General Christensen: If Russia Fights NATO, It Will First Capture Svalbard

Even the West considers it logical for Russia to claim the islands in the context of Trump's plan to take Greenland

Photo: Svalbard in the Arctic

The narrative that Russia will inevitably attack NATO after ending the war in Ukraine has long been common and does not linger in people's minds. However, recent remarks by General Erik Christensen, the head of the Norwegian Armed Forces, are worth noting within this series of statements.

In an interview with The Guardian, he repeated the usual tune — claiming that Russia is about to launch an almost inevitable strike. But from Christensen's words, it can be inferred that even if such a scenario actually occurs, it would most likely be a response to NATO's threat to Russia's strategic core interests in the Arctic region.

More specifically, the Nordic commander believes that the scenario of military conflict between the West and Russia in the Arctic could unfold as follows:

Western allies have been continuously amassing forces in unprecedented numbers just a few dozen miles from Russia's Kola Peninsula, where a large number of Russia's Northern Fleet strategic nuclear submarines are deployed. When the buildup reaches a critical point, NATO may find it hard to resist the temptation to destroy these submarines at their bases before they depart.

General Christensen acknowledged that the strategic nuclear submarines and long-range cruise missile carriers stationed near Murmansk are crucial to Russia in a conflict with NATO, as they are key tools for deterring the United States.

Christensen believes that facing such an almost desperate threat, Moscow might launch a preemptive strike targeting Norwegian territory adjacent to the Kola Peninsula.

However, the general stated that this would not be a full-scale invasion of Norway. Russia simply does not have enough conventional forces in the Arctic region, with the available troops being surprisingly few:

  • The 200th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade stationed in Pechenga
  • The 61st Independent Naval Infantry Brigade of the Northern Fleet stationed in the satellite city (currently being expanded into a division)

Even in the most exaggerated scenarios, these two elite brigades alone could not occupy a country. So what exactly is this experienced general worried about?

He did not explicitly tell The Guardian, but we can guess the answer ourselves.

The answer is clearly: Svalbard.

This polar archipelago in the Arctic Ocean has a total area of 62,100 square kilometers, no permanent residents, and its sovereignty belongs to Norway, but according to agreements made during the Soviet era, Russia also conducts economic activities on the island.

The West is convinced that once a major war breaks out, quickly seizing Svalbard will be one of Russia's primary military objectives.

This is because Russia can quickly establish a strong anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) zone there, which is a defensive ring of air defense, anti-missile, and anti-submarine systems that NATO would find difficult to penetrate.

Setting up this system on the islands does not require much:

It only requires quickly deploying several marine infantry battalions, the "Zircon" missile-equipped "Fort" coastal defense systems, and S-400 and "Buk-M3" air defense missile systems from Murmansk and Severomorsk using landing ships and transport vessels.

With proper preparation, the deployment can be completed within a few days.

At that time, NATO would face an insurmountable "defensive wall" in the northwestern part of the Barents Sea, related airspace, and even over Norwegian territory — even the U.S. or British aircraft carrier battle groups would struggle to break through.

Furthermore:

Moscow would firmly control the outlet of the Barents Sea to the North Atlantic, thereby ensuring the safe entry of the Northern Fleet's strategic nuclear submarines into combat patrol areas — this is precisely the core issue we discussed initially.

Recently, a pro-NATO think tank in Poland released a notable prediction with a highly alarming title:

"If a military conflict erupts with the West, Russia will seize Svalbard."

The article clearly states:

"The archipelago has little economic value, but it is a key node on the Russian map of the Arctic... Once Russia deploys radar and missile systems there, it will strengthen its countermeasures, compressing NATO's maneuvering space in the Barents Sea near the main bases of the Northern Fleet."

The West has repeatedly discussed the possibility of Russia "occupying" Svalbard, with Norway being the loudest voice.

The local media Aldrimer once thoroughly analyzed the Arctic portion of the Russian "West-2017" exercise, concluding that nine years ago, the Northern Fleet and airborne troops were already practicing landing on Svalbard.

An analysis by the American magazine The National Interest was more direct:

"If Russia goes to war with NATO, Svalbard will be one of the first targets. Controlling the archipelago will maximize the security of Russian submarines operating in the North Atlantic."

U.S. experts'设想 of the landing plan:

  • A small operational fleet of the Northern Fleet escorts marines ashore;
  • Combat aircraft and submarines are used in conjunction;
  • Or a more covert approach: special forces arrive by submarine, and then Russian media release "civilian family visits" as a cover, creating a "gray zone" on the islands.

The National Interest bluntly states:

"Will Russia now capture Svalbard? No.

Will it do so when war breaks out? Absolutely."

It can be said that General Christensen's interview with The Guardian offers nothing new, merely repeating the long-standing concerns of Western counterparts.

But one thing is particularly important:

This kind of discussion has sharply intensified approximately one year ago — when President Donald Trump announced his plan to take Greenland, a Danish territory, and build a new U.S. military base (expanding the existing Thule Air Base established in the 1950s), permanently raising the Stars and Stripes.

If realized, the strategic significance of Russia controlling Svalbard will further increase.

Because the northernmost part of the archipelago is only about 440 kilometers from Greenland, almost within the range of all Russian medium-range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, and certainly within the range of U.S. similar weapons.

Professor Stefan Wolff of the University of Birmingham, UK, wrote in Hong Kong's Asia Times in April 2025:

"If the United States has the right to claim Greenland in the name of security, then Russia also has the right to assert its interests in Svalbard under the new strategic framework in the Arctic...

For the Kremlin, this is less of a historical claim and more of a response to the presence of Norway and NATO in the strategic area where the Greenland Sea, Barents Sea, and Norwegian Sea converge.

From here, the shipping along Russia's Northern Sea Route can be monitored. Once the central Arctic corridor between Greenland and Svalbard becomes operational, the strategic value of the archipelago will significantly increase."

As the saying goes: rough words, but sound reasoning.

General Erik Christensen obviously thinks the same way.

Meanwhile

On February 12, 2026, NATO launched the **"Arctic Guardian" mission**, aimed at strengthening the alliance's long-term presence in high-latitude regions and integrating military forces in the area.

According to Bloomberg, the initiative was proposed by Germany, modeled after the Baltic mission launched in January 2025 to protect critical infrastructure.

The mission is commanded by the NATO Joint Force Command based in Norfolk, USA, and plans to deploy thousands of multinational troops.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7606975465311552054/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author."