【By Observer Net, Zhang Jingjuan】While the world's attention is focused on the struggle for dominance in the field of artificial intelligence, another quantum technology competition may have a more profound impact on the balance of geopolitical power.
According to Bloomberg, although the United States currently leads, China is rapidly closing the gap. The latest analysis predicts that China may surpass the United States as early as 2027.
Quantum technology is based on the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics, using characteristics such as quantum superposition, quantum entanglement, and quantum no-cloning to achieve quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum measurement. As mathematician Hannah Fry vividly put it: traditional computers solve maze problems by trying each path one by one, while quantum computers can explore all possibilities at the same time. It has the potential to change multiple industries from medicine, finance to artificial intelligence. McKinsey estimates that by 2035, the market size created by quantum technology could reach up to $97 billion.
The report states that despite its great potential, quantum computing is still largely limited to laboratories or theoretical research. Scientists are still studying how to make systems more reliable and scalable. It has not yet reached the moment like ChatGPT, which brought AI into the global public eye, but this moment will come soon. It is worth noting that quantum computing poses a threat to existing encryption systems, potentially opening up a key new battlefield in global tech competition.
The report points out that preliminary insights into who might ultimately win can be seen from patent data. The surge in Chinese patent applications indicates that China's efforts to become a global leader are beginning to bear fruit. LexisNexis, a global information and analysis provider under Reed Elsevier Group, recently analyzed the strength of quantum computing patent portfolios in China and the United States, predicting that China may surpass the United States as early as 2027.
Marco Richter, Director of Intellectual Property Analysis and Strategy at LexisNexis, said that studying tamper-proof patent data is key to predicting future trends.
"The technological changes we saw in electric vehicle patents years ago have become a reality," he added, applying the same logic to the current development dynamics in the field of quantum computing, "we can foresee that in the coming years, Chinese institutions will play a very important role in these technologies."
At the 6th China International Import Expo, visitors watched the programmable quantum computer system "Zhu Zhongzhi" model in the China Pavilion. IC Photo
Bloomberg reports that this analysis not only counts the number of patents, but also evaluates the global influence, relevance, and importance of patents by examining other factors such as the frequency with which patents are cited in new research. A key conclusion is that the old narrative of competition among American giants such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft has become outdated. China is not only catching up, but also nurturing new leading companies.
As early as during the "13th Five-Year Plan" (2016-2020), China proposed strategic goals for developing quantum computing and quantum communication, and in 2021, quantum technology was included in the seven "frontier areas of scientific and technological breakthroughs" in the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025).
This strategic layout has been transformed into practical results. Not long ago, in a laboratory at the University of Science and Technology of China, China's latest generation of photonic quantum computer - Jiuzhang No. 4 was born. It achieved control over 3050 photons, and in specific problems, the computing speed of traditional computers has already been far behind.
Facing China's rapid development in the field of quantum technology, the United States has also made arrangements. In 2018, the United States passed the National Quantum Initiative Act to accelerate the development of quantum technology. In May 2023, the Biden administration of the United States issued the "National Standardization Strategy for Important and Emerging Technologies", positioning quantum technology as a strategic area. In December 2024, the U.S. Senate revised and released the "National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act", further increasing support.
From the perspective of financial investment, China shows a clear advantage. According to a report by global consulting giant McKinsey in 2022, China's public funding for quantum technology leads the world by a large margin, reaching as high as $15.3 billion - eight times the U.S. government's investment ($1.9 billion) and twice the total investment of all EU member states ($7.2 billion).
The report states that the United States' leadership in this field is now in jeopardy. Earlier this year, Microsoft President Brad Smith warned that "we cannot rule out the possibility of strategic surprises, nor can we rule out the possibility that China may have already matched the United States." He urged the United States and its allies to develop a coordinated national strategy and increase investment.
Bloomberg believes that this sense of urgency is justified. The Trump administration has been cutting investments in the sciences and increasing the difficulty of entry and residency for foreign students and researchers. If the U.S. government wants to maintain competitiveness, it must rebuild its talent training system in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, and welcome international professionals. Although the United States has an advantage in private investment, it is unclear whether this is sufficient to support the basic research needed during the process of technological maturity.
Currently, Chinese enterprises are increasingly enhancing their global competitiveness and have won many research collaborations in Europe and other parts of the world. As China's momentum continues to accelerate, the window of opportunity for the United States to take action is rapidly shrinking.
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