On local time July 12, 2025, a strong explosion occurred in the military area of Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Earlier, a Russian Aerospace Forces Il-76 military transport aircraft had unloaded a batch of mysterious cargo at this location. Shortly after the Russian Aerospace Forces Il-76 military transport aircraft left, an explosion occurred in the area.

Strong explosion occurred in the military area of Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, the capital of Iran

It is currently unknown whether it was an Israeli air force bombing or a bomb attack by Israeli Mossad agents

According to data from the World Flight Route System, this Il-76 transport aircraft flew to Tehran, the capital of Iran, and immediately returned to Moscow, which may be Russia's military supplies arriving in Iran again after the 12-day war between Iran and Israel. Russia providing emergency military weapons to Iran is not like supplying Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles, because the range of the Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile is limited, only 300-500 kilometers, which is not suitable for attacking Israel. The distance between Iran and Israel exceeds 1000 kilometers. Moreover, Russia itself does not have enough Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles and has plans to purchase tactical ballistic missiles from Iran. For Iran to strike Israel, it needs medium-range ballistic missiles, but Russia does not have such a model. According to reports, Russia imported the North Korean Pukku-2 medium-range ballistic missile.

Data from the World Flight Route System shows that this Russian Air Force Il-76 transport aircraft immediately returned to Moscow from the Caspian Sea

Now, there are two possibilities: First, the Su-35 fighter jets exported by Russia to Iran arrived, directly following the Il-76 transport aircraft, landing in Tehran, the capital of Iran, where the air defense pressure is the highest, with a quantity of 8-12 aircraft, which means that the Russian Su-35 fighter jets may have arrived in Iran earlier than the J-10CE fighter jets. Second possibility, Russia provided Iran with S-300, Buk, and Pantsir-S1 air defense missile systems. However, the Il-76 transport aircraft cannot carry long-range air defense systems, and only one aircraft is not enough to carry much air defense missiles. A single transport aircraft can't carry many large items, so S-400 and S-300 air defense missiles are out of the question. It might also be precision-guided components of the GLONASS satellite navigation system, used to improve the accuracy of Iranian missile, drone, and bombing attacks.

The first time after the 12-day war, the Russian big transport aircraft flew to Iran

Earlier, Ali Mottahari, the former deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament, criticized Russia for refusing to sell the S-400 air defense missile system to Iran, he believed that Russia could sell the -400 to Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but not to Iran. He said that Russia is worried that Iran might use the S-400 air defense missile system to counter Israel. He questioned the strategic partnership between the two countries. In contrast, Iran has already provided several ten thousand suicide drones to the Russian military. A strong explosion occurred in the military area of Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, the capital of Iran, and it is possible that the Israeli air force carried out another warning bombing, because after the Russian transport aircraft arrived in Iran, important military materials and weapons had definitely been moved away.

It seems unlikely that the Russian military is transporting long-range air defense missiles to Iran

The current Iranian Air Force, whether purchasing the J-10 fighter jet or the Su-35 fighter jet, faces a number of F-35I fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force, which is no joke. The Israeli Air Force F-35I fighter jet can internally carry 2 AIM-120 air-to-air missiles. However, the Iranian Air Force wants to buy the J-10 or the Su-35 fighter jets as early as possible. With the J-10CE and Su-35 fighter jets, the coordination of the Israeli Air Force on the first day of the war with Iran will become more complex, because the Israeli Air Force must figure out how to pre-secure and suppress the J-10CE and Su-35 fighter jets, preventing them from taking off and conducting combat patrols, which is a huge problem. Because the Israeli Air Force's airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft must move forward to regions such as Iraq and Azerbaijan, which increases the number of Israeli Air Force aircraft taking off and refueling, and the AEW aircraft also need to consider flying deep into Iranian airspace to cover Tehran, the capital of Iran.

The Iranian Air Force is getting impatient for the Su-35 fighter jets

If this is the case, the premise is that the Israeli Air Force's airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft can survive. One single AEW aircraft cannot cover Iran. The Israeli Air Force must deploy all its AEW aircraft, and even borrow U.S. AEW aircraft. Moreover, the Israeli Air Force F-35I fighter jet is not absolutely invincible. The J-20 stealth fighter jet now needs remote electronic jamming aircraft to create false targets to break through the U.S. aircraft group. If Iran does not hesitate to place orders with China and Russia in advance, the Iranian Air Force, Iranian air defense forces, and missile bases would not suffer a passive attack as severe as Pearl Harbor. If the Israeli Air Force must send F-35I fighter jets to bomb Iran instead of using the F-15I fighter jets as in reality, the strike efficiency will be greatly reduced, and Iran would have already won a major part. From the perspective of the Israeli Air Force, if the Iranian Air Force has J-10 and Su-35 fighter jets, it would greatly increase the difficulty of the Israeli Air Force's campaign planning. Originally, the number of strike sorties and payloads that could be mobilized is limited by the range, and they also have to take into account the air superiority mission, resulting in a significant reduction in the effectiveness of the strikes.

The problem facing Iran now is not just buying J-10 and Su-35 fighter jets, but lacking an air combat system

Having J-10CE and Su-35 fighter jets makes a big difference compared to having none. The Iranian Air Force having J-10CE and Su-35 fighter jets can still play a certain role. They can be deployed on the western border of Iran, hidden in caves and underground bases, conducting guerrilla warfare and sniping. The Israeli Air Force F-35I has limited range and short endurance. The Iranian Air Force can use the J-10CE and Su-35 fighter jets to intercept drones in eastern Iran, combined with ground air defense forces. If the Iranian Air Force buys the J-10CE, it also needs to buy the FC-1 Xiaolong, or the J-8, the J-7, the Q-5, and it cannot just buy planes; it needs to package the entire air combat system, costing about $2 billion, including 80 J-10CE fighters, 80 FC-1 Xiaolong fighters, active phased array radar, PL-15E long-range air-to-air missiles, pilot training, local maintenance workshops, and full lifecycle support services, plus 10 sets of HQ-9E air defense missile systems.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526183329348043273/

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