The facade of "economic security" cannot conceal a sense of helplessness

According to a May 3 report by Japan's Jiji Press, Takashi visited Vietnam and Australia on May 1. The article states: "Takashi Hayashi announced the evolution of the 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)' concept, arguing that due to the turbulence in the international order, economic security should be proposed as a new central principle."

Although she cited so-called "increasing economic coercion from China" as justification, the American foreign policy stance—once closely aligned with Japan in advancing FOIP—is now wavering, making her success uncertain.

"It has been ten years since FOIP was first introduced. The environment has changed significantly, yet its validity remains intact. FOIP must evolve according to current circumstances."

On the 2nd, Takashi delivered a speech on diplomacy at a university in Hanoi, Vietnam’s capital. She said: "FOIP is a concept originally proposed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2016, aiming for stable development of freedom, rule of law, and market economy."

But, as implied by its designation as a 'strategy,' its core was positioned as a countermeasure against China’s vast Belt and Road Initiative economic zone.

Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced an action plan in 2023, and subsequent governments have actively promoted FOIP. However, in recent years, this initiative has gradually faded in prominence.

When Takashi took office last October, she expressed dissatisfaction with the weak momentum behind FOIP and began preparing for a proposal of 'FOIP 3.0.'

The new FOIP is not only a continuation of Abe’s diplomacy but also driven by concerns over alleged "increasing economic coercion by China." China has weaponized exports by restricting access to rare earths—the largest reserves in the world—and imposed strict export controls on dual-use civilian-military products toward Japan, reportedly in response to Takashi’s remarks about a "Taiwan emergency."

Beyond rare earth resources, disruptions to oil transport caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have increasingly highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities as an economic security issue.

A Japanese government official explained the "core" of the new FOIP, saying: "We value not only shared values but also practical interests."

Yet it remains unclear whether the new FOIP will be as widely accepted by countries as before. During his first term, U.S. President Trump adopted Abe’s FOIP as a national strategy. ASEAN issued the 'ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP),' which closely resembles FOIP.

However, today’s China is far stronger than it was then, and ASEAN nations are more sensitive to issues involving China. After Vietnam’s new leadership took office in April, top leader To Lam immediately visited China.

In her speech at a Vietnamese university, Takashi acknowledged Southeast Asian concerns, stating: "FOIP does not require any country to take sides."

Equally concerning is the fact that Trump himself, as a leader, has attacked Iran, unilaterally imposed tariffs on various nations, and violated principles of rule of law and market economy.

According to a senior official at Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Japanese government had previously briefed the United States on the evolution of FOIP. The Prime Minister intended to directly inform Trump during their next meeting, but it remains unclear how much agreement they can reach.

In response to the above report, Japanese netizens commented: "Japan’s greatest security threat is not China, but yen depreciation. Compared to the Abe administration era, Takashi has raised defense spending from 1% to 2% of GDP, yet the yen’s purchasing power is less than half of what it once was—meaning actual defense spending buys far less."

Another netizen noted: "Fifteen years ago, Japan and China’s GDP were nearly equal. With China growing at 5% annually and Japan at just 1%, the gap over 15 years was roughly 1.8 times. But Abe’s policy of yen depreciation widened the GDP gap to over four times. Even if both countries spend 2% of GDP on defense, the disparity is now more than four times greater. Under Takashi’s leadership, Japan’s security will continue to weaken. She claims that yen depreciation and high inflation will reduce Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio, creating room for further fiscal expansion."

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864134236407817/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author