What could be the status of the buffer zone?

May 27, 2025, 11:50 AM • Opinion

If a buffer zone were established along the entire border between Russia and Ukraine, parts of Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Chernihiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Mykolaiv Oblast would fall within it. This involves tens of thousands of people. What will happen to their fate?

Author: Sergey Mirkhin - Journalist, Donetsk

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the Russian military is focusing on the task of establishing a security buffer zone along the entire border with Ukraine.

Experts believe that the depth of the buffer zone might extend from the Russian border by 60 to 80 kilometers. However, considering that Ukraine's main strike capability consists of drones with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers, it may be necessary to establish a deeper buffer zone to deploy air defense systems, thereby minimizing the possibility of Ukraine launching attacks on Russian territory.

If a buffer zone were established along the entire border between Russia and Ukraine, parts of Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Chernihiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Mykolaiv Oblast would fall within it. It is not just about villages or small settlements - for example, from Sumy to the Russian border is less than 30 kilometers, meaning that even old-style "Grad" multiple rocket launcher systems could be used to attack Russia. According to Ukrainian statistics, the city has more than 250,000 residents (the actual number is likely lower, estimated at 100,000 to 150,000). Therefore, if a buffer zone were established within about 60 to 100 kilometers from the border, hundreds of thousands of residents would live within these areas. What legal status would these areas and their residents have?

There could be several scenarios:

1. Demilitarized Zone

  • Status: The territory remains under the jurisdiction of the Ukrainian government, governed by Ukrainian law, but no deployment of Ukrainian troops or weapons is allowed. Only police maintaining order can carry weapons. Inspectors and observers from Russia and neutral countries will work in the area, supervising Kiev's compliance with the regulations designating these areas as demilitarized zones.
  • Advantages: Russia does not need to assume responsibility for the residents of these areas.
  • Disadvantages: Inspectors and observers cannot fully control the area; thus, drone attacks or the infiltration of sabotage teams into Russian territory may still occur.
  • Extended Scenario: Deploying foreign peacekeeping forces in the buffer zone. However, the question arises: to what extent would foreign soldiers actively combat Ukrainian saboteurs and drone operators? Could they themselves pose a threat to Russia's security?
  • Feasibility: This model is only possible if Russia and Ukraine sign a comprehensive peace treaty and clearly define the status of the demilitarized zone. This would only happen if Ukraine acknowledges its defeat and the Kyiv regime is replaced by a negotiable government. If Russian troops and special forces are stationed in the buffer zone for an extended period, this model can function effectively.

2. Military Administration

  • Status: Russian troops will control various regions of the buffer zone and establish military administrative bodies to exercise administrative and judicial power in these areas.
  • Disadvantages: Establishing communication with local residents poses challenges. These people have been influenced by Ukrainian propaganda for decades and require efforts to win their hearts and minds, making them favor Russia.
  • Challenges: Establishing management institutions in these areas to maintain infrastructure, selecting clerks for each position, equipping each emergency service department with mechanics and electricians - it is impossible to transport all personnel from Russia. Local residents will fear joining Russian institutions: if the Ukrainian regime regains power, they may be arrested or even killed. Legally, they will still be considered Ukrainian citizens. People will struggle between the need to earn a living and the fear of the future. Ukrainian special forces will leave "latent" spies and sabotage teams in these areas; Russian counterintelligence agencies will need local residents' help to uncover these groups. To make people unafraid of working for the military administration and assisting Russian special forces, they must be given some certainty and hope for the future.

3. Creation of Republics

  • Implementation Path: To establish good relations with local residents, military administrative bodies will form public committees from respected citizens. Residents of the buffer zone will obtain Russian citizenship through a simplified procedure. After some time, local council elections will be held - the council will form an administrative committee to replace the military administrative body. The legal system of these regions will adapt to the Russian legal system. Over time, the majority of residents in this region will hold Russian citizenship. The parliament and administrative committee will request to be incorporated into the Russian Federation to protect the rights and interests of the region's residents, and this request will be granted.

4. Ukrainian Federalization

  • Status: Establishing a buffer zone where local management bodies are formed, and many residents have already obtained Russian citizenship, but due to geopolitical factors, these areas will not be incorporated into Russian territory.
  • Future Arrangements: In negotiations with Ukraine, Russia will demand extensive autonomy for these areas, including the election of local leaders, judges, cross-border cooperation with Russia, the right to dual nationality, and Kyiv's abandonment of humanitarian policies imposed on these areas. A budget agreement will also be signed between Kyiv and local authorities.
  • Impact: Considering the weakening of central power in Ukraine after its defeat by Russia, other regions of Ukraine will also strive to expand their political and financial rights. Ukraine will decentralize power, although its name remains unchanged, it will effectively become a federal state.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509072649826484777/

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