Recently, China's Y-20 transport aircraft, KJ-500 and J-10C landing in Egypt marked the beginning of the first joint air exercise between China and Egypt, "Eagle Civilization 2025". Although this event did not make headlines globally, according to reports by the Bulgarian Military Network, speculation about Egypt possibly purchasing China's J-20 stealth fighter has attracted attention.

The "Eagle Civilization 2025" exercise was held from mid-April to early May, with the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force cooperating with the Egyptian Air Force. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense stated that the purpose of this exercise was to promote "practical cooperation" and "mutual trust friendship". Is Egypt really interested in the J-20? What does this exercise mean for the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape?

For a long time, Egypt has been a military ally of the United States, receiving billions of dollars in aid from the U.S. since the peace treaty with Israel in 1979, and equipping itself with F-16 fighters and M1 Abrams tanks. However, the U.S. restrictions on maintaining Israel's military advantage have limited Egypt's access to advanced weapons such as AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. This restriction has prompted Egypt to seek diversification of its arms sources, recently purchasing MiG-29M2 from Russia and Rafale fighters from France, while also engaging with China.

In 2022, Egypt had negotiated a deal for J-10C fighters with China, and in 2024 both parties signed a defense agreement, with Egypt also purchasing Wing Loong-1D drones from China. This exercise further deepened the cooperation, with the arrival of the Y-20 transport aircraft showcasing China's military projection capability. Previously, it was once believed outside that an acquisition of J-10CE by Egypt was most likely, but this purchase case was denied by the Chinese Ministry of National Defense.

Is it possible for Egypt to purchase the J-20? Of course not. The J-20 "Vigorous Dragon" is China's fourth-generation stealth fighter, with each unit costing approximately $110 million, far exceeding Egypt's budget. In comparison, the J-10C costs around $50 million, equipped with AESA radar and PL-15 missiles, and is a semi-stealth fighter, outperforming the F-16V in performance while being more cost-effective. Egypt became familiar with the J-10C at the 2024 Egypt Air Show, making it a more realistic cooperation target.

It can be said that this exercise provided Egypt with an opportunity to evaluate China's tactics, command systems, and equipment, while also serving as a testing ground for China to deploy troops in strategic areas like the Red Sea. The appearance of the Y-20 and J-10C strengthened China's global influence, while the absence of the J-20 shifted the focus of "observation capabilities" to training methods, rapid deployment, or comprehensive combat capabilities.

Foreign media claims that Morocco's interest in the F-35 has stimulated Egypt's pursuit of similar capabilities, making the challenge of buying the J-20 quite high. The main obstacles are several aspects: firstly, financial pressure, the procurement cost of the J-20 is much higher than that of the J-10CE, and operational costs will only be higher; secondly, the export of the J-20 would directly disrupt the local military balance, directly impacting China's relations with Israel and the U.S., with very serious consequences; thirdly, there is a risk of information leakage regarding the export of the J-20; fourthly, China may not even plan to sell the J-20, promoting only the medium-sized fighter J-35 in the international market.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511891867366113792/

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