【By Observer News, Chen Sijia】 Recently, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting was held in South Korea. On one hand, South Korea seeks to improve relations with China and deepen trade ties, while on the other hand, it attempts to strengthen its military alliance with the United States. Some people believe that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has found a balance between China and the U.S., which is a "diplomatic victory."

However, analysts have expressed concerns, believing that South Korea "opened the champagne too early." Hong Kong English media "South China Morning Post" published an article on November 3, stating that the current balance South Korea maintains between the U.S. and China is very fragile, especially South Korea's attempt to build nuclear-powered submarines may once again disrupt Sino-South Korean relations. South Korean scholars point out that the Yoon government wants to "please both sides," but could also face pressure from both China and the U.S. in economic and security aspects.

During U.S. President Trump's visit to South Korea, South Korea and the U.S. basically finalized a trade agreement. The U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on South Korean goods to 15%, while South Korea agreed to invest 200 billion USD in stages using cash, with an annual investment limit of 20 billion USD. South Korea also pledged to use 150 billion USD for shipbuilding cooperation, including guarantees, investments by South Korean companies, and ship financing.

Regarding relations with China, according to reports by South Korean media, the cooperation text signed this time between China and South Korea includes one formal agreement and six memorandums of understanding, covering areas such as trade and economy, finance, agriculture, law enforcement, and technology.

Specifically, the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed their bilateral currency swap agreement, with an amount of 400 billion yuan RMB / 70 trillion KRW, and the agreement is valid for five years. President Yoon stated that this move helps stabilize the financial markets and trade between the two countries. He also promised to accelerate the negotiations on the second phase of the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, covering areas such as services and investments.

China and South Korea also signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the fields of "silver industry" and "innovative startups" to promote future cooperation, and the two countries also signed a memorandum of understanding to promote the export of South Korean agricultural products to China.

President Yoon Suk-yeol IC photo

According to analysts, the interaction between China and South Korea during the APEC meeting indicates that both countries are willing to improve bilateral relations. However, South Korea's efforts to strengthen its military alliance with the U.S. and seek to develop nuclear-powered submarines may once again disrupt Sino-South Korean relations.

On October 29, when Yoon met with Trump, he requested the U.S. to provide nuclear fuel needed for nuclear-powered submarines. Yoon specifically mentioned China, claiming that conventional-powered submarines "are difficult to track Chinese and North Korean submarines." On October 30, Trump announced his approval of the request, stating that the U.S. would share nuclear propulsion technology with South Korea to help the South Korean Navy build at least one nuclear-powered submarine.

Subsequently, South Korea tried to downplay Yoon's statements. On November 3, Kim Hoon-ki, the head of the presidential office, said that South Korea's pursuit of building a nuclear-powered submarine is not to fuel a "arms race," and that South Korea has assured both China and the U.S. that the construction of nuclear submarines is to "respond to North Korea's nuclear submarine plans."

Regarding whether the U.S. will provide nuclear fuel for South Korea's nuclear-powered submarines, and whether South Korea can conduct uranium enrichment for military purposes, the South Korean Ministry of Defense spokesperson on the 3rd stated that South Korea and the U.S. need to have more discussions.

Professor Joo Jae-woo from Kyung Hee University said that when South Korea decided to deploy the U.S. "THAAD" anti-missile system in 2016, Sino-South Korean relations were severely damaged. "The THAAD issue remains an obstacle to bilateral relations. Therefore, South Korea's plan to build a nuclear-powered submarine may further escalate tensions with China," he said.

Joo Jae-woo believes that the balance South Korea maintains between the U.S. and China is very fragile, and he is worried that South Korea "opened the champagne too early."

Professor Kang Joon-young from the Korea University of Foreign Studies analyzed that the APEC meeting did not touch upon some "very thorny issues," and South Korea's attempt to build nuclear-powered submarines needs to face China's security concerns, and may also face resistance from the U.S. Congress.

Regarding the discussion between South Korea and the U.S. on nuclear-powered submarines, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiankun stated on October 30 that China has noted the relevant situation. China hopes that both sides will fulfill their nuclear non-proliferation obligations and do things that promote regional peace and stability, rather than the opposite.

In terms of economic and trade issues, Professor Hye-jin from Sogang University pointed out that the APEC meeting eased uncertainties in economic and trade areas, but also indicated that the world "will not return to the previous era of free trade," and China will no longer accept the U.S. unilaterally issuing orders.

He pointed out that South Korea's export-oriented economy is highly dependent on trade with China and the U.S., and relies on U.S. military protection in terms of security. However, under the current international situation, "the balancing act of South Korea surviving between two superpowers has become increasingly unstable."

Hye-jin also warned that the significant increase in South Korean investments in the U.S. could lead to a decline in domestic investment capabilities, thus affecting South Korea's manufacturing industry. He said, "Investment flowing to the U.S. will crowd out domestic investment, weakening South Korea's growth potential."

Professor Leif-Eric Easley from Ewha Womans University also believes that the consensus reached by China and the U.S. on trade and tariff issues shows that China is willing to negotiate with the U.S., but will not yield to Trump's tariff policies. As an ally of the U.S., South Korea may still be affected by Chinese countermeasures, "it needs to expand cooperation on supply chain resilience."

The "Gyeongyang Sinmun" newspaper published an editorial on the 3rd, stating that China and South Korea have made significant progress in economic and livelihood cooperation, which will strengthen service and trade exchanges and cooperation. Based on the "horizontal cooperation structure," they will develop mutually beneficial relationships. However, to achieve mutual benefit, the South Korean government must ensure that it does not anger China on issues such as nuclear-powered submarines and increasing the "strategic flexibility" of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.

"Gyeongyang Sinmun" believes that Yoon took the first step towards improving relations with China through "pragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests." Although the international situation is ever-changing, South Korea needs to develop relations with China based on mutual respect for core interests, and expand cooperation with a "seeking common ground while reserving differences" attitude.

The "Hankook Minghak Daily" analysis states that the more difficult and fundamental problem facing the current South Korean government is how to adjust the relationship with the U.S. alliance while establishing a stable relationship with China. As Yoon said, economic cooperation between the two countries is shifting from a "vertical division of labor structure" to a "horizontal cooperation structure." In this context, if the role of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea changes from "defending South Korea" to "containing China," Sino-South Korean relations will face major challenges.

The paper believes that if South Korea cannot maintain the balance it has achieved between China and the U.S., it may face the risk of being isolated by both China and the U.S., "South Korea will no longer have a future."

Chung Jae-hyung, director of the China Research Center at the Sejong Institute, told Observer News that although Yoon's election brought some hope for Sino-South Korean relations, the current international situation is indeed complex and changing, especially after the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, the entire peninsula situation has become more complicated. Under such circumstances, the development of Sino-South Korean relations is largely constrained by the intensification of the competition between China and the U.S.

Chung believes that the recovery and improvement of Sino-South Korean relations may not only depend on the two countries themselves, but there are also very complex structural factors behind it - some people hope that Sino-South Korean relations improve, but others do not want to see Sino-South Korean relations becoming too close. This reality of competition and confrontation always exists and cannot be ignored.

This article is exclusive to Observer News, and without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7568515029075624499/

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