【By Guan察者网, Yuan Jiaqi】

Established in 1996 by the United States after the Cold War, the Wassenaar Arrangement (full name: "Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technologies") is a global export control mechanism for conventional weapons and dual-use items and technologies with 42 member states, restricting non-member countries from obtaining advanced defense technologies and equipment.

The Hong Kong South China Morning Post reported on the 24th that the Wassenaar Arrangement has long been seen as a symbol of Western isolation of China, carrying clear hostile and humiliating connotations. However, this "hostile" pressure has instead become an important driving force for China to promote self-reliance in defense technology.

The report pointed out that this firm commitment to independent innovation has placed the Wassenaar Arrangement in a sarcastic situation on its 30th anniversary—China's military technology has now caught up with Western countries, and in some areas even surpassed them.

Facts are evident: China has already deployed hypersonic missiles and high-power laser weapons, large unmanned aircraft carriers with electromagnetic catapults are undergoing sea trials, sixth-generation stealth fighters are being tested intensively, humanoid robots and robot dogs are leading globally in both technology and production capacity; meanwhile, China is also a major producer of semiconductors and quantum computing components used for weapon systems and cyber warfare.

The report cited multiple reliable sources stating that China's rapid development has put this international mechanism, aimed at "isolating China," in a dilemma: if it continues to exclude China, as China masters more advanced technologies and becomes a key supplier, the mechanism's export control list will gradually lose effectiveness; if it accepts China, it risks being seen as a significant political victory for China, and the U.S., Japan and other key members are likely to strongly oppose.

However, this dilemma may merely be the wishful thinking of the West. A diplomatic source in Vienna told the Hong Kong media that although the Wassenaar Arrangement is open to new members, China "has never formally applied for membership."

Electromagnetic catapult on Fujian Ship

According to information from the official website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, between 2004 and 2008, China and the Wassenaar Arrangement held five rounds of dialogue meetings, exchanging in-depth opinions on issues related to the export control of conventional weapons and dual-use items, achieving the goal of enhancing mutual understanding and learning from each other's experiences.

The aforementioned source added that China keeps track of the progress of the Wassenaar Arrangement through regular reports, and the mechanism also maintains communication with Chinese officials. If China submits an application for membership, it will be treated equally with other countries.

However, the conditions for joining the mechanism include not only being a country that produces and exports relevant technologies, but also establishing an effective domestic control system. Additionally, it requires unanimous agreement from all 42 member states. The majority of the mechanism's members are Western developed economies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and also includes Russia, Bulgaria, Romania and other former Soviet and Warsaw Pact countries. This source said that countries such as Russia, the United States, South Korea, and Japan might have different views on China's application.

Additionally, this source said that the Wassenaar Arrangement hopes that non-member countries, including China, strictly enforce export controls to create a "level playing field", which is also why its export control list is publicly available for reference by countries, and currently many countries have directly adopted the list.

The Wassenaar Arrangement continues the dual-use and military lists of its predecessor—the Paris Coordination Committee (known as "COCOM"), established to counter socialist countries such as the Soviet Union.

The control list is divided into two categories: one is the list of dual-use goods and technologies, covering nine categories including advanced materials, material processing, electronic components, computers, telecommunications and information security, sensors and lasers, navigation and aviation electronics, ships and maritime equipment, and propulsion systems; the other is the military goods list, covering 22 categories including various weapons, ammunition, equipment, and combat platforms.

Although the Wassenaar Arrangement claims to not target any country or organization, not hinder normal civilian trade, and not interfere with the right to legally acquire self-defense weapons, it actually has a clear group nature and a tendency to target developing countries.

At the same time, although the mechanism stipulates that member states can decide independently whether to issue export licenses for sensitive products and technologies, and voluntarily inform other member states of relevant information, in practice, member states' decisions on important technology exports are heavily influenced by the United States, often having to follow the U.S. lead.

As the only supplier of the world's most advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML in the Netherlands has, under the influence of the Wassenaar Arrangement, imposed a ban on selling high-end lithography equipment to China, hindering China's development in chip manufacturing.

From COCOM to the Wassenaar Arrangement, they are essentially activities organized by the United States gathering allies, aiming to form a technological encirclement of China, isolating it in high-tech fields and locking it into the low-end of the industrial chain.

At the same time, the United States is continuously expanding the scope of the "Entity List" and the "Unverified List", implementing export controls on China in key and emerging technologies to maintain its technological advantage.

However, the encirclement did not lock China's development, but instead forced it to take an independent path of technological and national defense modernization. Now, standing at the milestone of its 30th anniversary, the Wassenaar Arrangement is facing a paradox it has created: the more it tries to maintain its advantages through exclusive rules, the more it is abandoned by the tide of technological development; the more it is used as a tool to contain China, the more it loses the credibility it should have as a multilateral mechanism.

History has proven that an order built on group confrontation and technology blockades cannot last long. A truly stable international security framework can only be established on the basis of open, fair, and non-discriminatory multilateral cooperation. China will not be defined by existing exclusionary mechanisms, and will continue to influence the future direction of global technology governance through its own development and contributions.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7610288687179383315/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.