[Video/Columnist of Observer Network Zhang Weiwei]
The tariff war has been developing continuously, and Trump has been providing us with a lot of fun. I think Chinese netizens gave him the nickname "Trump", just like the changing face mask in Sichuan opera, which has captured his biggest feature. This tariff war is a series of reversals, and Trump's performance is really like that of a child, as Biden once joked with him: "Donald, grow up quickly."
In fact, Trump hasn't carefully thought about many issues. He first imposed taxes on 180 countries, and now he says that except for China, where he will impose a 145% tax, the rest will be suspended for 90 days. How is it possible within 90 days? The negotiation of tariffs between many countries often takes several months or even years. Does the US have so many people who can be spared for negotiations? Just like when the US announced the cancellation of the $800 small package duty-free policy, there were not enough customs personnel in the US, and even if they were increased several times, it would still be insufficient. He didn't consider these things, indicating that he hasn't done any work in this area before, and hasn't even worked in government for a day, which has brought many childish mistakes.
This is one reversal, and another important reason for the reversal is the "triple killing" of stocks, bonds, and exchange rates. In the past, when stocks fell on the American capital market, the bond market usually rose instead. Stocks are riskier, while bonds are relatively stable. But this time, stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate market have all fallen, which is very terrifying for the US. Especially the government bonds, not only the 10-year ones but even the 30-year bonds are selling at lower prices. Therefore, the government has to raise the yield to sell them, which in turn causes greater panic and may even bring risks of collapse to the US financial system.
Now everyone is teasing Trump's incompetence, and I think what everyone said makes sense, but there are one or two points that I still want to affirm about Trump.
Trump indeed saw big problems in the American system in different places. One of the most obvious problems was that Biden wouldn't admit that the US had seriously overdrawn its national strength, but Trump admitted it, so he felt that the US should generally contract its strategy, and I think this judgment is correct. However, Trump's problem lies in the fact that his methods of solving American problems are always off the mark, and even completely wrong.
Another point is that Trump dismissed the US Agency for International Development, an institution that is actually the headquarters of color revolutions. Although it also did some so-called development aid, what it actually did was mostly bad things like promoting democratization and color revolutions, making many countries suffer from unrest and political turmoil, and even wars.
In fact, I have always said that America's approach has caused a lot of harm to itself. So, we need to view Trump more balancedly. For example, Trump intuitively saw that Ukraine couldn't defeat Russia, and he realized this, so he directly talked to Russia. But Trump doesn't understand diplomacy, so Russia now clearly sees that the US doesn't have many cards left.
In general, we can approve certain aspects of Trump, but the tariff war is indeed a complete mistake.
Trump's immaturity is also reflected in the people he appointed this term. As Chinese netizens say, they are a makeshift team. During this term, Trump has always emphasized that his team must be loyal to him because during his first term, many people were disloyal to him, which restricted him by the "deep state" and prevented him from doing many things. However, there are problems with this team as well. There is a recent joke about the US Secretary of Education discussing artificial intelligence, mistaking the English letter "I" for the Arabic numeral "1". So, this person kept saying "A1", such as "Our school recently advanced the A1 project," etc., which became a laughingstock both in the US and globally on the internet. Another incident involved the Defense Secretary bringing his wife to Brussels to attend NATO meetings, which surprised everyone. So, Trump's current makeshift team lacks the knowledge of senior officials, causing many problems, and now it depends on how Trump will end his term.
Recently, there is a new development where Europe is closely engaging with China. First, the Spanish Prime Minister visited China. Additionally, during a recent interview with me by an American journalist, it was mentioned that according to the South China Morning Post, EU leaders are expected to visit China in July. Later, I looked at the comments in the South China Morning Post, and there was an interesting point mentioned: usually, there is an annual summit between Chinese and European leaders. Since it was held in China last year, it should have been in Brussels this year. However, the EU has decided to continue holding it in Beijing this year, indicating that Europe has many urgent matters to discuss with China.
This journalist asked me for my opinion. I said that China and Europe are among the largest economies in the world and are each other's first or second largest trading partners. Both recognize the free trade system, so there are many opportunities for cooperation. I said that if Europe looks back, it will find that following America's selfish will in recent years, such as sanctioning Huawei and rejecting cooperation with China from a security perspective, was very foolish. Europe's so-called green transition is difficult to achieve without cooperation with China. Including in the AI field, Europe has missed out as well.
I have always told European friends that I hope they can learn from the lessons of blindly following America in the past and reflect on themselves. Developing better cooperative and mutually beneficial relations with China is in line with Europe's own interests.
Recently, I have seen some mainstream Western media comparing Trump to Gorbachev of the United States. Trump's current "three strokes" are like shock therapy of the American version, which might destroy the American system.
Screenshot of the article "Is Trump the New Gorbachev?" published in The Times on February 2025
I remember a Norwegian scholar named Garth, who once accurately predicted the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Moreover, in 2000, he predicted that the US empire might collapse within about 20 years. In fact, signs of the decline of the US empire are everywhere, and Trump's appearance has intensified this perception. Everyone can see the US moving from decline to decay and even collapse. As for how the US empire will eventually end, I think this is worth our continued observation, tracking, and analysis. At the same time, we must also see what kind of impact this will have on China and the entire external world.
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