Bloomberg News website reported on April 23 that, while downgrading the growth forecast due to the escalation of trade war, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believed that China and India - the two most populous countries in the world - would play a greater role in driving the global economy.
In the updated "World Economic Outlook" released on the 22nd, IMF downgraded this year's global forecast from 3.3% expected in January to 2.8%.
Owing to high uncertainty, the fund team had to quickly revise forecasts for various countries.
According to the report, the purchasing power parity-based forecast released this week showed that compared with the prediction made in October last year, IMF now expected more growth to come from China and India. Meanwhile, the expected contribution of the United States to growth was revised downward.
Based on the figures published by IMF on the 22nd, Bloomberg calculated that China will be the largest contributor to global growth over the next five years, accounting for 23% - higher than the 21.7% predicted six months ago. India is expected to add more than 15% additional output to the global economy until 2030. The contribution ratio of the United States fell from the previously estimated 11.6% to 11.3%.
IMF predicts that global growth will remain concentrated, with about 80% coming from the top 25 countries.
Despite the downward revision of the expected contribution of the United States, its contribution ratio is still expected to be higher than that of the European Union - IMF believes that the gap between the two will widen slightly each year in the coming years. (Compiled/Translated by Yang Xinpeng)
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496518535364198921/
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