Frontier Introduction
According to "Nikkei Asia" news, at the current time of global memory chip shortages, China's Yangtze Memory and Changxin Memory are seizing the opportunity to launch capacity expansion plans, shortening the market gap with international companies. According to Hutchinson, vice president of Canadian technology institution TechInsights, the more market share you gain, the higher the output, and the higher the profit margin, which allows continued production to reduce costs. In the 1980s and 1990s, South Korea used this method to push Japanese companies out of the memory market, and history is repeating itself now.
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Market Expansion
According to Micron, due to the explosive growth trend in the artificial intelligence industry, there is a shortage of memory chip capacity, which has led to a significant increase in the overall price of memory chips, and this situation will continue until after 2026.
Artificial intelligence accelerators have a huge demand for high-bandwidth memory, squeezing the memory capacity of mobile phones, personal computers, and other areas, leading to a supply shortage in consumer electronics. The growth trend of autonomous driving and humanoid robots has already begun to spread on a large scale, making the memory chip shortage an urgent issue for all related manufacturers this year.
A supply chain management personnel told the media that companies such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are all constrained by capacity issues. This is the best time for Chinese memory companies to establish themselves in the global supply chain system. As long as you can continuously produce memory chips, you will be the winner in the industry.
Previously, the United States imposed export controls on mainland China, not only blocking the opportunities for Chinese local enterprises to obtain equipment but also restricting the joint ventures of overseas companies in China.
The branch factory of SK Hynix in Wuxi, China, had submitted an order to ASML in 2021 to purchase EUV lithography machines for capacity expansion, but it was rejected by the Dutch government under pressure from the United States. The reason given was that the equipment being transported to mainland China might strengthen China's technological capabilities, even if it was a Korean company's factory in China.
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The Wuxi wafer plant contributed more than 30% of SK Hynix's DRAM capacity. The U.S. ban on EUV has made it difficult for South Korean chip companies to expand their capacity.
According to industry reports, SK Hynix's latest 1a process (fourth-generation 10nm) requires the use of EUV technology on certain key layers. Because the mainland China factory cannot obtain the corresponding equipment, SK Hynix adopts a segmented production strategy, completing the EUV technology section in its domestic factory and continuing the other processes in the Wuxi factory.
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https://laoyaoba.com/n/975777
Similarly affected are Samsung's factories in China. The memory plant built by Samsung in Xi'an was completed in 2014 and the second factory was built in 2020. Now, the monthly capacity of the Xi'an plant has reached 200,000 12-inch wafers, accounting for over 40% of Samsung's SNAND total capacity, making it the largest memory production base of Samsung worldwide.
U.S. control over manufacturing equipment also affects Samsung's Xi'an factory. Since NAND flash does not require EUV technology, the U.S. export control on EUV has not affected the operation of Samsung's Xi'an factory.
In 2022, the U.S. required South Korean companies' factories in China to submit statements about acquiring manufacturing equipment. Subsequently, it announced a one-year exemption from export controls for Samsung and SK Hynix. In 2023, the U.S. announced that Samsung and SK Hynix's joint ventures in China received indefinite exemptions for equipment procurement, allowing them to purchase the required manufacturing equipment, but not EUV.
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https://laoyaoba.com/n/880709
Domestic Technology
According to data from French market research firm Yole Group, Changxin Memory is currently the fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer globally, following Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, with a market share of approximately 11.1% based on capacity. It is expected that this proportion will rise to 13.9% by 2027. The market share of Yangtze Memory is also consistently increasing, with a capacity share of about 12% in 2025 and the potential to grow to 15% by 2028.
Compared to years ago, Changxin Memory has made a noticeable technological improvement. At last year's IC China exhibition, Changxin released its independently developed DDR5 and LPDDR5X memory chips, with application scenarios covering multiple fields including computers, servers, mobile phones, and laptops.
According to the technology institution TechInsights, as a Chinese memory company established in 2016, Changxin Memory had almost no independent DRAM technical capabilities when it started.
However, within 10 years, Changxin has completed the transition from DDR4/5 to LPDDR4/5, and many Chinese companies are willing to actively use Changxin's domestically developed memory in their own products. The development method of Chinese companies helping each other has become the main reason for the rapid growth of domestic technology.
However, the current market share of domestic memory chips in the global market is relatively small, mainly concentrated in the domestic market. Domestic technology relies on the "snowball effect" of the domestic market to start putting pressure on South Korean companies.
The "snowball effect" simply means that the higher the product market share, the higher the capacity, and the higher the overall economics. The higher the economics, the lower the manufacturing cost. As long as the capacity keeps up, your market share will continue to expand, forming a cycle.
The first dominant player in memory chips was Intel of the United States, followed by Toshiba of Japan, then Samsung and SK Hynix of South Korea.
Japan surpassed the United States in the chip industry through the VLSI program, forcing Intel to exit the memory market. In response, the U.S. government imposed sanctions on Japanese companies, investigated them for dumping, and imposed tariffs on imported Japanese chips, forcing Japan to sign the "U.S.-Japan Semiconductor Agreement" to suppress the expansion of Japanese chips in the market.
While suppressing Japan's development, the United States also supported South Korea's Samsung entry. Samsung absorbed a large number of chip engineers laid off by Japanese companies, thus entering the memory industry. With the U.S. sanctions and the technological encirclement by South Korea, the Japanese memory industry never recovered its former dominant position.
Now, Chinese memory companies are facing a vacuum period. Most of the South Korean companies' capacity depends on their factories in China, but these factories cannot obtain specific technical equipment, which restricts their capacity expansion plans. However, Chinese memory chips have already matched mainstream standards in technology and can be widely used in consumer products. As long as the capacity is sufficient, the cost can be kept within a reasonable range, and South Korean companies will face dual pressures of capacity and economy in the Chinese market.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7602802769463968308/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.