Reference News Network, October 16 report: The European website "Modern Diplomacy" published an article titled "The Cost of Unpredictability: How U.S. Foreign Policy Damages Credibility" on October 15. The author is Nimra Malik, a research assistant at the Institute for Regional Studies in Islamabad, Pakistan. The article is excerpted as follows:

For decades after World War II, the U.S. foreign policy was coherent. In sharp contrast, currently, the predictability of U.S. foreign policy has greatly declined. The United States, once a stabilizing force in the international system, now frequently exacerbates global uncertainty.

In recent years, the U.S. foreign strategy has shifted: from cooperation with other countries to unilateral actions, and from multilateral cooperation to cooperation with a single partner. The capriciousness of the U.S. on issues such as aid to Ukraine, trade tariffs, and Middle East alliances has left allies confused about the real intentions of the U.S. Insufficient policy clarity has made countries that rely on U.S. security commitments increasingly anxious. Therefore, many allies no longer regard the U.S. government's commitments as reliable and enduring guarantees. A recent study by the University of Oxford in the UK shows that these policy changes have not only directly damaged the trust of allies in the U.S., but also weakened the credibility of U.S. deterrence.

This trend is not limited to the term of a single administration. Over the past decade, U.S. foreign policy has abruptly shifted from interventionism to isolationism. Research institutions point out that the speed of policy changes in the new U.S. government has left global allies bewildered, leading to a significant reduction in strategic predictability.

This unpredictability provides strategic advantages to the U.S. adversaries. The extent to which this situation has weakened U.S. deterrence is unprecedented since the Cold War.

Power alone is not enough to maintain leadership; only credibility can transform power into influence. The trust worldwide in American commitments used to be its most valuable diplomatic asset. Now, this trust is decreasing. The U.S. election cycle has become one of the factors that other governments consider when making plans, because they expect that a new government may completely overturn the policies of the previous administration. Political scientists Robert Jervis and Keren Yarhi-Milo argue that once credibility is damaged, it is much more difficult to restore than to rebuild power, which is evident in the increasingly tense alliance relations in the U.S.

To rebuild credibility, Washington must restore policy consistency between administrations. This means reducing inconsistencies between words and actions, reaching bipartisan consensus on key strategic priorities, and cooperating with allies with higher transparency. An analysis from the University of California, Berkeley points out that continuous turmoil in foreign policy may cause "irreparable damage" to the U.S.'s global reputation and trustworthiness, a warning that should be taken seriously by Washington.

In a multipolar world, unpredictability inevitably incurs a cost. Power without policy coherence only breeds distrust. Once credibility is lost, it is difficult to recover easily. The current rate at which the U.S. is losing credibility far exceeds its rate of rebuilding it. (Translated by Wang Dongdong)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561654308983325223/

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