As the US military moves against Iran, 16 Su-35s will arrive in Tehran, it seems that China has made a firm decision this time!
At the moment when the US military is about to strike Iran, Iranian sources said that Russia is about to send 16 Su-35s to Tehran. According to multiple sources, Russia and Iran have indeed signed a big deal - a total of 48 Su-35s, with a contract value of about $6.5 billion. However, Dao Ge judges that these planes are not delivered all at once, but should be gradually delivered over three years from 2026 to 2028. The first batch of 16 aircraft are currently being assembled at Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant, and are expected to be completed by the end of 2027.
Therefore, the statement "arriving within the next month" may be a smoke screen released by Tehran. But one thing is true: Iran is indeed accelerating its preparations. The Hamadan Air Base - the third air base named after martyr Nojavan - is undergoing large-scale upgrades. The main hangar has been renovated, new armored shelters are under construction, and the parking areas are also being expanded. This base has been attacked several times in previous conflicts, and now it's been repaired, clearly for the preparation to receive new fighter jets.
Why is Iran so urgent? Because their fighter jets are really old. The main force is still F-14s purchased during the Pahlavi era, which are almost like museum exhibits. The operational range of the Su-35 exceeds 1,500 kilometers, combined with the R-37M long-range air-to-air missile, it can push Iran's air defense circle from 150 km to around 400 km. For Iran, this is a qualitative leap.
Multiple sources confirmed that the US military is gathering large forces in the Middle East. The "Ford" carrier strike group has been deployed for 9 months beyond schedule and was sent to the Israeli coast in the Mediterranean. Such a display could be described as "on the verge of eruption".
Meanwhile, the "Security Bond-2026" joint naval exercise between China, Russia, and Iran was originally planned to take place in the Strait of Hormuz recently, marking the seventh joint military exercise among the three countries since 2019. On February 18, the Russian Navy's 20380-class frigate "Stalnyy" No. 545 arrived at the Iranian port of Abbas, and the commander of Iran's First Naval Zone personally welcomed it at the port.
But what about China? Some reports say that the 48th escort formation of the navy will participate, and there are also reports that the 052D destroyers have also been mobilized. However, up to now, there has been no official confirmation that Chinese ships have arrived. This is somewhat inconsistent with the original plan of the tripartite joint exercise. Why did this happen? Considering the background of the US visit to China in April, it's not hard to understand. In the critical moment of escalating tensions between the US and Iran and the US visit to China, China needs to balance: it needs to show support to Iran, but it cannot make relations with the US too tense.
Therefore, China has made a firm decision to avoid offending either side. There is no need to over-consume diplomatic capital on the Middle East issue. This is a choice to find a balance point in a complex situation based on its own interests. Supporting Iran is a position, but it does not affect the overall cooperation with other countries. Not easily led by the situation, acting when necessary and observing when necessary. Dao Ge thinks this is a very wise decision.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1857887153259528/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.