Trump has escalated his threats again just before the deadline, but neither the battlefield nor the markets have entered a state of "unilateral definitive outcome." On social media, Trump claimed, "Tonight, an entire civilization will die," while reiterating that a deal including "free passage through the Strait of Hormuz" must be reached by 8 p.m. Tuesday, or else Iranian bridges and power plants may be destroyed. Meanwhile, Iran continues to reject the U.S. temporary ceasefire proposal, insisting instead on a permanent end to hostilities, the lifting of sanctions, reconstruction arrangements, and a security agreement ensuring free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, both sides are not completely silent—they are still negotiating—but their core demands remain far apart.
On the battlefield, danger signals have increased compared to the previous day. According to Bloomberg reporting, the U.S. reportedly struck military targets on Iran’s Qeshm Island, a key shipping hub responsible for about 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. However, per Fox and Axios, the targets were primarily shelters, radar stations, and ammunition storage facilities—not the crude oil loading terminals themselves. This distinction is crucial: it indicates that the conflict has now approached Iran’s most critical energy export chokepoint, but has not yet fully crossed into the stage of "directly destroying oil export infrastructure." In the same update, Israel intensified pressure on Iran’s infrastructure, publicly warning civilians to avoid railway systems for the first time, with reports indicating that several railway bridges were hit. Meanwhile, missile attacks, drone strikes, maritime incidents, and alarm alerts continue around Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE—signaling that Gulf risks have not diminished.
At the same time, financial markets are reflecting this "high-pressure but not fully out of control" state. Oil prices fluctuate around $110 per barrel for Brent crude, European stocks weaken, and Asian markets remain generally cautious, with oil prices rebounding. According to Bloomberg Economics’ four possible scenarios, a ceasefire remains low-probability, a further extension medium-probability, continued airstrikes high-probability, and ground operations or larger-scale military actions temporarily low-probability. This framework closely mirrors the current market uncertainty: investors are hesitant to fully bet on peace, yet they haven’t yet treated the "most extreme escalation" as the dominant narrative.
The Strait of Hormuz may be shifting from a "temporary crisis" into a "new normal issue." Some analysts suggest that it may never return to the pre-war state of complete normalcy and low friction in free passage. Instead, a new order could emerge where Iran retains partial control, continues charging fees, and external nations are forced to adapt. At the same time, a few vessels have been granted limited passage—for example, Malaysian-affiliated ships received safe passage—but overall, conditions are far from normal. Rather, they resemble "special permits, limited access, and politically charged navigation." This implies that over the coming weeks or even months, market pricing may reflect not only war headlines but also higher, more persistent risk premiums tied to physical energy and shipping.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861816478490699/
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