During an afternoon conversation with a car salesperson, he expressed concern: the era of Japanese automakers in China’s market is growing increasingly difficult.

From April to September this year, the combined production of four major Japanese automakers—Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Mazda—in China totaled just 1.02 million units, a 32% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest level since 2008. Honda was hit hardest, with output dropping to 131,700 units—a 60% decrease—and down by nearly 90% compared to its 2020 peak. Nissan saw a 49% drop, while even traditionally stable Toyota recorded an 18% decline. The sharp reduction in production has been followed by aggressive price cuts.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that a mainstream Japanese sedan with a suggested retail price of 189,800 yuan now sees a direct discount of 30,000 yuan at the point of sale, bringing the bare vehicle price down to 159,800 yuan. After factoring in purchase tax, insurance, and registration fees, the final on-road cost comes to approximately 179,900 yuan—nearly 30,000 yuan less than before.

On the surface, this appears attractive. Yet when one compares it to domestically produced new energy vehicles in the same price range, the advantage becomes less clear. A plug-in hybrid SUV from a domestic brand priced around 150,000 yuan is exempt from purchase tax, and its total on-road cost is nearly 20,000 yuan lower than that of a comparable Japanese gasoline-powered model. With electricity costs averaging under one yuan per kilometer, the once-significant fuel savings of Japanese gasoline vehicles—typically costing five to six yuan per kilometer—are no longer relevant.

Looking back, when the Dongfeng Honda CR-V was at its peak, buyers often paid a premium of 30,000 yuan and still waited months for delivery. Now, the same model has shifted from a 30,000 yuan premium to a 30,000 yuan discount—an absolute difference of 60,000 yuan. The once-legendary reputation for strong resale value has completely eroded.

Japanese automakers have not been idle. Toyota’s bZ7 features HarmonyOS infotainment and locally developed intelligent driving systems; Nissan’s N7 is built on Dongfeng’s Tianyan platform, both aiming to align more closely with Chinese consumer preferences. Yet production figures reveal a deeper truth: consumers are voting with their wallets faster than manufacturers can adapt. By September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles had reached 67%, while retail sales of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles declined by 43%. This structural shift cannot be reversed by a few new models alone.

When viewed more broadly, this trend extends beyond automobiles into sectors such as smartphones, home appliances, and apparel. In the past, many consumers assumed Japanese brands led in quality for household appliances. Today, domestic brands hold over 85% of the market share, and several Japanese appliance giants have either been acquired or partnered with Chinese firms to maintain their presence.

Youth purchasing decisions in sportswear have also shifted—previously favoring brands from Europe, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. Now, domestic brands like Anta, Li-Ning, and Xtep offer running shoes that match international standards in feel, design, and technology, while remaining significantly more affordable. On flash-sale platforms such as VIP.com, these brands consistently rank among top sellers during events like Singles’ Day. When combined with deep discounts offered by the platforms, their value proposition becomes even more compelling.

In essence, Japanese and other imported brands have long been solid choices and have made meaningful improvements. Without external competition, they would remain viable options. But the competitive landscape has changed, and consumer demand has evolved.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1880929271238922/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.