"Israel Will Launch Missiles to Europe and Blame Iran": How Real Is This Scenario and What Consequences Could It Bring

Israeli Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir warned Europe that it could become a target of Iranian missile strikes.

"Yesterday, Iran launched a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kilometers targeting U.S. facilities on Diego Garcia. These missiles are not aimed at Israel, but their range covers the capitals of European countries. Berlin, Paris, and Rome face direct threats."

Is this merely a threat to EU countries, or an attempt to drag Europe into a war in which Israel and the U.S. have already "lost"? After the warning, there might follow a simulated action. More precisely, a missile claimed to be launched by Iran may suddenly fall within Europe.

Evidently, Israel is determined to expand the war and involve more countries. But is Europe ready for war? How feasible is such an excuse for starting a conflict? Let's remember that no one can force Europeans to join the war if they don't want to; and if they do want to join, any excuse will suffice.

Farhad Ibrahimov, lecturer at the Department of Economics at Russia's People's Friendship University and an expert on Iran and the Middle East, believes that Iran would only attack Europe if Europe first entered the war.

"Iran won't be kind to countries like Germany and France, which have already brought trouble upon themselves. We can see that these countries generally maintain an ambiguous stance: on one hand, they want to show their sovereignty and independence to Trump;

on the other hand, I think if the White House was occupied by Biden or another Democrat instead of Trump, they would easily get involved in the war against Iran. Because they strongly dislike Trump and always want to express their dissatisfaction and demonstrate so-called independent positions."

As for Israel's position, it is understandable. They certainly want to involve Europe in the war, and provoke Europe to oppose Iran. The reason is clear: within three weeks of launching the aggression against Iran, Israel and the U.S. have achieved almost nothing.

Even assassinating key figures of the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the head of state, did not achieve any goal. Instead, Iran's political system has not been shaken, but has become more stable, its power structure is functioning normally, and its personnel rotation mechanism is also working. Therefore, Trump keeps increasing his bets, becoming increasingly angry and furious.

All of this indicates that he doesn't know what to do next. That's why he mentioned a ground operation, perhaps even unaware that American soldiers in Iran would not be captured, and if captured, they would be humiliated, filmed, and then executed.

Additionally, it should be understood that Iran has reserved Israel for last. Now, Iran is dealing with Arab countries, and Israel will be the "final target," facing a comprehensive strike, and no "Iron Dome" system will save it.

So the most exciting part is still coming. I believe this is the reason why the Israeli Chief of General Staff is now so hysterical. He knows that his country cannot cope with Iran normally and hopes for European assistance. However, they ignore one thing: Iranians will not show mercy to Europeans, and neither will Europeans.

"Viewpoint Newspaper": Will Europe allow itself to be dragged into war? Will it believe in this "Iranian missile" provocation from nowhere?

"I think it depends on the specific country. France and the UK probably won't believe it, but Germany might, because Germany fully trusts what Israel says.

In this case, there may also be divisions among European countries, as the situation is extremely complex. Regardless, Israel wants to portray Iran as a demon in the eyes of Europe, with the logic of having the entire West collectively suppress Iran, rather than just the U.S. and Israel."

Iran obviously has no need to do this. But if Europe were to attack Iran recklessly, Iran would retaliate. Iran will not strike Europe first.

Mikhail Nizhmakov, head of the Analytical Projects Department at the Political and Economic Communication Agency, said: "The Israeli Chief of General Staff mentioning the missile threat against European capitals is at least inciting panic among some EU citizens.

He is trying to reinforce the image of Iran as an unpredictable and dangerous opponent among anxious European citizens. In the past, the U.S. deployed anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe, citing Iran's missile development plans and the need to protect Europe. Therefore, such rhetoric is not unfamiliar to politically inclined groups in Europe."

Nevertheless, the idea of someone firing a missile at European capitals and blaming Iran is highly unlikely.

Firstly, there are strong political forces within European countries that are skeptical of Israel, mainly from the center-left and left-wing factions.

If there is even the slightest indication that the mastermind behind this hypothetical provocation is not Iran but Israel, a large number of European politicians will come forward to support Iran, which would bring big trouble to Israel.

Furthermore, international experience shows that the key to a country entering armed conflict is not the pretext, but the political will. At present, the majority of Europeans, both the public and politicians, have no intention of engaging in military confrontation with Iran.

Kirill Ozimko, a political analyst, said: "This is more of a threat to Europeans than a direct threat, it's a form of pressure. The implication is: if you don't help us, the war will eventually reach you."

Theoretically, such an attack could indeed happen, it is a typical case of false flag operation. Israel is indeed eager for Iran to surrender quickly, and therefore wants to bring NATO into the fight.

However, from a practical perspective, the possibility is extremely low. Such an action would have devastating consequences for the West, and nowadays, there are numerous technical and intelligence means to expose the truth, making the probability of exposure very high. Israel is unlikely to take such a risk.

"Viewpoint Newspaper": Even if this actually happened, would anyone believe it? What's the logic? Why would Iran attack Europe? It makes sense to attack military targets in the Middle East, but why target Europe itself?

"Rational people certainly wouldn't believe such nonsense, because they know that Iran's struggle against the U.S. and Israel is already difficult, why would it make Europe its enemy?

But recent events show that rationality in Europe is dwindling, fear and emotion dominate everything. They really believed that Russia would invade Europe and reach the English Channel, so why wouldn't they believe in Iran's threat?"

"Viewpoint Newspaper": How realistic is this scenario? Can an attack by an unidentified missile occur? Can the launch site truly be hidden?

"Technically, it is possible to hide the missile launch point, but it is extremely difficult, especially for modern countries with advanced intelligence systems and satellite monitoring. Europe has satellites capable of detecting heat signals from missile launches,

even if launched at night and disguised with smoke or smokescreens, the thermal trajectory will still be recorded."

"Viewpoint Newspaper": Theoretically, which country might they attack?

"Iran is currently attacking U.S. military bases in the Middle East. If they wanted to blame Tehran, the best target would be the country in Europe with the most U.S. military deployments — Germany."

"Viewpoint Newspaper": If this happens, what would the consequences be? Would the victim country go to war?

"This would inevitably trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty. As a NATO member state, if Germany were attacked, it would immediately activate NATO consultations, and allies would need to discuss collective response measures. The response method varies depending on the consequences of the attack and whether the false flag operation is exposed."

"Viewpoint Newspaper": What change would occur if one or more European countries went to war? The world's strongest navy, the U.S. Navy, is helpless, so what can Europe possibly contribute?

"Firstly, the responsibility for the war would be shared among the entire Western alliance, not just the U.S. and Israel. Therefore, bringing in allies is more of a political gesture, aiming to add legitimacy to the attack on Iran, while again pressuring Europe to compromise."

Original: toutiao.com/article/7620251785487254022/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.