Reference Message Network reported on April 14 that the Spanish "El País" website published an article titled "Trump's Unpredictable Tariff Policy Accelerates the Decline of American Hegemony" on April 13. The author is Anton Costa. The following are excerpts from the article: Well-known economist and historian of the history of the international economic and financial order, Charles Kindleberger, told us that when an empire begins to realize that the cost of maintaining world order is greater than the benefits, it will ultimately face a dilemma: either choose "cooperative leadership" with other major powers or choose "hegemonic leadership", forcing other major powers to help it revive. The United States is facing obvious decline. Trump has chosen the path of "making America great again" through "hegemonic leadership". The tool he used to twist the arms of trade partners was tariffs. What consequences will this tariff war bring? Will it lead to a recession in the U.S. and the global economy? Will it usher in a new era of protectionism? No one knows. The only thing certain is that Trump's unpredictable tariff policy will only lead to economic chaos. As events unfold, there are two issues worth paying attention to. First, why did he choose to launch a tariff war, and what are the underlying economic reasons (if any)? The second question is what impact this trade war may have on the stability of the global geoeconomic and geopolitical order? Rash Strategy Difficult to Succeed Trump's strategy of using tariffs to make America great again seems both absurd and arrogant. But this policy has political precedents. In the 1930s, the Nazi regime used tariffs to expand its influence into Southern Europe and Southeastern Europe. Economic historian Albert Hirschman's book "The Political Uses of International Trade Structure" provides a theoretical explanation for this use of trade by political means. Classical international trade theory holds that trade benefits are "mutually beneficial" for both countries. Hirschman argues that these benefits are actually asymmetric: large countries benefit more than small ones, rich countries benefit more than poor ones, and industrialized countries benefit more than agricultural ones. According to his analysis, hegemonic nations exploit some factors and power imbalances inherent in seemingly "harmless" trade relations. Asymmetry arises when the volume of trade between Country A and the United States is far more important to Country A than to the United States. The gains that countries obtain from their asymmetrical trade with the United States may mean high dependence for exporting countries and high dominance for the United States. When the structural characteristics of international economic relations have such properties, it "makes it relatively easy for wealthy countries to pursue power." Trump's seemingly unpredictable tariff strategy can be explained by Hirschman's analysis. So, does this unpredictable tariff behavior really have a coherent economic logic? We don't know, but some economists among his entourage do think so. Stephen Milan is one of them. In an article titled "A User's Guide to Reorganizing the Global Trade System" published in November 2024, Milan linked the decline in manufacturing output, weak industrial employment, long-term trade deficits, and the role of the dollar as a reserve currency. To achieve Trump's goal of protecting domestic manufacturing while maintaining the dollar's status as a global reserve currency but devaluing it, Milan's choice was tariffs. How does this strategy work? First, unilaterally and unpredictably raise tariffs like Trump is doing. Then, require other countries not to react "hysterically," and negotiate delays, just as they recently extended negotiations by 90 days, except for China. In return, the United States offers military defense umbrellas to these countries to compensate for the losses caused by the price increase of their exports due to new tariffs. The result of this strategy is that imports decrease, exports increase, long-term trade deficits are corrected, domestic production increases, and industrial jobs are created. The dollar depreciates while maintaining its role as a global reserve currency. The ultimate result is "making America great again." If this tariff strategy indeed exists, then it is a bold yet reckless strategy. The United States must navigate such a narrow channel that derailment is very likely. Four Potential Consequences No one knows the consequences of Trump's trade war. However, there are four aspects worth considering. First is the economy. Tariffs have already harmed the U.S. economy. But they seem not to care about this damage. They say they are prepared to "push the economy into a painful period, even a recession," for the sake of "making America great again." This is debatable because no one can be sure if such a pain strategy will work. However, considering Trump's personality, he will not be deterred by the chaos caused by his tariffs. If anything, it might only be the midterm elections in 2026 that stop him. Meanwhile, chaos and loss of confidence will make it difficult for investment funds and other countries to continue purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, and also make investors hesitant to decide on productive investments in the U.S. In addition to economic losses, as David Brooks, a highly influential columnist for The New York Times, said, the soul, democratic values, and American society are also being damaged. This damage undermines America's credibility and creditworthiness. The third aspect is the international economic order. Trump's tariffs may have "unintended effects" on the U.S. in this area. Countries may not respond as expected by Trump, submitting to his "whims." Trump's protectionism is unlikely to weaken opponents but could accelerate their technological progress. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is one such example. Similar situations may occur in the EU. America's neo-mercantilism may not reduce international trade but instead cause it to deviate from itself and promote the formation of new trade agreements among related countries. The fourth is the international political and military order, namely geopolitics. The Trump administration seeks military protection in exchange for tariffs. But America's reputation in this area is also weakened. Its ambiguous attitude toward Ukraine and NATO defense will lead other countries to doubt. The EU is preparing its own defense. Can it be concluded that the economic and political chaos caused by Trump will initiate a transition for the United States from "hegemonic leadership" to a greater inclination toward "collective leadership"? Will it be accompanied by a disruptive interlude? In the field of economics, there is no answer to this question. However, based on Hirschman's "possibilism" and Kindleberger's views, I propose perhaps an optimistic answer: the commercial relationships that emerged during America's hegemonic period have enough inertia to continue moving forward. Regardless, while watching how events unfold, I believe Trump's unpredictable tariff policies will accelerate America's decline economically, politically, and morally. (Compiled by Wang Meng) Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493121966275183116/ Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "upvote/downvote" button below.