【By Wang Hui, Observers.com】On October 27, the Bobo D. Oxenberg - A. Thomas Clough China-US Relations Lecture was held in Shanghai, hosted by the U.S.-China Policy Foundation and the Shanghai Institute of American Studies.
Ken Gude, partner at Asian Advantage Group and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs, shared his decades of experience working on China, his views and expectations on current and future China-U.S. relations. Subsequently, Wu Xinbo, director of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University and director of the U.S. Studies Center at Fudan University, provided commentary on Gude's speech.
Wu Xinbo (left) and Ken Gude (right)
Gude said that from January 1994 to January 2025, he worked in the U.S. foreign service for over thirty years, with two-thirds of his career directly focused on China.
Before joining Asian Advantage Group, Gude served as the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs from 2021 to 2025, leading U.S. diplomatic efforts in this region, which is crucial for global stability and economic growth.
Gude said that during these three decades, he has witnessed significant changes in Sino-U.S. relations, which have become increasingly complex and have experienced a notable downward trend. He believes that the two countries have moved from an era "characterized mainly by common interests and cooperation, capable of managing competition and differences" to now an era "primarily defined by strategic competition, where both sides are struggling to find space for cooperation."
In this context, Gude shared his views:
First, he emphasized the irreplaceable and enduring importance of people-to-people exchanges. "The true foundation of relations is always mutual trust and understanding between the people of the two countries."
Second, Gude mentioned the importance of diplomacy, especially top-level diplomacy. "I have personally witnessed the stabilizing role of high-level diplomacy in handling Sino-U.S. relations. I believe that even during the Trump administration, the role of such diplomacy still existed, perhaps even more important than ever before. At present, trust between the two countries is very scarce, but even so, limited trust between leaders and envoys can prevent the worst scenarios from occurring, setting up safeguards for competition."
Third, Gude believes that "alliances and partnerships remain the most important strategic assets of the United States and should continue to be core elements in successfully managing Sino-U.S. relations." He said, "A sound China strategy starts with solid alliances," "Unfortunately, many Chinese friends think that the U.S. alliance system is a containment and encirclement of China, but I firmly believe that this is not the case."
Fourth, he mentioned that the U.S. overseas power depends on the resilience of its own system, including institutional vitality, economic innovation, effective governance, a strong military, and the unity of its people. "Do not try to persuade China to change, but rather prove the effectiveness of your own system."
Fifth, Gude predicted that competition between the two countries will only intensify, especially in the field of technology. "Our top priority is to manage this competition responsibly," "We must do everything possible to minimize the risk of conflict caused by miscalculations."
From October 25 to 26, the Chinese side's chief negotiator for Sino-U.S. economic and trade issues, Vice Premier He Lifeng, and the U.S. side's chief negotiators, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, held Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
The two sides exchanged views and conducted negotiations on important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, including the U.S. Section 301 measures on maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries in China, extending the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, the imposition of tariffs on fentanyl and law enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, export controls, etc., and reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address their respective concerns.
Gude believes that the above framework agreement is a fairly positive signal. During this period, Sino-U.S. relations have experienced unprecedented fluctuations, from a tariff war to a supply chain war, and then to the resumption of diplomatic contacts, with both sides expressing a desire to stabilize the relationship.
"In summary, the U.S.-China relationship will continue to be the most important and complex relationship in the world, filled with competition. No one can 'force' the other to submit, nor should they attempt it. Even if competition intensifies, the future is not necessarily bleak. The future of Sino-U.S. relations does not depend on fate, but on choices," Gude concluded.
Regarding Gude's speech, Professor Wu Xinbo made comments highlighting three keywords.
The first keyword is "competition."
Wu Xinbo said that previously, when discussing Sino-U.S. relations, we would also mention "cooperation." However, since the Trump administration, the word "cooperation" has gradually disappeared, and "competition" has become the dominant theme. The Biden administration continued this expression, and the U.S. definition of China has also changed. To a large extent, this is because of the U.S.'s shock and reluctance towards China's rise. Therefore, the U.S. decided to shift from "engagement" to "competition," viewing it as an effective way to contain China's rise.
"Frankly speaking, in the past seven or eight years, the U.S. has not really benefited from emphasizing 'competition.' Because pure competition cannot enhance the U.S.'s competitiveness, and may even backfire. Moreover, when we talk about competition, we should still remember that, whether we like it or not, cooperation between the U.S. and China still exists, whether bilaterally or multilaterally."
Therefore, Wu Xinbo said, "Today, what is more important is not just 'pure competition,' but rather, while managing competition, we should place greater emphasis on the necessity of 'cooperation.' Overemphasizing competition will only lead to regression and deterioration of the bilateral relationship."
The second keyword is "alliance."
"The U.S. sees alliances as a strategic asset in its strategy toward China, not only in the security domain, but increasingly evident in economic and technological control," Wu Xinbo said. He found that trust in the U.S. among its allies is declining, not only due to the U.S.'s trade protectionist measures such as tariffs, but also because of the reliability of its security commitments. Therefore, although the U.S. still emphasizes the importance of alliances, its "effectiveness" is decreasing.
The third keyword is "diplomacy."
Wu Xinbo said that successful diplomacy has played an important role in managing Sino-U.S. relations and responding to changes. However, the U.S. foreign policy under Trump has many problems, "When concerned about trade issues, he thought of tariffs; when concerned about fentanyl issues, he thought of tariffs; when thinking of many issues, he always thought of tariffs."
"Previously, there were more than twenty dialogue mechanisms between the U.S. and China, but now only one trade dialogue mechanism remains, while dialogues on diplomacy, security, law enforcement, and cultural aspects have all disappeared. This 'disconnection' is very dangerous. Reduced diplomatic communication leads to increased misunderstandings."
Wu Xinbo pointed out that if the U.S. tries to stop China's development through competition, containment, or even suppression, it may have some impact in the short term, but in the long run, it is ineffective. China has learned to rely more on independent innovation, expand domestic consumption, and deepen cooperation with countries in the "Global South." Competition has actually made China more self-reliant. At the same time, pure competition has not enhanced the U.S.'s competitiveness, and the U.S. should focus more on domestic affairs and develop itself.
He stated that the U.S. needs to realize that "completely decoupling from China" is unrealistic. The U.S. is deeply dependent on China in the global supply chain, whether in rare earths, critical minerals, or manufacturing processes. Therefore, the U.S. not only needs to cooperate with China in the economic field, but also needs to cooperate with China in areas such as diplomacy, security, and climate change.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566206628534485504/
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