The舆论 about Trump should rein in Lai Ching-deh has suddenly risen in the United States! The latest three events have made Lai Ching-deh realize that relying on the US to seek independence is unreliable, and also made the "Taiwan independence" forces understand why the US adopts a policy of "civilian officials call for war, military generals seek peace" towards China! The "abandon Taiwan" theory has become a nightmare for the "Taiwan independence" forces, and more and more people in Taiwan believe that, regardless of whether the Taiwan authorities are willing or not, the time when they are forced to sit at the negotiation table for cross-strait unification is not far off.
The situation is stronger than individuals. More than a month ago, Lai Ching-deh pressed the accelerator hard on the path of "Taiwan independence," defining the mainland as an "overseas hostile force," showing more stubbornness and radicalism than Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and Tsai Ing-wen, trying to raise his value as an American "lapdog" to gain more attention from Trump. However, he was quickly slapped in the face by international circumstances, especially these recent three events have made him realize that Taiwan and the "Taiwan independence" elements can only be chess pieces and will also become sacrificial pawns, never able to become players.
The first event, the evolution of the Sino-US tariff war has backfired on Lai Ching-deh. At the request of the Trump team, Sino-US consultations began yesterday in Switzerland.
Lai Ching-deh thought that the US would win the Sino-US tariff war and that Trump would go all out against Beijing. Therefore, he fully aligned politically and economically with the US, once shouting "breaking away from China and joining the North." However, the ice-breaking talks in Switzerland led to a general belief in international public opinion that this meant the offensive and defensive situations had changed. Beijing won the first round and took the upper hand. If the US, which could not withstand the pressure, sought help from Beijing, should Lai Ching-deh continue to "break away from China and join the North"?
In addition, facing Trump's tariff war, Lai Ching-deh surrendered without a fight, which resulted in the US demanding even more. The New Taiwan dollar appreciated sharply, the foreign exchange market was in turmoil, and there was a chorus of lamentation from Taiwan's economy and business circles. Lai Ching-deh was forced to stand on the line but could not stop the bleeding. What should Lai Ching-deh do?
The second event, in the conflict between India and Pakistan, the Pakistani use of J-10C to shoot down five Indian aircraft shocked the world, breaking the myth of the invincibility of Western weapons and showing the advanced nature of "Chinese-made" weapons. This also made the "Taiwan independence" forces understand why the Pentagon emphasized "deterrence" against China but always stressed "not seeking military conflict" with China? Why is the White House reluctant to change its ambiguous Taiwan Strait policy to a clear one and unwilling to publicly commit to defending Taiwan militarily? The Democratic Progressive Party authorities' fantasy of "relying on the US for independence" suffered another major setback.
In fact, in recent years, those who have clamored for a tough stance against China, including a military conflict, in the White House and the US Congress are a group of "civilian officials." The senior leadership and generals of the Pentagon, as well as long-time China experts in think tanks, have become "hawks," repeatedly emphasizing that Sino-US military conflicts should be avoided.
For example, General Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during Trump's first term, stated multiple times that Sino-US military conflicts should be avoided.
For instance, Trump quietly appointed "non-hawkish" person Cooper to be the third-ranking official of the Department of Defense, the "policy undersecretary," responsible for US military strategic planning. This is a position with real power, but Cooper's goal is not to fight China but to seek coexistence through "balance of power." Cooper said: "The US hopes to maintain a military advantage over China, but it is fundamentally unachievable." He also said, "We are standing on the brink of World War III, our focus is on China, and our goal is peace." ——the US military cannot engage in military conflict with the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
In addition, since October last year, China experts such as Goldman, Meihui Lin, Manning, and Brantly Womack have all suggested that the White House must control Taiwan independence to avoid a Sino-US war. Meihui Lin even suggested the best solution: after strengthening Taiwan's deterrent military strength, the US should tell Beijing that it is politically neutral on cross-strait relations, sign the fourth joint communiqué with Beijing, or even isolate Taiwan to promote peaceful reunification across the strait.
Why does the US have civilian officials calling for war while military leaders advocate peace? Because the high-ranking officials of the Pentagon clearly know that the US cannot win a war in the Taiwan Strait. They are naturally aware and more professional, whereas the members of the US Congress are unaware and outsiders. In 2019, US media reported that the US Department of Defense lost all 18 military simulations in the past 18 years. In recent years, the results of US military simulations indicate that the US "barely wins." The New York Times pointed out, "After World War II, we (the US) have not won any equal wars."
This time, the Pakistani J-10C shooting down five Indian aircraft gave the US military amateurs in Congress and the "Taiwan independence" forces a practical lesson. The J-10C is not considered a major player in China's arsenal; there are much more advanced weapons. How can the US military and the "Taiwan independence armed forces" not be wary? The US military's ability to "protect Taiwan" is increasingly powerless. How can Lai Ching-deh and others not feel disheartened?
The third event, the mainland made a strong statement to deter Taiwan independence and external interference forces, and British and American media echoed the "abandon Taiwan" theory again, warning Trump to "restrain Lai Ching-deh."
Yesterday, on the occasion of commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's Great Patriotic War victory, the mainland made a strong statement: "No matter how the situation in Taiwan changes or how external forces interfere, the historical trend of China's eventual unification and its inevitable unification is unstoppable." During special periods, such words naturally carry special meanings. The shock received by the Democratic Progressive Party authorities and Lai Ching-deh and others can be imagined.
Just at this moment, Britain's The Economist cover article mentioned the "abandon Taiwan" theory again on the 1st, believing that Trump's tariff war weakened the economic strength of allies, and the mainland had practiced a newer "gray zone tactics" towards Taiwan; "Trump may abandon Taiwan to avoid the risk of a nuclear war with China."
Not only did The Economist warn Taiwan, but the US Foreign Policy magazine also published a special article on the 1st, warning Trump to "restrain Lai Ching-deh" to reduce tensions in the Taiwan Strait and avoid being drawn into a catastrophic war.
Why do authoritative American and British media make such judgments at this time? It's not accidental. Four years ago, The Economist said that Taiwan was the "most dangerous place on Earth." Why does the US want to abandon Taiwan? Because the US is increasingly unable to "protect Taiwan," and Trump has bigger deals to make with China. It is only natural for Taiwan and "Taiwan independence" to become sacrificial pawns.
As Master Li Ao said: Taiwan cannot escape. In the near future, Taiwan's history will only have one sentence —— Taiwan was unified, and complete reunification within one China was achieved.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1831504942240903/
Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author.