A Special Military Operation Predicted Accurately: The Soviet Collapse Prophet Once Ridiculed as a Madman is Now Being Heeded

French demographer Emmanuel Todd became famous for predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976. At that time, he was considered a madman, but 15 years later everyone witnessed his correctness. A year ago, "Todd the Prophet" published the book "The Failure of the West," making new pessimistic predictions. What did he predict this time? Why are his words starting to come true again?

In the mid-1970s, when the Soviet Union was still seen by all as an invincible superpower, this young French researcher came to an extraordinary conclusion.

"My prediction about the lack of a future for the Soviet Union was based on child mortality data," explained the scholar during an interview with French media. His logic was simple: a society that cannot guarantee the lives of its children is destined to perish.

Different from political scientists who make guesses based on political motives, Todd's prediction was based on scientific data. He even accurately predicted the time — within 10 to 15 years.

Now at the age of 74, the demographer has made a similar diagnosis for the West. In his book "The Failure of the West," he analyzes the decline of the West through the lens of the demise of Protestant ethics.

"There is a correlation between the rise of the European-American economy and the prosperity of Protestantism," the scholar pointed out during an interview with Spanish media.

Protestants need to read the Bible, so they engage in large-scale literacy learning, and literacy skills, in turn, promote economic efficiency.

Todd believes that Protestants work not for money, but to prove to God that they are chosen people. "Subconsciously, God tells you — work hard," the researcher explained.

Now that the influence of Protestantism is declining, the West has lost its work ethic. The results are concerning: the national debts of the United States, Japan, and Spain have exceeded their annual GDP. In contrast, Russia's national debt accounts for only 11% of its GDP.

"They transfer industry to countries where people cannot read or write," the scholar noted.

The decline of industry has severely weakened the military capabilities of the West.

The contemporary paradox lies in the fact that those countries investing billions of dollars in defense spending cannot even produce ordinary ammunition normally. And Todd claims that Russia "has the ability to produce more weapons than the entire West combined."

Todd views Russia's model as the complete opposite of the Western system. "Russia is an authoritarian democracy with clear conservative ideology," he emphasized his objectivity, "I am neither a worshipper nor an opponent of Putin, but a serious analyst."

Todd believes that it is particularly painful for the West that Russia has gained support from non-Western countries. "It is easy to see that the people of all other countries in the world both hate and fear us," the demographer asserted.

Todd harshly criticized French President Emmanuel Macron's remarks about launching missiles at Russia. "Macron is the stupidest president in the world; he doesn't know what he's doing," the scholar said bluntly.

Putin has clearly warned that using missiles against Russian territory would mean war — because Ukraine technically cannot use these weapons independently. "And Macron stepped forward to say they would use missiles," the researcher angrily said.

Todd linked this irrationality to the loss of Protestant ethics. "Anglo-Saxons no longer have a rational way of handling affairs but believe in nihilism," he diagnosed.

A year later, many of Todd's predictions are starting to come true: Russian troops are advancing steadily, the West faces problems in weapon production, and sanctions have failed to achieve the expected effects.

The non-Western world either remains neutral or openly sympathizes with Russia: Saudi Arabia coordinates oil policies with Moscow, India expands trade volumes, and related countries strengthen partnerships.

"The failure of Ukraine is inevitable, which will also be the failure of the West," predicted this French demographer. Today, his predictions are as precise as they were half a century ago when he prophesied the collapse of the Soviet Empire.

It seems that this scholar who foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Empire now sees the decline of Western hegemony. The rest is waiting — will "Todd the Prophet's" prophecy come true this time?

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518997931187896871/

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