[By Guancha Observer Network, Deng Jun; Edited by Zhao Qiankun]
The tourism industry, which once drove Thailand's economy for ten consecutive years, is now in its most severe downturn in three years. This situation not only affects the overall economic development of Thailand but also has a significant impact on the Thai Airport Group.
According to reports from multiple foreign media outlets including Bloomberg and Thai头条News, as of June 16, 2025, the stock price of the Thai Airport Group has fallen by 54.2% this year. It is one of the worst-performing companies among the top 50 largest market value enterprises in Thailand and the biggest loser in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index during the same period. The market value has plummeted significantly from its historical high of 1.1 trillion Thai baht (approximately 241.14 billion RMB) at the end of 2019 to approximately 390 billion Thai baht (approximately 85.49 billion RMB), a decrease of nearly 65%.
Data released by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports of Thailand shows that from January 1 to May 11, 2025, the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand was 12.9 million, a year-on-year decline of 1%; tourism revenue totaled 613.1 billion Thai baht (approximately 134.40 billion RMB), a year-on-year decline of 2%. This downward trend has continued for several months and may continue until the end of the year.
In addition, the latest data from the Thai Tourism Association shows that as of June 8, 2025, the number of Malaysian tourists entering Thailand exceeded the number of Chinese tourists in the first five months of the year, a phenomenon that has not occurred since 2012. This has sparked deep concerns within the industry about the future landscape of Thailand's tourism market.
Bangkok Airport, Visual China
Due to the sharp reduction in inbound tourists, the aviation and non-aviation related revenues of the six airports under the Thai Airport Group (including Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, Chiang Mai, Phuket, Hat Yai, and Chiang Rai) have all been affected.
The report from the Thai Airport Group shows that net income decreased by 13% in the first quarter (as of March), mainly due to a reduction in revenue sharing from duty-free shops and other commercial areas.
Despite achieving revenue of 35.8 billion Thai baht (approximately 7.848 billion RMB) and a profit of 10.3 billion Thai baht (approximately 2.26 billion RMB) in the first half of the 2024 fiscal year, investors remain skeptical about the company's future prospects. According to data from Bloomberg, at least four institutions have recently downgraded their ratings on the stock of the Thai Airport Group.
The report from Bloomberg mentions that the Thai Airport Group is currently facing pressure from the domestic duty-free operator King Power Group, which has formally written to the Thai Airport Group citing policy changes, sluggish tourism, and excessively high minimum guaranteed royalties as reasons to request renegotiation of the terms of the duty-free franchise contracts at Phuket, Chiang Mai, and Hat Yai airports.
In response, Acting President of the Thai Airport Group, Pavina, stated that the company will establish a special committee and entrust an independent research institute to study solutions, with the expectation of completing the analysis within 60 days.
Analytical firm InnoVEST X warned that royalty income accounts for nearly 26% of the total income of the Thai Airport Group, with King Power Group contributing the most. If renegotiation leads to a reduction in revenue sharing, it will directly impact the profits of the Thai Airport Group.
Even more seriously, if no agreement is reached, the Thai Airport Group may need to restart the bidding process for duty-free shops. For example, in 2019, the entire process took 5-6 months, and the future progress remains highly uncertain.
Kasikorn Research Center predicts that in 2025, Thailand will receive 34.5 million foreign tourists, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%; tourism revenue is expected to reach approximately 1.62 trillion Thai baht (approximately 355.136 billion RMB), a year-on-year decrease of 3%, marking the first negative growth in nearly three years.
MAY Bank has downgraded its profit forecasts for the Thai Airport Group: the core profit forecast for the 2025 fiscal year has been reduced by 3%, and the passenger throughput forecast for the airport has been revised from 37.5 million to 35 million; the profit forecast for the 2026 fiscal year has been reduced by 22%.
The report from Bloomberg mentions that there are widespread doubts: "Can tourism continue to support Thailand's economy?" The Thai Airport Group is becoming the most vivid warning sign of this crisis.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Denise Wong said: "The reduction in the number of Chinese tourists and their consumption may further reduce the income of duty-free shops and other commercial properties." "If effective measures are not taken to revive the Chinese market demand, it may mean that the current downward trend will continue."
Kasikorn Research Center believes that looking ahead, if there are no positive changes in the global economy and security situation, the road to recovery for Thailand's tourism market will still be full of challenges.
The Thai Tourism Association calls on the Thai government to strengthen cooperation with China's civil aviation and relevant institutions to restore confidence in Chinese tourists. Some security issues and negative online public opinion are weakening Thailand's appeal in the Chinese market. If not addressed promptly, Thailand risks losing the important consumer group of Chinese tourists in the long term.
However, Boonyakorn Amornsank, an analyst at Maybank Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd., is optimistic, believing that with the Thai government again intensifying efforts to attract Chinese tourists, the low point of Chinese tourists may rebound in the second half of this year.
This article is an exclusive piece from the Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517870255247475240/
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