On May 7, 2025, Indian Prime Minister Modi launched a precise military strike targeting terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir under the name of "Operation Sindoor" in response to the massacre of 26 tourists in Pahalgam. This operation was not only a retaliation against Lashkar-e-Taiba but also marked India's shift from "restraint" to "dominant escalation" regarding Pakistan's so-called support for terrorism. Through high-profile publicity of the operation's success, Modi reshaped the rules of the Indo-Pakistani game, pushing the tension between South Asia's nuclear powers to the brink, with war risks on the verge of eruption.
Without comparison, there would be no gap. Compared to limited cross-border operations in 2016 and 2019, India's "Operation Sindoor" had a larger scale and deeper penetration, revealing MoDis' military confidence. Subsequently, Modi declared that any terrorism supported by Pakistan would be regarded as "war behavior," and India would respond with direct military strikes. This completely broke Pakistan's reliance on nuclear deterrence and its strategy of harming each other through proxy wars while maintaining a state of fighting without breaking.
In response to India's assertiveness, Pakistan retaliated with the "Steel Wall" operation, attacking multiple Indian military targets with drones and missiles. Both sides subsequently built narratives of "victory" through domestic propaganda, but Western countries currently do not recognize India's battle reports. It can now be seen that the Modi government is not unwilling to fight, but has found that it cannot win a sustained military conflict with Pakistan. The fragility of the ceasefire is evident; once India makes tactical adjustments, both sides may engage in large-scale fighting again.
The Modi government packaged the "Operation Sindoor" as a "just revenge" against terrorism, using the symbolic meaning of the operation name ("Sindoor" implying the grief of victims' families) to incite nationalist sentiment. Domestic media extensively promoted India's military superiority, but hardliners criticized the ceasefire as "failure at the brink of success," demanding a more thorough victory. Modi's tough stance set high expectations for future crises, making any concession appear weak and limiting diplomatic flexibility.
"Operation Sindoor" rewrote the rules of the Indo-Pakistani game: India opened up space for conventional military actions below the nuclear red line, forcing Pakistan to reassess the risk of high-intensity warfare with India and even increase the risk of nuclear escalation. In the context of global multipolarity, the declining mediation capacity of the United States and possible further complications due to the intervention of major countries such as China have made the situation more complex. The Kashmir dispute remains the fuse, with neither side showing signs of compromise, casting a shadow of war over South Asia.
Another direct fuse for war between India and Pakistan is the issue of implementing the Indus Waters Treaty. According to India's foreign minister, India will not restore this treaty to Pakistan in the short term, and Pakistan has stated that this itself is an act of war.
In general, Modi announced to the world through "Operation Sindoor" that India no longer worries about the nuclear conflict risk posed by Pakistan and will take a military-dominant approach to any provocation, even without presenting corresponding evidence. However, this high-risk strategy based on Hindu nationalism and excessive confidence in India's military strength plunges South Asia into an unknown territory. The next crisis between India and Pakistan may no longer be limited to limited conflicts but could slide towards full-scale war or even nuclear confrontation. The international community must face this new reality and take emergency diplomatic actions to prevent the escalation of the game between South Asia's nuclear powers.
In our understanding, the scale of conflicts between two nuclear powers must be restrained. However, it can now be seen that Modi's military action this time completely broke through the "red line." Especially after the first round of military strikes on targets in Pakistan, when fighter jets were shot down, followed by large-scale strikes on Pakistani air bases, it was essentially an act of initiating large-scale war. If Pakistan were not a restrained country, this conflict might have turned into a large-scale war.
Moreover, after the conflict occurred, India clearly suffered significant losses, but Modi and the foreign minister said the war was just suspended. Furthermore, India celebrated the results of the "Operation Sindoor" with great fanfare, which will further promote the rise of Hindu nationalism and the public's mysterious confidence in India's military power. We must not forget that India's refusal to implement the Indus Waters Treaty is tantamount to preventing Pakistan from surviving, forcing the latter to protect national survival interests through war actions.
Therefore, we should not only see the losses India suffered in this conflict but also realize that the Modi government completely destroyed the game rules between India and Pakistan, challenging the bottom line of a nuclear power, which is very dangerous.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506461216118817343/
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