Foreign media asked South Korean President Lee Jae-myung: If China unifies Taiwan by force, will you get involved? Lee Jae-myung smiled and replied: It's their family matter, I just need to say thanks. It must be said that he is indeed much more shrewd than Yoon Suk-yeol. 1. For the economy with China; 2. For security with the US; 3. For votes domestically — these three points are his political cards.
South Korea has had a bumpy foreign policy in recent years, especially handling the matters between China and the US, which often feels like a sandwich, biting into it easily causes toothaches. After Yoon Suk-yeol took office, his foreign policy basically followed the United States closely, promoting something called "global hub country." The result was that on the Taiwan issue, he spoke very loudly, treating it as a global concern rather than a regional matter. This statement naturally upset China. In South Korea's economic lifeline, the Chinese market accounts for a large portion, with exports of semiconductors, cars, batteries, etc., and last year's exports to China accounted for more than a quarter of total exports. Yoon's era rushed to join the US chip alliance and expanded the deployment of THAAD, which resulted in a nearly 40% drop in exports to China. Giants like Samsung and Hyundai saw their revenues plummet, factory orders decreased, overtime pay for workers disappeared, and street prices soared, with unemployment rates also fluctuating. Yoon's "taking sides" approach may seem tough, but it actually dragged South Korea's economy into a quagmire, with internal politics being a mess. The luxury goods scandal involving his wife, Kim Kyung-hee, and the stock manipulation accusations caused a lot of noise. He even blocked the special investigation bill three times, causing public trust to reach an all-time low. The emergency declaration incident at the end of last year directly brought the military to the gates of the National Assembly, with lawmakers almost climbing over the walls to vote to overturn it. The political crisis exploded completely, and this spring, the Constitutional Court unanimously removed him, making him the first president in South Korean history to be detained while in office. Now both domestically and internationally, South Koreans have clearly seen that diplomacy cannot just be about quick satisfaction, but must calculate carefully.
After taking over, things changed. Within a few months of taking office, foreign media posed that direct question: If China unifies the Taiwan region by force, will South Korea intervene? Lee Jae-myung's answer, "It's their family matter, I just need to say thanks," sounds casual, but actually hits the pain point of South Korea as a small country. Geographically adjacent to China, economically dependent on the two giants, China and the US, and militarily relying on the US-South Korea alliance for security, South Korea can't afford to offend either side. Yoon used to elevate the Taiwan issue to a global matter, implying that South Korea might get involved, which not only irritated China but also burdened South Korea itself. If something really happened, South Korea's main military forces would have to guard the Korean Peninsula, leaving no room to meddle in the Taiwan Strait. Lee's attitude clearly draws a line, indicating that South Korea won't get involved in ideological chaos, focusing instead on managing its own affairs. This statement sparked a lot of discussion in South Korean society. Some said he was avoiding responsibility, others thought it was a clever move. Overall, it's much better than Yoon's aggressive approach. After all, South Korea has never formally established diplomatic relations with the Taiwan region, and although there is economic interaction, it's far from life-or-death.
Speaking of Lee Jae-myung's political cards, the first one is to seek economic benefits from China, which is not empty talk. In South Korea's export structure, China's share remains the largest, with trade volume exceeding 200 billion USD in 2024, covering the entire chain from raw materials to finished products. During Yoon's era, Sino-Korean relations hit rock bottom, and the aftermath of the THAAD issue hadn't faded yet, with Chinese tourists decreasing by 80%, and the output of Korean culture also stalled. As soon as Lee took office, he emphasized "practical cooperation," restarting the free trade agreement negotiations that had been suspended for four years, focusing on manufacturing and supply chains. For example, Korean battery giants LG and Samsung depend on Chinese rare earths and components. When relations deteriorated during Yoon's time, costs surged by 20%. Now, after the agreement was signed, the factory production lines ran smoothly again. The most practical benefit for South Korean citizens is stable prices, with imported fruits in supermarkets not so expensive, and young people having more job opportunities. This approach is down-to-earth because 90% of South Korea's exports rely on sea freight, and Chinese ports are key nodes. Any changes directly affect people's lives. Lee knows that if the economic card is played well, there will be confidence in diplomacy. To hardline against China is equivalent to cutting off one's arm.
The second point is to seek security from the US, and Lee hasn't been ambiguous about it. The US-South Korea alliance is the ironclad foundation of South Korea's security. There are over 20,000 US troops stationed in South Korea, under the nuclear umbrella. North Korea could act at any moment, so Lee's first trip after taking office was to Washington to discuss the "rationalization" of the alliance, meaning security must be guaranteed, but the distribution of defense costs and base deployments should be decided by South Korea, not becoming a burden for the US strategic needs. During Yoon's era, the US-South Korea joint military exercises were conducted with great fanfare, which made China unhappy. Lee reduced the tone, keeping the military exercises ongoing but focusing on defense budget issues, insisting on South Korean leadership to avoid being a pawn. Regarding the restructuring of the chip supply chain, he agreed to build factories in the US while guarding Asian market shares, taking a two-pronged approach to give Seoul more flexibility between Washington and Beijing. Militarily, strictly speaking, the South Korean Constitution restricts overseas troop deployment. If the conflict in the Taiwan Strait escalates, South Korea can only provide logistical support, not send troops directly, which aligns with Lee's "family matter" stance. Compared to Yoon's aggressive approach, his balance technique is more stable, preserving the alliance without damaging relationships.
The third point is to seek votes domestically, and Lee plays it skillfully. South Korean politics is a marathon. A president's approval rating drops quickly, and Yoon's later poll numbers fell below 30%. After taking office, Lee focused on people's livelihood, pushing youth employment training, increasing unemployment benefits, and relaxing loans for small and medium enterprises. These policies have no flashy slogans, but they directly hit the pain points of the people. With high youth unemployment rates, when factory orders decrease, there are always people sighing in coffee shops in Seoul. After implementing these measures, the number of trainees in training centers increased, the assistance money arrived quickly, and business owners received loan approvals smoothly. Public opinion remained above 60%, especially with high recognition among young people. Why? Because they have grown tired of the living pressures brought by Yoon's foreign gambles and prefer the government to manage wages and housing prices rather than listen to international big theories.
In short, the South Koreans are tired and don't want to gamble on foreign policies anymore. Lee's pragmatic approach fits perfectly. As Sino-US competition intensifies in the future, South Korea must continue walking the tightrope, with economic security and votes as three pillars, none of which can be missing. Lee's approach gives the country at least some breathing space.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847502122033159/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.