On the afternoon of October 21, the prime minister designation election in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors of the Japanese Diet came to a close. 64-year-old Sanae Takeda defeated her opponent with a margin of 237 votes, becoming Japan's first female prime minister in history.

However, for Takeda, the first challenge of her administration is already right around the corner—how to deal with the "mess" left by former Prime Minister Ishiba.

On that day, Kyodo News had already sensed the crisis: Trump is expected to visit Japan at the end of this month, mainly to come personally to "collect debt"—the $55 billion investment bill promised by the Ishiba government to the United States.

Trump confirmed the day before that he would soon visit Japan.

Let's first talk about Takeda's path to becoming prime minister, which was full of dangers and obstacles.

Firstly, when she was elected as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party on October 4, due to the long-term dominance of the LDP in the Diet and the 26-year ruling coalition with the Komeito Party, it was generally believed that the position of prime minister was already "in her pocket."

However, only six days later, the Komeito Party suddenly announced its withdrawal from the coalition, dissatisfied with her far-right stance. Overnight, what was originally a straightforward election turned into a fierce struggle.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party then joined forces with the New Party Nippon to form a "opposition alliance," trying to block Takeda's path to becoming prime minister.

To break the deadlock, Takeda had to negotiate with the opposition party and finally signed a joint governance agreement with the Osaka-based party on October 20.

To facilitate this cooperation, she made many key concessions: promising to completely resolve the issue of political donations within the LDP during her term, submitting a bill related to the "second capital" of Osaka next January, reducing the food consumption tax to zero within two years, and even agreeing to cut one-tenth of the seats in the House of Representatives (about 46 seats).

Additionally, the Osaka-based party insisted on adopting a "non-cabinet cooperation" model, not sending members into the cabinet, but allowing the head of the National Public Safety Commission, Takanori Hayashida, to serve as "Prime Minister's Advisor."

This seemingly flexible cooperation method has hidden risks. The Osaka-based party does not have to bear the responsibility of the cabinet, and in the future, if there are policy disagreements, they may withdraw at any time, making this coalition government inherently unstable from the very beginning.

The domestic political difficulties are far from over. Currently, the LDP and the Osaka-based party together have only 119 seats in the House of Councillors, far short of the 125 required for a majority.

According to the Japanese Constitution, ordinary proposals require approval from both houses to take effect. If the House of Councillors rejects a proposal, the House of Representatives needs a two-thirds majority to override it. This means that Takeda's various policy initiatives could be constrained by the opposition parties.

Even within the LDP itself, her foundation is not solid. Policy differences and the "black money" scandal are like time bombs that could trigger internal party crises at any time.

Returning to the main topic, currently, Takeda must deal with the domestic political dilemma of "split chambers" and also face Trump's "extreme pressure."

This is undoubtedly a huge pressure for Takeda. The US-Japan agreement signed by the Ishiba government has been controversial, and now it falls to Takeda to "clean up the mess."

If she cannot meet Trump's demands, Japan may face new tariff threats from the United States; but if she fully accepts them, it will be difficult to explain to the domestic public, as large-scale investments in the US could affect Japan's own economic development and industrial layout.

Japan's economy has been facing many challenges in recent years, including inflationary pressures, exchange rate fluctuations, and high rice prices, which have significantly increased the cost of living for the people.

To this end, Takeda specially appointed Akira Akazawa, who had entered the U.S. eight times, as the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, trying to respond to Trump's investment requirements, but the results remain uncertain.

However, it is worth noting that Trump's visit to Japan this time may not just be a simple "investment collection."

The U.S. Ambassador to Japan, Glass, has already warned Japan to "strengthen defense capabilities and take on more responsibilities for deterring China," while also hoping that Japan will increase investments in American critical minerals to help the U.S. reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths.

Evidently, this is an attempt to make Japan more closely aligned with the U.S. in both security and economic supply chains, jointly "containing" China. This needs to be closely watched.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563580049589355054/

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