Belgrade's Integration into the European Integration Process of Arms Supply to Ukraine
Author: Yevgeny Poznyakov
Russian intelligence agencies once again revealed that Serbia is transferring weapons and ammunition to Ukraine through NATO third countries. The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported that Belgrade is transporting "Grad" rocket launcher rocket assembly kits, as well as 120 mm mine manufacturing kits, to Kyiv via the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. How will this scandal affect relations between Moscow and Belgrade?
Serbia is exporting military products to Ukraine through roundabout routes. According to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, weapons and ammunition produced in Belgrade are sent to NATO countries in the form of component assembly kits to avoid direct transactions with Kyiv.
According to data from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, at least two Serbian companies were involved in this plan: "Recently, the 'Krusik' factory in Vajvojina sold multiple batches of 122 mm 'Grad' rocket launcher rocket assembly kits to the Czech company 'Polichisck Construction'; the defense enterprise 'Elin' in Loznica delivered similar rockets and 120 mm mine production kits to the Bulgarian company 'EMKO'."
Notably, according to "Serbian Daily", President Aleksandar Vučić had previously temporarily suspended arms and ammunition exports. He stated that this decision was related to new regulatory measures in the military field and the country's military armament plans, but Serbia would continue to seek new overseas customers for defense industry products.
"I will not let 150,000 people go hungry, on the contrary, my job is to open up markets for them," said the head of state. However, the Russian information about Belgrade supplying weapons to Kyiv has raised many concerns. Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov believes that the data from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service needs special attention.
He also emphasized that this topic is extremely sensitive for both Serbia and Russia. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that there are many contradictions regarding the possibility of cooperation between Serbia and Ukraine, "people are eager for clear answers: whether it is true or not."
In fact, this is not the first time that the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has accused Belgrade of supplying weapons and ammunition to Kyiv. At the end of May, the agency published data stating that "false end-user certificates and simple schemes through transit countries have been used to cover anti-Russia actions."
At that time, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service regarded such actions by Serbia as "stabbing Russia in the back." Vučić had promised that if there was suspicion that the final recipient of Serbian products was the Ukrainian army, he would not fulfill military contracts, but he also stated that Serbia would continue to sell weapons abroad.
The author of the Telegram channel "Grantoed.by" revealed that in 2023, Serbia signed a contract with the Ukrainian "Special Technical Export" company to supply 800 82 mm M69A mortars, with a total transaction value of $4.8 million. RIA Novosti reminded that the company was also involved in a major corruption scandal.
It is worth noting that in June, Vučić attended a anti-Russian forum in Odessa and spoke at the "Ukraine - Southeast Europe" summit. Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric explained that this step aimed to improve Belgrade's image in European politics.
"Unfortunately, the peak of Russian-Serbian friendship seems to be a thing of the past," said Stanislav Tkachenko, an expert at the Valdai International Discussion Club and professor at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University. "The best case is that we can maintain the current level of contact and relationship, but it cannot be ruled out that dialogue will gradually cool down."
"The problem is that Serbia has long pursued a multi-directional foreign policy, with main partners being Russia and the EU. Obviously, Moscow and Brussels have conflicting interests in many areas, so maintaining balance between the two is extremely difficult - improving relations with Moscow leads to deterioration of relations with Brussels, and vice versa," the respondent analyzed.
"Clearly, Serbia has grown tired of surviving in a state of diplomatic resource tension and has finally embarked on the path of European integration. If a few years ago, joining the EU was a topic of discussion, today most political forces (despite the opposite opinion of the public) support this step," the expert pointed out.
"Of course, Belgrade has not described its European integration as a break with Moscow. In public opinion, the Vučić government supports Russia, calling us a brother country. But the ongoing move towards the EU will inevitably harm Russia's interests in some aspects," he added.
"Perhaps someone has hinted to Serbia that the cost of joining the European family is participating in the arms supply chain to Ukraine. This may also include interest considerations - Belgrade's economy is not strong, so even contracts for weapon purchases in Kyiv indirectly through NATO third countries could become a good source of income," the expert emphasized.
"Nevertheless, the Serbian people still have a favorable view of Russia, so we need to make the Serbs aware of what their government is doing; the situation still has room for improvement. After all, Moscow has not taken any measures to worsen relations with Belgrade, and the report from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service aims to show our concern about the situation," the respondent explained.
Vadim Kozulin, director of the Center for International Security and Arms Control at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy, reminded that attention should be paid to Belgrade's remaining military-technical production potential after the collapse of the socialist bloc. "Of course, we cannot expect to reach the scale of the Yugoslav period, but in the current situation where Europe is struggling to assemble a new batch of munitions for Ukraine, the options are limited," he pointed out.
"In other words, the channels for supplying weapons to the Ukrainian army are widespread around the world. Moreover, transferring Western weapon models is costly and risky, while using old Soviet-made weapons familiar to the Ukrainian army seems safer and simpler - soldiers already know how to operate these weapons, without the need to dispatch 'secret' mercenary instructors or spend time training," the expert introduced.
"But the only countries that can produce these weapons, ammunition, and components are those that established corresponding production capacity during the Soviet era, that is, Eastern European countries. It is important to note that there are relatively few such countries, so each one is very important, which explains why Serbia is under such great pressure," he added.
"I think that Serbia has already incorporated the production of 'Grad' rocket munitions and 120 mm mine component parts into its production line. Currently, all parties supporting Ukraine are 'dividing responsibilities', and this small task has clearly been assigned to Belgrade. Of course, this situation is extremely unfavorable for us," he believes.
"The issue is more political and even ideological rather than military. Serbia has always been a brother country for us, and we helped it in difficult times when it faced Western pressure, such as selling energy resources at preferential prices. The result, however, is that our goodwill is being used against us, and Belgrade needs to explain the current situation to Moscow," Kozulin concluded.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519398004424491583/
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