On January 20th, it marked the first anniversary of President Trump's return to the White House. Over the past year, from the trade war to military strikes, Trump has created "turbulent waves" around the world, which have been described by American media as a "crazy year."
Currently, issues such as Greenland continue to impact the U.S. alliance system and international order. At this critical moment, the U.S. Department of State recently released a new five-year "Strategic Plan," continuing to advocate for an overseas policy centered on "America First," emphasizing the revitalization of domestic industries through "commercial diplomacy." The document also repeatedly mentions binding the economy, technology, and security together to counter China's influence.
Trump's first anniversary in the White House
Creating "turbulent waves" around the globe
According to statistics from American media, in the year since Trump returned to the White House, he has authorized nearly 600 unilateral military strikes against seven countries, including Venezuela, Yemen, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Somalia, and Nigeria, exceeding the total number of such actions during President Biden's four-year term. In addition, from withdrawing from multiple international organizations and agreements to launching a "tariff war" globally, Trump's first year in his second term has caused unprecedented shocks to the U.S. alliance system and the international order since World War II.
Looking at the domestic situation in the United States, Trump has targeted the "deep state" with a goal of cutting federal employees, mass deportation of immigrants, and sending National Guard units into Democratic-led states. These actions have sparked intense controversy within the country, further exacerbating social divisions. American media describes this past year as a "crazy year," with "Trump 2.0" causing "bloodshed" domestically and "turbulent waves" globally. For Trump, it's said that "there is nothing he cannot do."
On January 20th, CNN published the results of a recent survey showing that more than half of American citizens are dissatisfied with Trump's performance in his first year back in the White House. 57% of Americans believe that Trump has "hurt America's standing in the world." His many controversial policies only intensify his own and the country's political difficulties.
American NBC News commentator cited the survey results, stating that in all the most important areas, voters are dissatisfied with Trump's achievements, including immigration policy, which was one of his top selling points during the campaign. Overall, the tone of Trump's second term has been his continuous expansion of personal power and executive authority, exemplified by the tariff war and unauthorized invasion of Venezuela, without congressional authorization.
Political commentator Shi Yang analyzed for Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News that compared to Trump's first term, when people still considered him a president with a strong personality, Trump's second term has almost completely removed traditional constraints, entering a state of abusing power and self-indulgence. This has made it difficult for the international community, including U.S. allies, to use traditional diplomatic knowledge or techniques to respond to or predict what actions the United States might take, instead having to guess Trump's personality and his personal desires, turning international relations into interpersonal relationships. This makes countries that rely heavily on the United States more vulnerable to being manipulated by the U.S., or more specifically, by Trump.
The U.S. Department of State releases its "Five-Year Work Plan"
Emphasizing "commercial diplomacy" as a priority
At present, Trump, who is eyeing Greenland, continues to issue threats to NATO allies. Concerns about the uncertainty of U.S. foreign policy have increased among the international community. At this critical moment, the U.S. Department of State released the updated "Institutional Strategic Plan for Fiscal Years 2026-2030" on its official website this month.
The "Strategic Plan" is a guiding document formulated by the U.S. Department of State, typically spanning five years, used to clarify the main goals and specific implementation paths of U.S. foreign policy during that period. It translates higher-level directives such as the President's national security strategy into a policy framework for the foreign affairs department's specific actions, serving as a sort of "five-year work plan" for the U.S. foreign affairs department. Therefore, the document has become a major indicator of U.S. foreign policy direction, drawing significant attention from the international community and international think tanks.
According to the newly released plan, the U.S. Department of State has identified six key areas of focus for the next five years: maintaining U.S. national sovereignty, the Western Hemisphere and the establishment of "Tang-Ruoism," peace and stability in the so-called "Indo-Pacific" region, rebuilding a civilizational alliance with European countries, maintaining U.S. technological and economic leadership, and targeted foreign aid prioritizing U.S. interests.
Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News reporter found that this plan is consistent with the overall approach and similar in structure to the new "National Security Strategy Report" released by the White House in early December last year. Both continue to center on "America First," emphasizing the focus on the Western Hemisphere and promoting "Tang-Ruoism," while enhancing the U.S.'s technological and economic advantages.
Shi Yang stated that this "Strategic Plan" can be understood as the U.S. Department of State version of Trump's second-term governing declaration. Because the U.S. Department of State, led by Secretary Rubio, produced and issued this document, it shows that Trump wants the U.S. to return to the Western Hemisphere and continue to balance with China in the "Indo-Pacific" region, among other strategic directions, which are again reflected in this document. This answers a previous question from the outside world: Is the U.S. President's national security strategy a personal act of Trump, or a strategic shift of the entire country? Now it seems that this shift is accompanied by the U.S. Department of State and other diplomatic agencies, indicating a national shift.
