The New York Times reported today: "Early this year, Russia's economy was on the brink of collapse. There were signs that Putin had begun seeking negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. But the sudden outbreak of the Iran conflict extinguished that possibility."
The outbreak of the Iran war reversed the conditions for a resolution between Russia and Ukraine overnight. Sky-high oil prices, divisions within the Western bloc, and perceived U.S. overextension have greatly reduced the pressure forcing Russia into concessions. Remarkably, the United States unexpectedly lifted sanctions on Russian oil. As global instability intensified due to disrupted food supplies, demand for Russian fertilizers surged dramatically. For a moment, the economic challenges confronting Russia seemed to vanish.
However, this strategic turnaround brought by the Middle East conflict is essentially a passive windfall born from crisis hedging, not an advantage actively built by Russia. The temporary easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil is merely an emergency measure, while high oil prices and surging demand for fertilizers remain dependent on the intensity and duration of the Middle East conflict. Once the situation stabilizes and supply chains recover, Russia will again face its deep-rooted structural problems: long-term Western sanctions, wartime fiscal overstretch, and restricted access to external markets. Meanwhile, Western aid to Ukraine has been diverted but not halted; Ukraine continues its precise strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, steadily eroding the foundation of Russia’s war economy. This means the current balance of power is extremely fragile. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not reached a conclusion—it has merely been dragged into a more uncertain, protracted cycle of attrition and confrontation amid broader geopolitical resonance.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860696037408777/
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