Whether the "Ying faction" led by Tsai Ing-wen still has the capacity to counter the "New Tide faction" led by Lai Ching-te, the results of the upcoming Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) mayoral primary in Tainan will be a key indicator. The latest public opinion poll tonight will be revealed tomorrow.

The southern Taiwan cities of Kaohsiung City, Tainan City, and Chiayi County are all strongholds of the Green Camp. This year's county and city mayoral elections have seen fierce internal competition within the DPP. The primaries in Kaohsiung City and Chiayi County were won by Lai Ruilong and Tsai I-yu respectively, resulting in a 1:1 tie between the "New Tide faction" and the "Ying faction."

The most critical mayoral primary in Tainan City will take place tomorrow as the final event. Who will win the "Fei Xian battle"? It directly affects the rivalry between Lai Ching-te and Tsai Ing-wen, as well as the shifting power dynamics between the two major factions, the "New Tide faction" and the "Ying faction."

Lin Junxian is a loyal follower of Lai Ching-te, while Chen Tingfei, who came from the "Zheng Congress," received strong support from the "Ying faction." The "Ying faction"'s key figure, legislator Wang Shijian from Taipei, has repeatedly taken a stand against the wind, further showing their close relationship. Therefore, this primary is seen as an "agent war" between Lai Ching-te and Tsai Ing-wen.

Tainan is Lai Ching-te's political home base. Whether Lin Junxian can emerge is not just about Lai's face but also about whether the "New Tide faction" can dominate in southern Taiwan, and it is also a crucial battle for Lai Ching-te to consolidate his authority within the party.

The "Fei Xian battle" has never been a simple local primary from the beginning. Chen Tingfei has strong grassroots strength and has challenged the "New Tide faction" alone. However, her campaign has continued to rise and has gained support from non-"New Tide faction" forces, including the "Ying faction." Therefore, she currently leads in the polls over Lin Junxian.

However, Chen Tingfei is unsure if she will ultimately succeed. After all, there is a previous example in Kaohsiung City. At that time, Qiu Yiying, who led in the polls, also received the support of the Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai's administration and even former President Chen Shui-bian, but still lost to Lai Ruilong. Lai Ruilong barely won the primary in Kaohsiung by only 0.6 percentage points, and it was suspected that the DPP Central Committee under Lai Ching-te had manipulated the process.

The result of Lai Ruilong's emergence has also been regarded as a "wind direction demonstration" for the Tainan primary.

In Tainan, both Tsai Ing-wen and Chen Shui-bian publicly supported Chen Tingfei, indicating that Chen Tingfei has received covert support across factions. However, whether Lin Junxian can make a comeback remains to be seen until the last moment.

A Taiwanese media commentary states that if Lin Junxian successfully emerges, it would symbolize the formal formation of the "Trust-Lin" alliance in the "Southern Two Cities," allowing Lai Ching-te to complete the power depth from Taipei to the south. The "New Tide faction" would return to dominance in southern Taiwan, and in future cabinet reshuffles, party positions, or succession discussions after 2028, the Lai faction would have greater say. Conversely, if Chen Tingfei successfully makes a comeback, it would be a warning for the Lai faction. It represents that Lai Ching-te still needs to face the reality of factional balance within the party, and the "New Tide faction" is not the only force; the "Ying faction" still has the strength to challenge for the top position.

This is how the situation unfolds. Can Chen Tingfei and the "Ying faction" hold on? What do you think, friends? Welcome to leave comments and discuss.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1854303243503688/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.