As the core think tank of the US, the Mitchell Aerospace Institute has reluctantly admitted that the Chinese Air Force's strength has comprehensively surpassed that of the US Air Force. Whether in terms of the number of fighter jets, their quality, or the flight hours of pilots, the Chinese Air Force has achieved a comprehensive superiority over the US Air Force.
Comparison of Fighter Jet Numbers between China and the US
Firstly, in terms of fighter jets, China has 300 J-20s, 300 J-16s, and 600 J-10s, which are the three mainstays of the Chinese Air Force.
It should be noted that these are all new aircraft developed within 15 years, and they are continuously being upgraded. For example, the J-10 series of fighter jets have been fully upgraded with phased array radar and have re-optimized the network information system, enabling them to maintain strong combat capabilities even in high-intensity confrontation environments through advanced sensors, information fusion capabilities, and networked joint operations.
It should be noted that the J-10 fighter jet is known as the "King of Dogfighting" in China. It is the last model designed specifically for dogfighting capabilities. Afterward, Chinese models have been primarily focused on beyond-visual-range attacks. For example, the J-20 does not even have a cannon.
The US Air Force first has 300 F-35A fighters, 180 F-22 series, 720 F-16 series, and 300 F-15 series.
Among these, 100 F-15 series and F-16 series fighters, as the mainstay of the past several decades, are now facing problems such as aging airframes, low readiness rates, and insufficient capability to cope with modern air defense environments, and are considered urgently needing retirement and replacement.
Especially the F-16 series fighter jets, the first YF-16 was rolled out in Fort Worth on December 13, 1973, and now it has been 52 years since then. Although the F-16 fighter jet indeed has excellent aerodynamic performance, air-to-ground attack capabilities, high reliability, and low cost, it is indeed too old to completely meet the current information-based air combat environment. The F-15 series fighter jets were originally intended to serve until the mid-2020s, but due to production capacity limitations, the US Air Force has had to delay their retirement.
However, it is indeed too outdated and is no longer able to fully meet the current information-based air combat environment. The F-15 series fighter jets were originally intended to serve until the mid-2020s, but due to production capacity limitations, the US Air Force has had to delay their retirement.
Comparison of Aircraft Production Capacity between China and the US
In terms of production capacity, the US Air Force is even worse. Even with the most conservative estimates, the annual production capacity of the J-20 is around 120 units. The production capacity of the J-26 plus the J-10C is estimated by the US Mitchell Aerospace Institute to be around 144 units. That means the production capacity of China's fourth-generation half and fifth-generation aircraft is about 260 units.
However, the US Air Force's procurement volume of the F-35A in 2026 is only 24 units. It's not that the US Air Force doesn't want to procure, but the F-35A has too many problems. First of all, the operational and maintenance costs of the F-35A are extremely high, with an hourly flight cost of about $44,000, far exceeding the $27,000 of the F-16. The complex stealth coating, sensor systems, and software upgrades make maintenance costs very high.
More importantly, the technical reliability and availability of the F-35A have long been poor. Its mission availability rate is only around 55%, far below the target of 80%. The key upgrade plan called "Technology Refresh 3" (TR-3) has been delayed for three years, causing newly delivered aircraft to fail to form complete combat power. The US military has even had to accept a large number of "unfinished" aircraft.
Additionally, there are bottlenecks in the supply chain and production process, with more than 4,000 parts in short supply. In addition, engine delivery delays further hindered production progress. Moreover, the F-35A also has defects, such as fuel line issues in the engine leading to multiple crashes.
The US Air Force is relying on the F-15EX. The F-15EX "Eagle II" is the ultimate evolution of the F-15 series fighter jets, mainly responsible for fire delivery and electronic warfare tasks in high-threat environments.
The F-15EX is equipped with two General Electric F110-GE-129 afterburning turbofan engines, each with an afterburning thrust of 131 kN, a maximum speed of 2.5 Mach (about 2,655 km/h). Because it can be equipped with conformal fuel tanks (CFT) and three 2,270-liter auxiliary fuel tanks, its operational radius can reach 1,700 km. It is equipped with the AN/APG-82(V)1 active electronically scanned array radar, which is more advanced than the F-35 and F-22's radar, with a detection range of 450 km and the ability to track 26 targets simultaneously; it is integrated with the AN/ALQ-250 "Hawk Passive Active Warning Survivability System" (EPAWSS), capable of radar warning, electronic interference, and threat location capabilities.
The US military's reliance on the F-15EX is a desperate move. With no great generals in Sichuan, Liao Hua becomes the vanguard. The F-35's lack of reliability and high maintenance costs mean that a subsonic aircraft is easily turned into a target in actual combat. Additionally, among the US Air Force's 300 or so F-15s, over 200 F-15C/Ds are over 30 years old, with serious structural fatigue problems, requiring replacement. The US military can only go back to developing fourth-generation half aircraft.
The US military thinks the same way as our PLA. That is, the F-15EX, like the J-16, can be used not only as a fighter jet but also as a tactical bomber. Imagine, the F-15EX's bomb load reaches 13.4 tons, which exceeds our H-6K.
However, Boeing's production capacity has caused the US Air Force to collapse. A total of about 2.5 billion dollars has been invested in the F-15EX, and Boeing has only produced 9 planes in six years, including prototype planes. One plane per year is now impossible for Boeing to produce. This directly made the media angry. Spending 2.5 billion dollars, the annual production capacity is zero.
