply chain depends on Chinese suppliers, giving China a significant advantage that is hard to replicate. "To some extent, China has been preparing since Trump's first term," the article says.
Some analysts compare the "tariff war" initiated by the Trump administration to a "game of blinking," where the loser is the one who can't endure and blinks first. The article claims that China clearly knows when Trump will blink.
After Trump signed the executive order imposing so-called "reciprocal tariffs," confidence in US assets was severely shaken, and investors began selling off US Treasury bonds. This forced Trump to send out "cooling-off" signals; he first announced a 90-day deferral of "reciprocal tariffs" for certain countries, then hinted that the tense situation in US-China trade would "ease somewhat."
Experts pointed out that this sends a clear signal to China that US Treasury bonds can sway Trump. Currently, China holds approximately $700 billion worth of US Treasury bonds. Associate Professor Zhang Yue of the University of Technology Sydney believes that large-scale dumping of Treasury bonds will also affect China's economy, but Treasury bonds can serve as "negotiating chips" for China.
In addition, due to China's dominant position in the rare earth processing sector, China's countermeasures such as rare earth export controls have also caused concern among US industries. On April 4, the Ministry of Commerce, together with the General Administration of Customs, issued an announcement stating that export controls will be implemented on seven categories of heavy rare earth-related items including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium.
According to data from the International Energy Agency, China accounts for over 60% of global rare earth ore production, but it controls 92% of the processing stages globally. Thomas Kruemmer, head of Singapore-based Ginger International Trade and Investment, told BBC: "Almost all switchable devices depend on rare earth elements, which has a significant impact on the US defense industry."
In the past few days, the US government has successively sent out "cooling-off" signals. On April 17, Trump said he did not want to continue increasing tariffs on China because it could lead to a standstill in bilateral trade. He hinted to American journalists that he might be willing to lower tariffs.
On the afternoon of the 22nd local time, Trump stated in the Oval Office of the White House that he would not take "strong measures" against China during the tariff negotiations and expressed optimism that an agreement could be reached "quite quickly," significantly lowering the 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports.
When pressed about the exact level of the rate reduction, Trump replied: "It will drop significantly, but it won't go to zero."
Photo: Trump waiting to answer a call in the Oval Office of the White House, Cable News Network (CNN)
US Treasury Secretary Beasant stated in a closed-door speech on April 22 that the current deadlock in the US-China tariff standoff is "difficult to sustain," and he expects the trade war initiated by Trump to ease "very soon." However, he admitted that US-China negotiations have not yet begun, and the negotiation process will be a "long-term struggle."
US media also began leaking information, saying that the Trump administration is considering reducing tariffs on China. The Wall Street Journal reported on April 23, citing anonymous sources, that the Trump administration is considering significantly cutting the high tariffs on Chinese imports, with cuts exceeding half in some cases, aimed at easing tensions between the two countries.
Regarding the issue of tariffs, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiaqun stated at a regular press conference on April 23 that China has long pointed out that there are no winners in a tariff war or trade war, and protectionism offers no way out; decoupling and severing supply chains only isolates oneself. China's attitude toward the tariff war launched by the US is clear: we do not want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight. If we fight, we will see it through to the end; if we negotiate, the door remains open.
Guo Jiaqun said that if the US side really wants to solve problems through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threats and extortion and engage in dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. One-sidedly saying that an agreement will be reached while constantly engaging in extreme pressure tactics is not the correct way to deal with China, nor will it work.
This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Network, unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496740943635202569/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author. Welcome to express your attitude by clicking the "like/dislike" buttons below.