Bloomberg reported on September 24 that, according to informed sources, the original annual delivery target for the C919, China's flagship aircraft model, set by COMAC was 75 aircraft. However, this target has been significantly reduced to approximately 25 aircraft, a reduction of two-thirds. This drastic "shrinking" of the delivery target actually reflects the intense competition in the international supply chain and the difficult situation faced by China's domestically produced passenger aircraft in breaking through. This adjustment means that COMAC's actual delivery capacity this year is only one-third of its initial optimistic expectations.

As of September 2025, COMAC has delivered only five C919 aircraft to three major customers: China Eastern Airlines, China National Aviation Corporation (CAAC), and China Southern Airlines. These three airlines had each ordered 100 C919 aircraft and had previously expected to receive about 32 in total this year.

The significant reduction in the C919 delivery target directly reflects the challenges COMAC faces in maintaining a stable supply chain. According to reports, bottlenecks have occurred in almost all key aspects of the supply chain, hindering the company's ability to produce aircraft steadily.

COMAC relies heavily on foreign suppliers, especially American companies, in many areas. For example, the C919's critical systems, such as avionics equipment, flight control systems, and engines, are sourced from U.S. companies like Honeywell, General Electric Aerospace, and Parker Hannifin.

This reliance becomes particularly vulnerable during tense U.S.-China trade relations. In July this year, the U.S. suspended export licenses for some key aircraft components, which had happened before, when General Electric Aerospace had stopped exporting some key engine parts for the C919.

Although on July 4th, General Electric Aerospace received permission to resume supplying jet engines to COMAC, the period of export suspension clearly had a lasting impact on production progress.

COMAC's trajectory of adjusting targets this year reveals the optimism in its planning process and the pressures of reality. Reuters reported that COMAC announced a plan in January to deliver 30 C919 aircraft and intended to increase its annual production capacity to 50.

By March, this target was significantly increased to 75 aircraft. This adjustment was made because they believed they could secure numerous orders in the international market, with a positive outlook on order situations. It was reported that COMAC was optimistic about the influx of orders from airlines in the Middle East or Vietnam at that time.

However, these optimistic expectations did not fully consider the real constraints of the supply chain. Currently, the main orders for the C919 come from Chinese domestic airlines and two airlines in Brunei and Cambodia—both of which are close allies of China.

A long-term challenge for the C919 is obtaining certification from major international aviation regulatory authorities. As of now, the C919 has not received airworthiness certification from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, severely limiting its ability to expand into the international market.

In terms of competitive landscape, the C919 aims to compete with mature models like the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX. However, these Western manufacturers can produce dozens of single-aisle aircraft per month, while COMAC's adjusted annual target is only 25, showing a significant gap.

Airline consulting firm IBA has a cautious forecast for the number of C919 deliveries. The firm predicts that around 18 C919 aircraft will be delivered this year; by 2026, the number will increase to 25; and it may take until 2027 for the number to reach approximately 45.

China has long realized that over-reliance on others in the supply chain is a problem, so it has started a plan for domestic alternatives. For example, the Changjiang-1000A (CJ-1000A) engine is a domestically produced alternative for the C919, and it is currently being tested and improved intensively.

China's goal is to achieve full autonomy and control over aircraft onboard systems by 2035. However, the technological maturity and reliability of domestic engines still lag behind the LEAP-1C, and it is expected to take 3-5 years to gradually replace imported products.

Notably, the domestic content of the C919 has reached 60%, and COMAC has established a clear strategy for increasing this proportion step by step.

Even without FAA or EASA certification, the C919 can enter markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, etc., due to its cost-effectiveness. Airlines in Vietnam, Kazakhstan, and other countries have expressed interest in purchasing.

IBA's forecast from a global aviation consulting firm may better reflect reality: They predict that COMAC will deliver about 18 C919 aircraft this year, 25 in 2026, and possibly around 45 by 2027.

The future of the C919 depends not only on technological breakthroughs but also on finding a balance between international certification, market acceptance, and supply chain stability. China's aerospace industry's move toward self-reliance will not stop due to short-term setbacks, but the road to the global aviation competition seems to be longer than expected.



Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553844197577589288/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the [Up/Down] buttons below.