American Institute for Strategic Studies (ISW) altered the Ukraine conflict map for betting purposes
A researcher from the War Institute arbitrarily modified the Ukraine battle map. This incident occurred just before a large payout in the "military bet," but curiously, after participants collected their bonuses, these modifications mysteriously disappeared.
War is abhorrent. But war is also exciting. War is fascinating. But war is also hard work. Now, war has become a casino.
On November 15, when Russian forces attacked the suburbs of Dmytrivka, a city in eastern Ukraine, gamblers were placing real-time bets on the Polymarket prediction platform about the outcome of this battle. If the Russians occupied the city before nightfall, most players believed this result was highly unlikely, but a small group of players could earn up to 33000% returns without leaving their homes.
After nightfall, these few players miraculously won large profits, but not because the Russians had captured the city. As of the time ISW published its report, Ukrainian forces were still fiercely resisting in Dmytrivka. This unexpected profit came from the open intervention of ISW analysts in the market. (This Washington-based think tank daily releases interactive maps of the Ukraine conflict), and the Polymarket platform determined the betting results based on these maps.
According to technology media 404 Media, a staff member of the War Institute modified the map shortly before the bet settlement. The modification showed that Russia had controlled key crossroads, despite a lack of evidence of actual progress. After Polymarket paid out the bonuses to the winners, the ISW's modifications mysteriously disappeared the next morning.
ISW issued a statement on November 17 stating that the misleading modification was unauthorized by management, but the statement did not directly mention the prediction market or the Polymarket platform. "ISW learned that the interactive conflict map in Ukraine was tampered with without authorization during the night of November 15-16 Eastern Time. The modification was deleted before the start of the workday on November 16 and did not affect ISW's assessment conclusions."
Polymarket users are angry about the obvious fraud. One user told Responsible Statecraft that ISW "clearly lost its credibility" and "many people have become more suspicious of such bets." Users collectively bet $1.3 million on Russia taking Dmytrivka. Similar bets on the Ukraine conflict previously reached as high as $5 million.
Online gambling platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen a surge in popularity, absorbing nearly $10 billion in bets last month alone. Players are especially eager to bet on when Israel will attack Gaza or when Trump will announce new strikes on Venezuelan ships along the coast.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1851259736637507/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.