Some people in Turkey believe that the Sino-US trade war is an opportunity for their rise. Is it really the case?

At present, the Sino-US trade war is raging, and while Trump has colluded with dozens of countries to restrict trade cooperation with China, Turkey has stepped forward.

According to the Turkish Foreign Minister, Turkey possesses advantages such as proximity to Europe, strong production capacity, and logistics. Therefore, he believes that the Sino-US trade war presents an opportunity for Turkey.

Hakan Cavdar, the Turkish Foreign Minister

On the surface, what the Turkish Foreign Minister said makes sense. Turkey spans both Europe and Asia, and its manufacturing capabilities are also very strong. In Turkey's view, the reason why the Sino-US trade war is seen as an opportunity is because both sides have imposed high tariffs on each other's goods, leading to a "hard decoupling" in trade.

Then, if one wants to continue exporting goods to either country while minimizing losses, they can only rely on re-export trade.

Currently, according to the list of tariffs imposed by Trump, the rate for Turkey is 10%. To some extent, this is also one of Turkey's advantages.

In other words, Turkey may want to act as a middleman for trade, or even as a manufacturer of goods. To put it bluntly, Turkey wants to become the second Vietnam. Moreover, the Turkish Foreign Minister revealed that many companies are considering relocating their supply chains to Turkey.

Port trade

At this point, two questions need to be considered. First, if Turkey's trade surplus with the US continues to expand, what will happen if Trump imposes higher reciprocal tariffs on Turkey?

Just like Vietnam now, Trump plans to impose over 40% reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam. If Vietnam complies, its economy will plummet.

The same applies to Turkey. While this is indeed an opportunity for Turkey to engage in re-export trade, Vietnam today could very well be Turkey's future tomorrow.

Turkey needs to consider this carefully. The ultimate goal behind Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs is to eliminate trade deficits with other countries.

The Turkish economy

The second question is, how should Turkey avoid being hit if the US intensifies its crackdown on re-export trade? In short, these two problems are unsolvable.

If we consider this more deeply, the Foreign Minister's remarks might also be helping the US, aiming to replace China's position in the supply chain. After all, if a supply chain alternative country can be found, then the US containment circle around China would be complete.

However, there is another issue here. Given Turkey's national scale, replacing China is highly unlikely. It's worth noting that Turkey's annual GDP doesn't even rank in the top three among Chinese provinces.

In recent years, we have seen some large enterprises relocate their supply chains to Vietnam, but this hasn't shaken China's status as the world's largest manufacturing country.

Therefore, the Foreign Minister's statement makes sense in the short term, but it remains impractical in the long run.

US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Moreover, from the perspective of Western countries, Turkey is viewed with caution. If we were to make an analogy, Turkey is like India in the Indo-Pacific region. It measures its interactions with other countries solely by profit.

Although Turkey is a NATO member, when Western countries are targeting Russia, Turkey can disregard opposition and engage in relations with Russia. This "non-conformist" nature ensures that cooperation between Western businesses and Turkey is full of uncertainties.

So, stepping back a hundred steps, even if such opportunities are tempting, how Turkey can earn trust remains a significant challenge.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496048256221184564/

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