By Sanxuan

The first speech of Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba has once again caused international oil prices to fluctuate.

Mojtaba stated that Iran will continue to use the Strait of Hormuz to pressure its enemies, and the US and Israel will pay a price for their actions. Iran will take revenge for every victim.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba

Currently, the confrontation between Iran and the US-Israel has reached a stalemate, mainly because both sides have consumed a lot of ammunition and can no longer maintain the intensity of the early stage of the war. Therefore, making good use of the Strait of Hormuz is indeed necessary, as it allows Iran to force the US and Israel to make concessions with minimal cost, especially the United States.

The US itself does not lack oil, but its domestic oil prices follow international prices. If oil prices rise continuously, the living costs of American citizens will also increase, which is a major issue concerning people's livelihoods in the midterm elections. It is unacceptable for Trump to remain indifferent.

Seeing that there are no signs of a ceasefire from Iran, the US government can only take measures to ease the pressure of rising oil prices, such as "greenlighting" Russian oil that has been sanctioned.

On Thursday, the Trump administration issued an executive order allowing Russian oil stranded at sea to be sold to other countries, with a duration of 30 days. The reason given was that an increase in the supply of oil on the market would naturally lead to a drop in oil prices.

Love and hate

US Treasury Secretary Bassett explained that releasing Russian oil would increase several hundred million barrels of supply, which could help curb the rise in oil prices to some extent.

Data shows that currently, 124 million barrels of Russian crude oil are stranded at sea, equivalent to 5-6 days of global supply. Previously, due to US-EU sanctions, a large amount of Russian oil was forced to remain at sea and could not be exported.

To demonstrate a firm stance, Bassett specifically emphasized that the US government is not providing war funds for Putin's government in a disguised way, as it only targets oil stranded at sea, not oil that has not been extracted yet. And the extraction tax is the main source of energy revenue.

This strange explanation obviously failed to convince the outside world, even Bassett himself felt uncomfortable. Not long after, he admitted on a program that Russia might indeed make a small profit, but the period is only 30 days, and the US will not let them be happy for too long.

US Treasury Secretary Bassett

American think tank experts bluntly pointed out that this order has instantly nullified the US government's previous efforts to sanction Russia, and Putin must be very pleased now.

Moreover, releasing Russian oil does not have a substantial impact on easing oil prices, as the price of Russian oil also follows international oil prices. The higher the oil price, the more Russia earns. Perhaps the Trump administration may even extend the release period later.

The worst off is Europe. They had already decided to abandon Russian energy, but reality clearly does not allow it, and they have to buy Russian oil and gas at higher prices than before, and it may not even be available.

Putin said that there are many potential buyers now, and some offer higher prices than Europe. Oil companies will obviously choose to make money however possible.

Frans Timmermans opposes easing sanctions against Russia

Previously, the US and EU were fighting together, sharing the spoils, and the EU could still get some benefits. Now, the US is fighting, but the EU is paying the bill. It is understandable how upset the EU feels.

However, even now, the EU is unwilling to lower its stance. Timmermans stated that it is not yet time to loosen the sanctions on Russia. Once Russian oil and gas are released, it is equivalent to funding Russia's war against Ukraine, and in the future, the EU will have less confidence when dealing with Russia.

If that's the case, the EU will continue to bear the high oil prices. This is their own choice.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7616679831547249162/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.