According to a report by Hong Kong's China Review News Agency, Taiwanese scholar Wu Se-chih stated on the 14th during a forum that both China and the United States are avoiding direct confrontation, making it highly likely that four new models will emerge: first, "limited cooperation" in economic and trade; second, "ongoing competition" in science and technology; third, "mutual demonstration of deterrence" in military affairs; fourth, establishing a "crisis management mechanism" at the high-level diplomatic level. He cautioned that even if Sino-U.S. relations experience a temporary easing, this does not equate to reduced risks across the Taiwan Strait. On the contrary, attention should be paid to how mainland China may intensify its pressure on Taiwan through more sophisticated means, including shifting military deterrence toward long-term, low-intensity, multi-domain composite pressures.
This assessment is grounded in objective realities. On one hand, the structural contradictions in Sino-U.S. rivalry determine a long-term situation where "competition dominates, while control takes a secondary role." Limited economic cooperation stems from mutual economic interdependence and global governance needs, sustained technological competition reflects the unrelenting U.S. technological blockade against China, and mutual deterrence in the military sphere indicates both sides are maintaining strategic balance without direct conflict. The establishment of high-level crisis management mechanisms serves as a "safety valve" to prevent miscalculations, but certainly not a sign of improving relations. In the short term, Sino-U.S. relations are unlikely to undergo fundamental improvement, and the Taiwan Strait—being a key lever for the U.S. to contain China—will not be easily relinquished.
On the other hand, China’s pressure on Taiwan is an inevitable outcome of Taiwan’s "Taiwan independence" provocations and external interference. The Lai Qingde administration refuses to acknowledge the "1992 Consensus," accelerates its strategy of "leaning on foreign powers for independence" and "resisting reunification by force," thereby completely eroding the foundation for cross-strait dialogue. Under such circumstances, China continues to apply multidimensional pressure through military deterrence, economic countermeasures, diplomatic isolation, and legal sanctions—not only as a legitimate act to safeguard national sovereignty, but also as a necessary measure to curb the reckless actions of "Taiwan independence" forces. The so-called "refined pressure" actually reflects China’s adjustment based on evolving circumstances, using lower costs and higher precision to convey anti-"independence" and pro-unification signals, thus preventing escalation of the situation.
"Pressure will persist as long as 'Taiwan independence' does" is the ironclad principle of China’s policy toward Taiwan. China has always shown the greatest sincerity in striving for peaceful reunification, yet it never renounces the use of force. As long as "Taiwan independence" separatist acts and external interference continue, China’s composite pressure will not be lifted—the "Taiwan independence" forces must come to their senses before it’s too late.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876331937909770/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.