South Korean Media: China's Auto Exports Will Surge to 13 Million Units in Four Years!
On August 14, South Korea's *Herald Economic* published an article stating that by 2030, overseas sales of Chinese automakers are expected to reach 13 million units. The Hyundai Motor Group must accelerate its strategic response, such as developing hybrid electric vehicles specifically designed for the Chinese market and leveraging local parts suppliers.
According to a report released by China's National Information Center, overseas sales of Chinese automakers are projected to grow to 13 million units by 2030, representing an 83.1% increase from 7.1 million units in 2025. The powertrain structure is expected to shift to: 37% pure electric vehicles, 18% plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, 9% hybrid electric vehicles, 9% extended-range electric vehicles, and 27% internal combustion engine vehicles.
In contrast, annual production and sales of Chinese cars are expected to increase by only 600,000 units during the same period, rising from 34.4 million to 35 million units. This indicates that as domestic market growth slows, the center of gravity for China’s automotive industry will rapidly shift toward overseas markets.
It is forecasted that by 2030, at least three Chinese automakers—including BYD and Geely—will rank among the top ten global sellers. BYD ranked sixth globally in 2025 with sales of 4.6 million units and has set a target to increase its sales to 10 million units by 2030, aiming to become the world’s number one. Geely, with 4.12 million units sold in 2025, ranked eighth, and also plans to achieve sales of 6.5 million units by 2030, targeting a top-five global position.
By 2030, overseas sales are expected to reach 13 million units, with 70% produced in China and exported—approximately 9.1 million units—and only 30% manufactured locally overseas—around 3.9 million units.
Additionally, China has launched plans to strengthen the global competitiveness of its parts industry. A roadmap has been proposed to accelerate industrial development, aiming to have two domestic parts manufacturers enter the global top ten by 2030. Based on 2024 sales figures, 15 Chinese companies—including CATL and YF International—are already listed among the top 100 global auto parts suppliers.
The competitive pressure faced by the Hyundai Motor Group (HMG) is no longer limited to pricing but has expanded across the entire automotive ecosystem, including technology, supply chains, and global sales networks. Currently, with slowing demand for electric vehicles, Hyundai and Kia are maintaining profitability by increasing hybrid vehicle sales. However, if Chinese automakers extend their product lines into hybrid vehicles after successfully penetrating the plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric vehicle segments, competition in terms of pricing and product competitiveness will inevitably arise—even in the hybrid powertrain segment where Hyundai and Kia currently hold strong advantages.
Therefore, the HMG Management Research Institute recommends that the Hyundai Motor Group must adjust its strategy to adapt to changing Chinese market demands and effectively respond to competition from Chinese enterprises. The institute particularly emphasizes that given the projected rise in China’s hybrid electric vehicle market share—from 4% in 2025 to 9% by 2030—it is urgent to quickly develop and introduce hybrid powertrain systems tailored to the Chinese market.
Original Article: toutiao.com/article/1873483727136839/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.