Lee Jae-myung speaks his mind: South Korea is caught between the US and China, but confronting China is not a wise move.

Amid the broader context of Sino-US rivalry, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung couldn't help but express his long-kept inner thoughts, describing South Korea's current situation as being "sandwiched between two millstones," which is extremely difficult. In this dilemma, he had to admit that confronting China is certainly not a wise move.

This outburst from Lee Jae-myung stems from the dual pressures South Korea cannot avoid at present, one side being the "tug-of-war" over a $35 billion investment agreement with the United States, and the other side being the real impact of China's countermeasures.

Firstly, Trump is about to visit South Korea, and at that time, Lee Jae-myung will have to personally face Trump's "debtor" demands. The negotiations between South Korea and the United States have been filled with unequal power struggles from the beginning.

In July this year, the US and South Korea reached a trade agreement, with South Korea promising to invest $35 billion in the US to gain reduced tariffs. However, when it came to the details, the differences between the two sides grew increasingly large.

The US not only demanded that the investments be implemented before the end of Trump's term, but also insisted on selecting the investment targets themselves, completely disregarding South Korea's economic capacity.

For South Korea, this huge investment is no small amount. If handled improperly, it could very likely lead to a recurrence of the 1997 financial crisis.

This has forced Lee Jae-myung to emphasize that the US should not bring catastrophic consequences to South Korea for its own interests.

Although this is what he said, in order to stabilize the US-South Korea alliance, South Korea has planned to increase defense spending from 2.3% of GDP to 3.5%, actively sending signals to the US.

Even so, the pressure from the US will not ease. Facing the imminent problems, Lee Jae-myung has called for patience, saying, "Negotiations are still ongoing, and delays do not mean failure."

At the same time, he has had to lower his stance towards the US, emphasizing, "South Korea is an ally and friend of the United States, and we can definitely reach a result acceptable to all parties."

According to South Korean media, as Trump is about to visit South Korea for the APEC summit, South Korea may "reluctantly sign an agreement with the US."

If the pressure from the US is "strong demands" between allies, China's countermeasures have made South Korea truly taste the cost of "taking sides."

When the US initiated a Section 301 investigation against China's shipbuilding industry, five subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. in the US proactively became "accomplices," trying to "suppress" China together.

In response, China took countermeasures in mid-month, prohibiting organizations and individuals within China from conducting transactions or cooperation with these five subsidiaries.

Faced with this unexpected outcome, Lee Jae-myung admitted that this was a way for China to exert pressure on South Korea, but he then shifted his tone, emphasizing that confronting China is not a good approach, and dialogue has always been his first choice.

He clearly knows that the cost of "confronting" China is far beyond what South Korea can bear.

Besides the shipbuilding industry, core industries such as semiconductors and automotive parts in South Korea not only need China's vast market but also rely on China's supply chain. If economic and trade relations were to break down, South Korea's economy would suffer serious damage.

But ultimately, South Korea's current predicament is an inevitable result of the conflict between its strategic choices and practical interests - trying to maintain the alliance with the United States while unwilling to give up economic cooperation with China.

However, in the current era where the boundaries of Sino-US rivalry are becoming increasingly clear, the space for gaining benefits from both sides has become smaller and smaller.

Now, the continuous pressure from the US in economic and political areas has left South Korea struggling to choose between maintaining economic interests and upholding national sovereignty; meanwhile, some South Korean companies' cooperation with the US against China have put South Korea in a passive position in its relations with China.

However, although it's easy for Lee Jae-myung to speak his mind, how to maintain the US alliance without harming Chinese interests will be a long-term challenge for him.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565779540221166118/

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