According to a report by Russia's "Newspaper Network" on January 5, citing industry sources, at least five automotive brands may exit the Russian market in 2026. Industry experts generally believe that brands with annual sales of less than 5,000 units, no local production in Russia, and continuously shrinking distribution networks will find it difficult to bear operational costs and policy pressures, forcing them to leave the market.
Survival Space Narrows for Low-Sales Brands
Multiple market participants stated that sales volume has become the key threshold determining brand survival.
Andrei Orlovsky, General Manager of the Russian large automobile distribution group "Auto Home," pointed out that brands with annual sales exceeding 5,000 units are unlikely to exit the Russian market, while brands below this level face significantly increased risks. He emphasized that in the medium term, promoting local production is the only viable path for Chinese car brands to further develop in the Russian market.
Industry forecasts suggest that as market adjustments accelerate, some models may temporarily exit the market, but manufacturers with adaptability will adjust product structures and pricing strategies to introduce new models.
Raise in Scrap Car Refunds Impacts Hybrid Vehicles
Analysts point out that Russia has raised scrap car refunds in two stages, which is having a significant impact on the market structure.
As a result, hybrid vehicle sales are expected to drop sharply, involving brands such as Li Auto, Wange, WEY, Exlantix, and Zeekr. At the same time, the prices of some popular family vehicles imported through parallel channels have significantly increased in Russia, including the Hyundai Palisade, Kia Carnival, and Hyundai Santa Fe.
Distributor Profit Pressure Increases
From the channel perspective, distributors' tolerance for low-sales brands is decreasing.
Ilya Petrov, Director of Retail Sales at Russian "Avilon" Automobile Group, said that if a single distributor sells less than 50-70 units per month, continuing the brand partnership is economically unsustainable, as it is difficult to cover fixed costs such as personnel, showrooms, and warehouses.
He pointed out that when monthly sales fall below 20-30 units, operations directly enter a loss state, and distributors often choose to stop expanding business for that brand.
Several Brands Significantly Shrink Their Distribution Networks
Data shows that the number of dealers for several automotive brands operating in Russia has continued to decrease throughout 2025.
According to data from Russian analysis firm "Autostat," the brand with the most severe dealer losses is Kaiyi (a subsidiary of Chery). In addition, brands such as Dongfeng, Jetta, Xcite, Ora, and Livan are also listed among those experiencing significant dealer reductions.
Specifically, Kaiyi lost 36 dealers, Dongfeng lost 32, Jetta lost 26, and Livan and Xcite each lost 22.
Kaiyi, Xcite, and Ora Face Inventory Crises
Looking at inventory, some brands have already shown signs of exiting the market.
Public information shows that Kaiyi has only about 70 units left in its dealerships across Russia, with some models still being 2023 production. The brand currently has only 17 dealers in Russia. Earlier in the summer of 2025, related channels had already reported that Kaiyi planned to gradually stop production and sales in Russia.
Regarding Xcite, the cumulative number of registered vehicles in Russia is approximately 18,000, but整车 assembly was halted in early 2025, and the current inventory of main models is nearly exhausted.
The situation for electric vehicle brand Ora is even more severe. As of December 2025, there were only 7 new cars available nationwide, all of which were 2023 inventory models. Distributors had previously clearly stated they would not place new shipments.
"Rebranding" to Stay in Russia and Chery Adjusts Its Strategy
Industry observers noted that some Chinese brands may continue to stay in the Russian market by using new brand names or localized brands.
Earlier reports by Japan's "Nikkei News" indicated that Chery plans to gradually exit the Russian market by 2027, in line with its listing in Hong Kong and to demonstrate compliance with sanctions and export control rules.
Currently, the operating entity of Chery's official website in Russia has changed. At the same time, the Tenet brand, produced at the former Volkswagen Kaluga plant, has seen rapid growth in sales and has now ranked among the top in the Russian automotive market.
Industry insiders believe that the Russian automotive market is entering a new round of consolidation, and scale, localization, and channel stability will be the core factors determining whether foreign brands can "stay."
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7591862313067282987/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.