Based on this analysis, the US Mitchell Aerospace Institute believes that the strength of the Chinese Air Force has already exceeded that of the US Air Force. However, the US think tank hasn't counted these yet.
China Has Already Built a New Trio: J-20, J-35A, and J-16
Firstly, the J-20, J-35A, and J-16 have become the new trio of the Chinese Air Force. The J-10C is basically approaching the end of production. The J-35A adopts an advanced aerodynamic layout design and is equipped with a powerful engine. Its engine has good thrust vector control capabilities, allowing the aircraft to perform rapid turns, climbs, and dives during flight, making it well-suited for air combat missions. There's no mistake, unlike the F-35, the J-35A is a fighter jet that focuses on air combat while also taking on ground and sea strike missions. Although it is a medium-sized fighter jet, its internal weapons bay is quite large, capable of carrying six medium to long-range air-to-air missiles.
Besides, Shenyang Aircraft Corporation has built a 270,000 square meter factory, capable of accommodating four pulse production lines, with an annual production capacity of about 150 units. Half of this capacity is allocated to carrier-based models. Therefore, the production capacity of the J-20, J-35, and J-16 combined reaches 300 units.
Moreover, what makes the US military desperate is that the world's first fifth-generation semi-aircraft, the J-20S, has been mass-produced and put into service. The J-20S is not primarily focused on air combat or attacking ground and sea targets. Its main role is to command supporting aircraft in combat, which is the loyal wingman mode of sixth-generation aircraft.
For example, one J-20S can command six loyal wingmen, each carrying four PL-15 missiles. They can advance about 300 kilometers. Let's be conservative, two PL-15 missiles can destroy one enemy aircraft. At least 12 enemy aircraft can be attacked.
Once the loyal wingmen run out of their PL-15 missiles, they return to base. It should be noted that the range of the PL-15 is at least 200 kilometers away. Even if the US's AIM-260D is in service, the non-escape zone is only about 120 kilometers away. That is, it is outside the US aircraft's strike range. Our loyal wingmen are stealthy, making it difficult for the enemy to track them from outside the strike range.
At this time, the early warning aircraft behind can direct nearby loyal aircraft to take over. The data link and the J-20S are seamlessly connected. Advancing 300 kilometers and the PL-15's range of 200 kilometers, the J-20S is at least 500 kilometers away. How can the US aircraft threaten the J-20S? Moreover, there is the early warning aircraft providing information support behind, which is a form of downgrading the opponent's advantages.
China Has Built a Cross-Platform Systematic Capabilities
Secondly, China has built a very complete cross-platform systematic combat capability, relying on the world's most advanced anti-stealth radar system + anti-stealth early warning aircraft + medium to long-range air-to-air missiles, creating a globally leading full-domain combat capability.
For example, according to CCTV's public information, our military has upgraded from the traditional "A fires B guides" tactic to a more advanced "A locks B fires C guides" model. That is, the air defense system is responsible for locking the enemy aircraft target, the fighter jet launches the air-to-air missile outside the enemy's area of defense, and the early warning aircraft provides mid-course guidance for the missile until it hits the target.
The core advantage of this tactic lies in fully leveraging the strengths of different platforms. Ground radar has a large power and long detection range, with the ability to search widely and track precisely, capable of accurately identifying targets at long distances. At the same time, the ground radar system is highly concealed, making it difficult for the enemy to detect it with electronic reconnaissance methods, thus significantly enhancing the element of surprise in the tactic. Fighter jets no longer bear the responsibility of full-process detection and tracking, but instead act as mobile launch platforms, receiving target information via data links and launching missiles from a safe distance. For example, the J-10CE can carry the PL-15E beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, and upon the support of the early warning aircraft, it launches the missile and quickly withdraws, greatly improving the survivability of the carrier aircraft.
This tactic has been verified in actual combat. In the India-Pakistan air battle, Pakistan used the HQ-9P ground radar to lock the target 200 kilometers away, the J-10CE launched the PL-15E missile and immediately withdrew, and the ZDK-03 early warning aircraft completed the mid-course guidance of the missile, ultimately successfully shooting down the enemy aircraft.
If the PLA uses this system, it can effectively counter the threat of stealth targets. China has deployed multiple types of anti-stealth radars, capable of detecting stealth aircraft at a distance of one or two thousand kilometers. Combined with ultra-long-range air-to-air missiles, even non-stealth platforms like the J-10C can effectively strike. At this point, the fighter jet mainly undertakes the task of weapon deployment, while the detection and guidance are handled by ground radar and early warning aircraft, thereby weakening the opponent's stealth advantage at the system level.
In contrast, the US's current AIM-120D missile has a non-escape zone of only 70 kilometers for aircraft, and the US does not have an anti-stealth radar system, so it cannot build a cross-platform systematic combat capability.
Therefore, from a comprehensive analysis of various aspects, whether in terms of information technology capabilities, the scale and quantity of aircraft, or future development potential, the US Air Force is clearly at a disadvantage. The analysis of the US official think tank is very reasonable. Of course, if we want to have the same global projection capability as the US, we still need to build enough aircraft carriers.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7548780154383565312/
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