However, compared to the White House's "Strategic Report," the U.S. Department of State's work plan highlights the importance of commercial interests as one of the core objectives. It mentions that "commercial diplomacy" will be the core strategy to revitalize the U.S. industry and maintain its leading position, by promoting commercial transactions in all bilateral relationships and negotiations to ensure that allies and partners prioritize U.S. companies and solutions in their development, thus establishing a "strong pro-U.S. economic group of countries."
"This, in my view, is still based on Trump's domestic political needs, and it is also a means of great-power competition with 'Trump characteristics,' characterized by something similar to mercantilism from the 19th century. The U.S. wants to use Latin America as a kind of industrial base to support its competition with China. Obviously, such a situation has not appeared before, and whether Trump's proposal will succeed remains to be seen," said Shi Yang.
Refining the strategy of competing with China
Highlighting the complexity of China-related policies
Notably, compared to the White House's "Strategic Report," this foreign ministry work plan has detailed the next phase of strategies for competing with China, with some expressions even more aggressive. In the introduction of the document, it directly states that the U.S. will not avoid competition with China or other geopolitical rivals, and will actively defend its interests in political, security, and economic fields. Previously, the White House's "Strategic Report" drew particular attention because it changed its previous tone and no longer mentioned the phrase "China is the U.S.'s top competitor," which was seen as an important adjustment in the positioning of U.S.-China relations.
This expression by Rubio clearly raised the tone. Analysts believe that this "Strategic Plan," led by Rubio, represents a rejection and correction of Trump's "America First" transactional approach to China, reflecting the complexity of U.S. policy toward China internally.
Additionally, the document links the restoration of U.S. industrial advantages to competition with China, strongly ties the economy, technology, and national security together, and explicitly prohibits U.S. capital and technology from being deeply integrated with China, while reducing reliance on China's key supply chains in the field of trade and economy. This aligns with the trend emphasized in the U.S. Congress's "2026 Defense Authorization Act" issued at the end of last year.
Shi Yang believes that compared to the "National Security Strategy Report," the report focuses more on the security aspect, such as emphasizing the need for U.S. allies and the U.S. military itself to build a so-called "deterrent force" in the "Indo-Pacific" region, while the new "Strategic Plan" emphasizes using technology and trade to compete with China in this area, highlighting the need to reduce dependence on China, seemingly expressing that "the U.S. has done too much for China in the past, which has led to the current confrontation in the fields of industry and technology."
U.S. think tank assessment: Trump 2.0's first year
Efforts to revitalize American manufacturing are limited
It has been noted that "revitalizing American manufacturing" has been a key part of Trump's strategy toward China since his first term. However, the actual results have been very limited. A report by the Brookings Institution on January 16 titled "Assessment of Trump's China Strategy After One Year in Office" pointed out that although the government announced billions of dollars in foreign investment commitments and guided industrial recovery through tariffs and export controls, these measures did not translate into obvious growth in industrial production and employment within the first year. The U.S. manufacturing sector did not show significant recovery, and the relative gap between the U.S. and Chinese manufacturing continued to widen.
In terms of reducing strategic dependence on China, the Trump administration had set ambitious agendas. But taking control of critical minerals like rare earths as an example, the U.S. has not significantly broken its dependency on rare earths in the short term, and remains at a disadvantage in terms of technology and market pricing power. Moreover, establishing alternative supply chains usually takes up to 15 years, making the Trump administration's plan for self-sufficiency within the next two years overly optimistic. The continuity and stability of the policy will also become key obstacles in actual implementation.
Other observers point out that as Trump's various actions undermine the international order, there has been a clear negative trend in the views of global allies toward the U.S., which will directly affect its ability to mobilize partners to achieve strategic goals. Conversely, the global perception of China's economic influence has risen, even gaining strength within American public opinion.
Foreign Ministry: The development of Sino-U.S. relations over the past year once again indicates
Cooperation benefits both; conflict harms both
At the regular press conference on January 20th, Spokesperson Guo Jia Kun stated that the Sino-U.S. relationship has experienced ups and downs over the past year, achieving overall dynamic stability, which is in line with the common interests of the people of both countries and the expectations of the international community. "The course of Sino-U.S. relations over the past year once again demonstrates that cooperation benefits both, while conflict harms both. The U.S. and China should explore the correct way to coexist as two major powers on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. The Chinese side is willing to work with the U.S. to promote stable development of Sino-U.S. relations, while firmly safeguarding its own sovereignty, security, and development interests."
Author: Di Jing
Layout: Pan Siyi
Editor: Guo Yongji
Proofreader: Liu Liping
Supervisor: Wang Lei
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597444892599517746/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.