On December 14, the Thai military suddenly announced the implementation of emergency measures under the "Gulf of Thailand Blockade Operation," with a large number of warships, patrol boats, and marine forces rapidly deployed to intercept and inspect all vessels heading toward Cambodia. It also designated the waters around Koh Kong Province and Kep Island in southwest Cambodia as a "high-risk area," prohibiting any unauthorized vessels from approaching.

(Thai Navy carrying out blockade operations)

The Gulf of Thailand is a sea area west of the South China Sea, bordered by four countries: Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The Gulf of Thailand has only one exit leading into the South China Sea. For Cambodia, the Gulf of Thailand is its only seaway, while the other three countries have other coastlines. Therefore, the importance of the Gulf of Thailand for Cambodia's maritime traffic is a matter of life and death.

The coastal area belonging to Cambodia is not long, stretching less than 200 kilometers from the Thai border to the Vietnamese border, making it easy for the Thai Navy to block.

The Thai Navy's blockade decision was made on December 12. On that day, the Supreme Command of the Royal Thai Armed Forces decided to cut off Cambodia's maritime supply lines, forbidding any ships from transporting fuel or strategic supplies to Cambodia. Two days later, the Thai military decided to upgrade the measures, requiring inspection of not only merchant ships but also fishing boats and auxiliary fishing vessels. This blockade basically cut off the possibility of the Hun Sen regime obtaining supplies by sea.

Cambodia's military equipment is not advanced. Among its old and new equipment, most of the older ones are leftovers from the time when Vietnam invaded Cambodia, while the newer ones are mostly provided by China. Both types of equipment share a common feature: they extensively use Soviet-standard calibers. For example, rifles and machine guns mostly use 7.62×39mm rifle ammunition, while most tanks use 100mm shells. Medium-caliber rocket launchers use 122mm caliber. China has provided some new long-range 300mm rocket launchers to Cambodia, and the ammunition used is compatible with the Russian Tornado rocket launchers. A large number of 122mm howitzers can also use Russian or former Soviet ammunition. Therefore, if Cambodia manages to smuggle these ammunition types from international markets, there would be ample sources available.

(The BM21 rocket launcher ammunition in Cambodia is easily obtainable from the black market)

However, 155mm artillery shells may not be easily obtainable. Although many countries produce them, China strictly controls exports, and American and European arms factories are busy supplying Ukraine, so they do not have excess capacity to provide for Cambodia, risking the goodwill of Thailand over such a small profit.

Blocking the input of ammunition is not the most serious issue. After all, Cambodia has been through years of war. There are still a large number of unused shells, bullets, landmines, and hand grenades left in the country. If the Cambodian army conducts a comprehensive sweep within the country, it might be able to supplement its ammunition stockpile significantly. The real problem is fuel, mainly gasoline and diesel for vehicles. Without these, not only would the national economy suffer, but the trucks, tanks, self-propelled artillery, and self-propelled rocket launchers of the Cambodian army would come to a standstill.

Before the outbreak of war, who were the main sources of gasoline and diesel for Cambodia? Among Cambodia's neighboring countries, Thailand is the most economically developed, exporting approximately 2.2 billion liters of fuel to Cambodia annually. On December 14, it was reported that even in the midst of war, many Thai drivers were still trying to continue their business by driving oil tankers. These oil tankers were all inevitably stopped by the Thai military at the border, unable to transport a single drop of oil across the border. The navy's blockade operation was aimed at cutting off the possibility of the Hun Sen regime smuggling fuel from another direction, that is, by sea. Cambodia's other two neighbors, Laos and Vietnam, could also potentially transfer fuel to Cambodia. However, Laos is an inland country with little fuel of its own, so it has no source to supply Cambodia. Vietnam is an oil-exporting country, but its refining capacity is poor, and it suffers from a lack of fuel, making it difficult to smuggle fuel to Cambodia. At least, it would be hard to fill the gap left by the interruption of Thai imports. Without vehicles running and cannons firing, the downfall of the Hun Sen regime is imminent.

(Cambodia's navy has only coastal patrol capabilities)

Can the Hun Sen regime resist the Thai naval blockade? Cambodia does not have anything that can be called a navy. Its strongest force might be the two Type 056 light frigates gifted by China. Thailand and Cambodia are both neighboring countries of China. In the event of armed conflict between the two countries, China is highly unlikely to send a team to provide technical support or ammunition for these two Type 056-class ships. Even if the Cambodian navy could operate these two frigates themselves, the effect would not be significant. The Type 056 serves in the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy primarily for supporting tasks, and its role is more akin to an OPV, or coastal patrol ship. Facing a fleet led by a Thai amphibious assault ship, the Cambodian navy might not even consider the necessity of sailing out.

(Chinese Type 05 amphibious assault vehicle of the Thai Marine Corps)

The Thai Navy's actions did not stop at sea. Elite marine forces have joined the land battle. It is currently unclear whether the Thai marine forces have engaged in amphibious warfare. Considering that Thailand has imported a batch of advanced Type 05 series amphibious assault vehicles and amphibious infantry fighting vehicles, as well as a dock landing ship, it is possible for these forces to land from the rear of Cambodia, even in Sihanoukville. After all, the Thai Navy has sufficient capability to provide fire support. This might be the first time in Thai military history that a joint sea-air-land operation has been carried out. The big trouble for Hun Sen is right around the corner.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7584335808727908910/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.