On the morning of April 16, Beijing time, a piece of news that shook the global semiconductor market leaked from the files of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC): NVIDIA confirmed that its "customized version" AI chip H20 designed for the Chinese market has been included in the U.S. export control list. According to the notice, the export of H20 and chips with equivalent performance to China and other countries/regions will require an export license, and "the license requirement will be indefinitely effective." This decision not only subjects NVIDIA to an inventory impairment loss exceeding $5.5 billion but may also trigger a structural reconstruction of the global AI chip supply chain.

As a compromise product designed by NVIDIA to circumvent U.S. export controls, the H20 chip has borne a complex mission since its inception. Although this AI chip based on the Hopper architecture is weaker than the flagship products H100 and H800 in terms of computing power and interconnect speed, it still has significant advantages in inference computing, and its pricing strategy is highly aggressive – the single card price ranges from $12,000 to $15,000, approximately 15% lower than Huawei's Ascend 910B. In February 2024, NVIDIA launched pre-orders for H20, with dealers' pricing for 8-card servers at 1.4 million yuan, a 30% decrease compared to the H800 server two years ago.

However, this meticulously planned "China strategy" ultimately collapsed in the whirlpool of geopolitics. NVIDIA disclosed that as of the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company will incur a charge of $5.5 billion due to the export control of H20, with related inventory and purchase commitment losses potentially reaching billions of dollars. More seriously, China is NVIDIA's fourth-largest market, with revenue reaching $17.108 billion in the natural year 2024, growing by 66%. If the supply of H20 continues to be interrupted, NVIDIA will not only lose over $10 billion in revenue but may also cede the strategic high ground of the Chinese AI chip market.

The implementation of the H20 export control was not accomplished overnight. Since the beginning of the year, market rumors and sentiment have experienced multiple reversals:

- In January, after DeepSeek launched a model breaking through computational capabilities, there were rumors within the Trump administration about stricter restrictions on H20;

- In early April, when NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump in Florida, the market optimistically expected the export restrictions would be relaxed;

- On April 16, the ban was finally implemented, causing NVIDIA's post-market stock price to plummet more than 6%, while AMD, TSMC, and other companies in the industrial chain also suffered setbacks.

This tug-of-war in policy博弈 directly triggered a buying spree in the Chinese market. According to distributors, major internet giants such as Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance significantly increased their H20 orders after the DeepSeek incident. The price of a single H20 server with 141GB of VRAM skyrocketed from 1 million yuan at the beginning of the year to 1.4 million yuan, with some experiencing "price changes every day." Many stalls in Shenzhen's Huaqiangbei electronic market suspended quotations and closed for business; practitioners frankly stated, "Mainly sealing inventories and observing, worried about drastic price fluctuations."

The supply disruption of H20 unexpectedly became a catalyst for the rise of domestic AI chips. According to reports by the Financial Times, ByteDance plans to purchase approximately 400 billion yuan worth of AI chips in 2025, with 60% of the suppliers being domestic. Huawei's Ascend and Cambricon are among the main beneficiaries. This trend is driven by the proactive choices of Chinese enterprises under geopolitical risks:

- Performance gap narrowing: Domestic AI chips have narrowed the gap with NVIDIA's comparable products in key metrics such as inference computing and energy efficiency;

- Ecosystem improvement: Frameworks like Huawei MindSpore and Cambricon are accelerating their adaptation, reducing customer migration costs;

- Strong policy support: China has listed the semiconductor industry as a strategic priority, with integrated circuit production growing by 34% in 2023 and import value decreasing by 10.8%.

Yu Xiekang, deputy chairman of the National Strategic Alliance for Integrated Circuit Packaging and Testing Industry Technology Innovation, pointed out: "In the short term, U.S. sanctions will intensify technological barriers, but in the long term, they will drive the restructuring of China's semiconductor industry. Now, China already has a complete industrial chain ecosystem; sanctions will become an accelerator for independent innovation."

NVIDIA's predicament is not unique. As one of the main foundries for H20 and other high-end chips, TSMC is facing dual pressure from the Trump administration in the form of "tariffs + factory construction": on April 8, Trump warned that if factories are not built in the U.S., a 100% tariff will be imposed. The next day, TSMC's stock price fell by 3%, with cumulative losses exceeding 16% over five trading days. AMD was also affected, facing $800 million in inventory losses due to export restrictions on its MI308 product. Although the company plans to apply for licenses, the approval prospects are dim.

This "cleaning" action led by the U.S. is triggering a chain reaction among global tech companies. Shares of companies such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom, and Applied Materials have fallen simultaneously. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has seen a cumulative decline of 22.55% so far this year. Analysts warn that if the restrictions continue to escalate, there could be a structural shortage in global AI computing power supply, forcing cloud service providers to adjust their capital expenditure plans.

In response to the U.S.' extreme pressure, the Chinese government has repeatedly expressed opposition. The Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the abuse of export control measures by the U.S. severely disrupts the stability of the global industrial chain, which is typical protectionist behavior. NVIDIA itself also made rare remarks when the new export control rules were introduced, warning that "controlling AI GPUs will force the world to turn to alternative solutions, harming American interests."

This article originates from Jinfeng Jie.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494062363742650921/

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