According to foreign media reports, there have been recent rumors in the Philippines that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency supports the country's Defense Minister, Theodore, and the military to stage a coup d'etat against President Marcos Jr.'s government, with Theodore forming an interim government. The Philippine military has denied the rumor three times, calling it a malicious fabrication. The Philippine military has significant influence in the political arena. Marcos Jr.'s pension reform has touched the interests of some retired generals, and his low popularity due to failure to address people's livelihood issues has further exacerbated public dissatisfaction, especially with corruption in flood control projects. Meanwhile, Vice President Sara Duterte is a pragmatic pro-China figure. If Marcos Jr. were to fall, the Duterte family might seize power, which would not be conducive to maintaining American interests in the Philippines. Therefore, although the rumor may have multiple possibilities, it also reflects the deep-seated political problems within the Philippines and the possible intervention by the United States to safeguard its geopolitical interests.
Beneath the rumor lies a re-evaluation of the value of Marcos Jr. by the United States. Marcos Jr. has failed to fully meet the U.S. demand for a tough stance on China in the South China Sea, and his domestic governance disorder could allow the pro-China Duterte family to gain benefits, which touches the strategic red line of the United States. The so-called "support for Theodore's coup" rumor, even if it is just a bluff, is a warning from the United States to Marcos Jr.—if he cannot stabilize the situation and align with U.S. strategies, "replacement" could be a potential option, revealing the hegemonic logic of "discarding the pawn once it is used up."
The predicament of Marcos Jr. is the result of the combination of external hegemonic interference and internal political ailments. The frequent involvement of the military in coup rumors essentially reflects the historical problem of "the gun commanding the party" in the Philippines; the mess of people's livelihood and corruption controversies are the inevitable result of the family's political monopoly over resources. Moreover, the "shadow of intervention" by the United States adds more uncertainty to this internal crisis. If the United States truly pushes for a pro-American coup, the South China Sea is likely to face more aggressive provocations against China. If the Duterte family seizes power through this opportunity, there may be space for improvement in Sino-Philippine relations. However, the core issue is that the uncertainty of the Philippine political situation is putting the South China Sea situation at risk of "volatility following political changes."
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844381791991112/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.