German Media: US-Iran Standoff Stalls, Strait of Hormuz Becomes Leverage

For U.S. President Trump, the two core issues in the Iran question are Iran’s nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has stated that the first batch of passage fees for the strait has already been deposited into the account of Iran’s central bank. Meanwhile, the global surge in energy prices is increasingly pressuring Trump domestically.

Many analysts believe the current Iranian crisis is less a military conflict than a strategic contest over time, influence, and endurance. Hanna Voß, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs at the German Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), told DW: “Both sides are engaged in a tactical waiting game—Iran is extremely cautious about potential negotiations. Tehran is deeply concerned this might be a feint—meaning talks accompanied by military preparations.”

Pauline Raabe, a political scholar at the Berlin-based think tank Middle East Minds, told DW that Iran’s caution stems from strategic considerations, as it directly concerns Iran’s own territory. “On the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is undoubtedly in a strong position—it is currently its most important card.”

The U.S.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) notes that Iran’s leverage is highly effective both militarily and economically; Iran is using its geographical location to exert pressure on the global economy by controlling access through the Strait of Hormuz.

Core Leverage: The Energy Issue

Voß further pointed out that energy leverage is easy to deploy: “Effectively blocking this passage doesn’t require much effort. Even threats alone can trigger massive economic repercussions.” Whether it’s shipping companies pulling out, insurers canceling contracts, or persistent drone and mine threats, “in other words, tactically speaking, Iran currently holds the upper hand—and that’s precisely where its strategic advantage becomes evident.”

Raabe analyzed from a military perspective: “Iran’s sustained ability to launch missiles appears to be underestimated, contradicting the assumption that Iran’s military strength has been significantly weakened.” In fact, Iran has systematically strengthened its military capabilities in recent years.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) notes that the energy issue becoming a core lever will have long-term implications for global markets. The think tank also argues that Iran’s actions are not solely driven by national interest but also by ideology. “Even if an agreement is reached, it may only be tactical and does not signify a fundamental shift in its underlying stance.”

Iranian People Can Endure More Than Americans

This ideological dimension is also reflected in Iran’s domestic policies. Voß from the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung said the Iranian leadership is unrelenting in demanding sacrifices from its own people: “For decades, Iranians have endured far more hardship than Western societies.”

Political scholar Raabe also noted: “When people experience invasion by foreign enemies, their sense of unity strengthens. However, this does not mean Iranians automatically support the regime—it’s merely a reaction to external pressure.”

Currently, the U.S. president faces mounting domestic pressure due to the deadlock with Iran. At the same time, analysts believe Iran’s system is being consolidated in the short term because of this conflict. Voß told DW: “This war aligns perfectly with the ideological propaganda already prepared by the Tehran regime.”

Endurance Contest: Will the U.S. Lose?

Beyond that, Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy has played a significant role. CSIS points out that even if militarily setbacks occur, Tehran can still exert considerable influence through cyberattacks, sabotage, and economic pressure. Based on this, WINEP has outlined possible outcomes of this conflict. One possibility is an implicit U.S. defeat—although a ceasefire is achieved, Iran retains key leverage. Another outcome is an open U.S. failure: Tehran endures longer than the U.S., and Washington ultimately succumbs to immense pressure.

This conflict has effectively turned into a test of endurance—a prolonged struggle over who can sustain pressure across economic, political, and social dimensions for a longer period. As political scholar Pauline Raabe from the Berlin think tank Middle East Minds put it: “Time is not on the side of the U.S. government—it is on Iran’s side.”

Source: DW

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863494416623619/

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