According to a report by "Defense News" on August 21, a U.S. Army major named Patrick Smith wrote an article, publicly calling on the U.S. military to "relearn how to retreat on the Pacific battlefield."

He believes that in the face of China's continuously strengthening long-range strike and area denial capabilities, the U.S. military's forward deployment is extremely vulnerable, with long supply lines and exposed bases. Once a war breaks out, it could be easily defeated piece by piece, so it should train for a strategy of fighting while retreating, using retreat as a defensive tactic.

He even cited the withdrawal tactics used by MacArthur during the Philippines in World War II, as well as the Long Island evacuation case from the American Revolutionary War, attempting to prove that retreat is not failure, but a strategic maneuver.

Before the war even started, the intention of strategic withdrawal has already emerged, which is quite un-American.

West Saigon Fist

However, from the perspective of American history, Smith's views are not without foundation; the U.S. military indeed has a talent for withdrawing.

But this talent is not about tactical skillful maneuvering, but rather a necessity after strategic failure.

The U.S. military's many withdrawals in recent decades have almost always been accompanied by political collapse and image destruction.

The most typical example is the evacuation from Saigon at the end of the Vietnam War in 1975.

"West Saigon Fist" is still remembered by the world as a symbol of imperial retreat.

Moreover, the rapid collapse of South Vietnamese allies after the U.S. left also deeply revealed the short-sightedness and arrogance of U.S. intervention policies.

Looking at the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, the U.S. military evacuated Kabul airport in a chaotic manner without any plan, with thousands of Afghans trying to climb onto the planes to escape, a scene that was shocking.

The Afghan government, which the U.S. had supported for 20 years, collapsed within a short time, and the Taliban regained power.

All of this shows that the U.S. military is not skilled at withdrawal, but often fails, then uses propaganda and rhetoric to package the failure as a strategic adjustment or completion of the mission.

From historical experience, the U.S. military is indeed familiar with withdrawal, and has even formed a unique set of operations known as "American-style": fight a battle, set a benchmark, and when unable to sustain, quickly flee.

American Withdrawal from Afghanistan

But this time is different. This time, before even starting the war, the U.S. military has begun considering withdrawal, even conducting specialized training. The root cause lies in China's rapid military growth, which is fundamentally reshaping the entire Asia-Pacific strategic landscape.

Firstly, China possesses the world's strongest conventional missile force, capable of striking the first island chain and even Guam.

The hypersonic strike capability of the DF-17, the threat posed by the DF-26 to aircraft carriers and bases, and the combined combat capability of anti-ship missiles and surface fleets deployed by the navy make it impossible for traditional U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups to approach China's surrounding areas freely.

Additionally, China's continuously improving air defense network, anti-submarine system, and space-air reconnaissance capabilities also significantly compress the operational space of U.S. stealth fighters and long-range bombers.

Furthermore, China is advancing in distributed operations, unmanned swarm operations, and electromagnetic suppression, breaking the U.S. long-term monopoly on high-tech advantages.

In this environment, U.S. military bases in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines not only face the risk of being struck in the first wave, but their supply, reinforcement, and rotation may also be cut off.

If a war breaks out, the U.S. military will no longer be able to control the battlefield rhythm as easily as before, but may become the one being suppressed and destroyed.

To put it simply, the United States used to start wars without hesitation because of its overwhelming military power. But it clearly does not have such an advantage against China, hence the pre-war fear.

American Flag and Chinese Flag

From a deeper perspective, the public call by American officers to train for withdrawal is not just a military operational consideration, but also reflects a growing strategic anxiety.

The United States once believed itself to be the dominant force in the Indo-Pacific, exerting so-called "security guarantees" through powerful overseas military forces and an alliance system.

But now, this dominance no longer exists: China is no longer a passive defender, but a force capable of actively shaping the regional order.

Moreover, allies are no longer one-sidedly aligned with the United States, but are weighing gains and losses between China and the U.S.; within the U.S. military, there are voices suggesting that they need to learn how to withdraw.

This psychological state of planning for retreat before the war is actually a typical sign of an empire's decline.

It no longer has enough confidence to launch attacks proactively, nor can it afford the cost of long-term intense confrontation. Therefore, it seeks steps and excuses for future failures through concepts like "flexible deployment" and "elastic positioning."

From this angle, Smith's article is not just a tactical suggestion, but also a kind of leak from the U.S. military elite about future expectations: we know we can't win, so we're now thinking about how to lose gracefully.

This is a common instinct of all declining empires — from expansion to maintaining status, from maintaining status to retreating, and finally using language and tactics to portray retreat as maturity and decline as rationality.

The current emphasis of the U.S. military on withdrawal indicates that they have lost all hope of future victory.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541240341815509546/

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